The two teams split last year's season series 1-1.
The two teams split last year's season series 1-1.
This morning was one of Edmonton's coldest of the fall so far, but a bigger storm is coming tonight.
Coming off a loss to the Dallas Stars on Saturday, the Oilers have another big test ahead of them in the form of the Carolina Hurricanes.
Both teams came into the season as the favourites in their divisions and occupy the top tier of Stanley Cup contenders, but haven't started the season the way they hoped.
The Oilers, of course, are 2-4 with a 30th-place goal differential of -12. The Hurricanes, coming off a busy offseason that saw them lose Jake Guentzel, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei, are 2-2 to start the year.
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzDmggMCz8M[/embed]
Despite their slow starts, this is a matchup between the league's top two even-strength teams, with the Oilers' 60.34% expected goals percentage placing behind only the Hurricanes' 64.46%. Unfortunately for these two contenders, expected goals don't go on the scoreboard, and you don't get to play the whole game at five-on-five.
For the Oilers especially, that sparkling xG% is a hollow victory, as they've only scored 38% of the real goals at even strength. That falls to 33.33% in all situations, thanks to a leaky penalty kill and a punchless powerplay.
The Oilers have been disappointing on almost all fronts this season, from the special teams to the goaltending to the finishing. They'll have to improve in all facets of the game to beat the Hurricanes because hard work won't cut it against Rod Brind-Amour's squad.
Carolina has always been a tough, structured, hard-working team that clamps things down in the defensive zone and forechecks the opponent into submission on offence. It's a combination that leads to a lot of low-scoring games, and a lot of perimeter shots on both sides.
That hasn't held true against the Oilers over the past couple of seasons, however. The past four games between these teams have seen 35 combined goals, with the winner netting at least 6 in each game. While the games themselves have been blowouts, they've gone both ways: they're both 2-2, splitting both season series.
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fs5iS3kv02E[/embed]
Whether the Oilers can repeat the result of their last matchup -- a 6-1 win at home in December -- might depend on who Carolina puts in between the pipes. Both Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov are 1-1 this year, but Andersen carries a .936 save percentage to Kochetkov's .867. After being shut down by Jake Oettinger over the weekend, a date with a struggling Kochetkov could jumpstart the Oilers' flailing offence.
The Hurricanes have had their own struggles at turning expected goals into real ones, but that's more of a feature than a bug in their system. They throw a lot of pucks at the net, often in the form of point shots from Brent Burns. A team that creates so much shot volume surely loves the idea of facing a team with an .851 save percentage.
For Stuart Skinner, the hope is that turning away a barrage of low-percentage shots can improve his confidence -- something that has been cited as a possible problem with the Hurricanes' volume-heavy approach. For that to happen though, he'll need to actually make the saves.
For an Oiler team that's played better than their record but just can't catch a break, this matchup with Carolina is an opportunity to show that they still belong to the league's upper tier. The 'Canes won't make it easy, but who said it should be easy?
The puck drops on tonight's game at 7:00 PM MT.
Bookmark The Hockey News Edmonton Oilers team site to never miss news, interviews, or any other updates on the Oilers.
Related: Oilers Have Precious Few Options In Net
Related: Oilers' Playoff Odds Have Taken Big Hit