Oilers' Skinner Will Not Fall Victim to the Sophomore Slump
Can the Edmonton Oilers' Calder Trophy Finalist deliver even better results next season?
The Edmonton Oilers have two incredibly capable goaltenders heading into the 2023-24 regular season. The veteran Jack Campbell had a rough 2022-23 and will be looking to bounce back from his lacklustre performance. Stuart Skinner on the other hand, will be looking to build on his Calder Trophy Finalist season.
We'll take a look at the last three goaltenders to get nominated for the Calder Trophy and how they faired in the year after their nomination. This may give us some data points to see what the likelihood is for Skinner to regress in his second NHL season. For a refresher, the last three goalies (before Skinner) to be a Calder Finalist and not win the award are Alex Nedeljovic, Jordan Binnington, and Jimmy Howard.
Nedeljovic had a phenomenal rookie season. He only played 23 games but still managed a 1.90 goals against average (GAA) and a .923 save percentage (SV%). His next season was not on the same level. He could only muster a 3.31 GAA and .901 SV%. He also changed teams, going from the Carolina Hurricanes to the Detroit Red Wings. The following season he struggled again, spending a lot of time with the Red Wings AHL affiliate, the Grand Rapids Griffins.
Similarly, Binnington was praised for his rookie year. In 32 games he held onto a 1.89 GAA and a .927 SV%. That helped the St. Louis Blues make the playoffs in the 2018-19 season. His performance in the playoffs was a big reason why they won the Stanley Cup. His stat line of 2.46 GAA & .914 SV% gave the Blues above average goaltending on the road to securing their championship.
Binnington did very well in his next two seasons. Sporting a 2.56 & 2.65 GAA for the two seasons along with .912 & .910 SV%. His numbers were not as strong but he also played 50 & 42 games during those years. For those years he proved that he was not a one-hit wonder or the beneficiary of a great defensive team.
Howard is arguably the most impressive rookie of these three - posting a 2.26 GAA and a .924 SV% while playing 63 games. That is almost double what Binnington played in his rookie year. Howard went through some ebbs and flows for the duration of his career, but didn't fall off until the very end of his career. His last two seasons he had a GAA higher than 3.00 and his last season is the only time in his career that his SV% was lower than .908%. His career average GAA and SV% are 2.62 & .912, respectively.
We have a mixed bag of results here. Nedeljovic has struggled to find a rhythm since his rookie year, Binnington started strong and has fizzled out of late, and Howard was a consistently good goalie his entire career. This bodes well for Skinner that only one of these three goalies went through a slump in their sophomore season. We may see a slight regression from his 2.73 GAA and .914 SV% to something like 2.85 GAA and a .910 SV%. Those are not terrible numbers, but we should maintain reasonable expectations for the 24-year old netminder.
Related: Oilers 2023 Off-Season Guide