Three Things That Have to Go Right for Detroit to Make the Playoffs

How Alex Lyon, veteran solidity, and special teams afford the Red Wings a viable path to the postseason on the heels of a difficult road trip

Last night in Tampa, the Red Wings completed a difficult five-game road trip with a 4-2 win over the Lightning. During those five games, Detroit had to play five playoff teams, and the Red Wings didn't exactly cover themselves in glory in amassing a 1-2-2 but they did enough to go into the final seven games of the regular season.

Though Detroit swept the season series, Tampa (fourth place in the Atlantic Division, good for the East's first wild card) will be difficult to catch with 89 points from 74 games played, so the Red Wings (75 games played, 82 points) will have to focus their playoff aspirations on the line between third and fourth place in the Metropolitan Division.

Third will be good for an automatic playoff spot, so Detroit will need to ensure it is better than the Metro's fourth place finisher to secure its own place in the postseason. As it stands, Philadelphia is third in the Metro by raw points (83 in 76 games played), but the Capitals (82 points in 73 games played) lead by points percentage.

What will it take for the Red Wings to overcome those margins and slip into the playoffs? In terms of results, beating Washington in regulation a week from today is imperative, but in terms of process, three factors stand out in determining Detroit's playoff fate: Alex Lyon's form, the ability of the Red Wings' veterans to provide a steady presence, and special teams executing better than they did Monday night.

I. Alex Lyon Stays Sharp

Last night, Alex Lyon snapped a 10-game personal losing streak by making 34 saves on 36 shots against the Lightning, good for a Goals Saved Above Expected of 1.11 per MoneyPuck.com. Though the last two losses during that winless run came in OT, Lyon also conceded four plus goals in seven of those games. To get over the finish line in a playoff position, Detroit will need Lyon to build on last night's form.

After the game, Derek Lalonde called him "excellent," adding that Lyon "feels back on tops of his game. When he looks sharp like that, I think he exudes a ton of confidence for our group, and that was the case tonight." David Perron called Lyon "unbelievable" and the "best player on the ice." Lyon himself laughed with relief at snapping his losing skid, saying "For me, it's very satisfying. It's been a while."

The Red Wings can't count on Lyon to deliver a .944 save percentage every night, but it might take something close to that to push Detroit into a playoff position.

As Prashanth Iyer noted on Twitter, there is precedent to suggest that Lyon is up to the task. With eight games left last season, the Florida Panthers were three points back of a wild card position; Lyon proceeded to go 6-1-1 with a .943 save percentage over those final eight games, and Florida made the playoffs then marched on all the way to the Stanley Cup Final.

For the Red Wings to make a similar late season surge into the postseason, they will need the best of Lyon. He provided it Monday in Tampa; now he'll need to keep it going.

II. Veterans Provide Stability

Since the very first day of training camp, the words that have defined these Red Wings are "added depth." Detroit has high-profile, star-caliber players, but team success had to involve a certain measure of scoring by committee without an 120-point superstar available to the nightly lineup. The Red Wings believed they could compete more quickly with veteran players than by setting youngsters free to fail through some growing pains, and they've signed a bevy of them in the last two free agent cycles.

This season, we've seen moments where that veteran presence paid serious dividends in a campaign that has largely exceeded expectations, but those veterans have also been involved in some of the year's low points. Now, with the season hanging in the balance, Detroit needs the best of those veterans to provide the solidity necessary to fight into a playoff spot. The Red Wings certainly got it last night in Tampa, with two veterans who have not always been popular within the team's fan base paving the way.

David Perron was excellent for Detroit, scoring the game-winning goal in the closing minutes of regulation, but the Red Wings also needed the example of his relentless effort to close out the win over the Lightning, which manifested not just in the game-winner but also in moments like blocking a shot then battling every inch of the way to clear the zone after a sustained spell of Tampa pressure in the third.

"He does a lot of things right all the time," said Lalonde of Perron after the game. "He's an emotional leader for us. No one wants it more than him, and he's been huge by example. It's one thing to talk, but he's doing it by example, and I'm glad he got rewarded with some offense there at the end."

Meanwhile, Jeff Petry—another frequent veteran scapegoat within Detroit's fan base—made a crucial play in the second half of the third period when he pulled a puck that Brayden Point had slipped past Lyon off the goal line with just millimeters to spare. It took two swipes to get the puck out of danger, but in doing so, Petry showed the sort of veteran poise Lalonde will be looking for down the stretch.

If players like Perron and Petry continue to deliver the way they did Monday night, it will go a long way toward the Red Wings fighting their way above the playoff line.

III. Special Teams Pick Up

As much as hockey tends toward randomness, it's not too difficult to localize the outcome of any individual game in two factors: goaltending and special teams. If you get the better of both, you'll win a lot more often than not, and that's what Detroit needs. We talked about Lyon above—a clear bright spot in last night's gritty victory, but one area where the Red Wings will need to improve on last night's effort if they want that elusive eighth playoff spot is special teams.

The Lightning out-classed Detroit on special teams last night, scoring on one of their three power play attempts, while denying all three Red Wing man advantage, scoring a short-handed goal, and coming a matter of inches from another.

Tampa's short-handed goal came from a failed Detroit zone entry, which have been a major issue for the Red Wings power play of late. Detroit has just six power play goals in its last 10 games, and the Red Wings' best hockey of the year has consistently come with the power play at its best.

Look no further than the start to 2024. In January, the power play clicked at 27.8%, and Detroit earned a .769 points percentage. In February, both numbers cooled but only slightly to 26.7% and .700. In March, both figures cratered together: 22.0% on the PP and a .286 points percentage. When the Red Wings have won in bunches this year, the power play has been humming, so to amass the points they need over the season's seven remaining games, it stands to reason that the power play will have to heat up quickly.

Tampa's power play entered the night scoring hot, and there's no shame in conceding to a unit that now has 11 power play goals in its last 10 games. However, as with the power play, it's hard to ignore the connection between a successful penalty and winning for Detroit. Perhaps an even clearer way to see this connection is through its contrapositive: in March, the Red Wings had their worst month of the season on the PK, killing off opposition power plays at just a 74.4% success rate. The result? A season low .286 points percentage.

April will have to be much better than March was down a man for Detroit to get into the playoffs. One positive on the PK to emerge from last night was Simon Edvinsson. It's the skating and puck play that have Red Wings fans salivating over Edvinsson's potential, but his defensive efforts have been arguably the strength of his game during his latest call-up. Last night while short-handed, Edvinsson showed a willingness to get physical to kill plays below the goal line and used the comic reach his six-foot-six frame affords to disrupt would be zone entries and cross-seam passes alike.