Oilers' Playoff Odds Have Taken Big Hit
A 2-4 start has knocked the Oilers off their projected President's Trophy pace.
Perry Nelson-Imagn Images - Oilers' Playoff Odds Have Taken Big HitIt gets late early in the NHL.
There is, of course, the old Elliotte Friedman maxim: if you're a few points out of a playoff spot on November 1st, you're much less likely to make the playoffs. You can't win the Stanley Cup in October, but you can lose it.
One valuable illustration of the importance of a hot start is playoff odds. We know that the Oilers haven't done themselves any favours with their 2-4 start. Projection systems like those used by MoneyPuck and The Athletic can quantify just how much ground they've lost.
The Oilers entered the season as significant Stanley Cup favourites according to both models: a 12% chance according to MoneyPuck, and a 21% chance according to The Athletic.
This of course meant both outlets had the Oilers as a mortal lock for the postseason: 93.9% at MoneyPuck and 99% at The Athletic, both the highest of any team in each respective model. MoneyPuck projected the Oilers for 108.6 points, while The Athletic projected them for 111, both of them worthy of the President's Trophy.
Things have changed after two weeks of games. Their projected points totals have fallen: now 103 at MoneyPuck and 105 at The Athletic. Their playoff odds have fallen as well: 86.4% at MoneyPuck and 95% at The Athletic. That's not anything to panic about yet, but it's certainly worrying, and a reminder that these games count just as much as the ones in April.
That being said, Oilers fans can take solace in one thing: both models still count the Oilers as Stanley Cup favourites. MoneyPuck gives them an 11.2% chance at the Cup, while The Athletic still loves them enough to give them an 18% chance, 7 percent clear of the runner-up Dallas Stars.
They may have failed their first test against the Stars on Saturday, but they get another shot on Tuesday: a matchup with both models' Eastern Conference favourites, the Carolina Hurricanes.
*All stats current through October 19th's games
Bookmark The Hockey News Edmonton Oilers team site to never miss news, interviews, or any other updates on the Oilers.