Connor McDavid’s next contract with the Edmonton Oilers isn’t signed yet, but all signs point to it getting done before the end here in the next couple of weeks.
Reports, like the one from the 2 Mutts Podcast, suggest the two sides will sit down soon. They write, " With Connor McDavid just getting back home in Canada after spending sometime overseas over the last several weeks the expectation is to start grinding away on a contract extension with the Oilers. Meanwhile, Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal reports, "I believe right now that McDavid will sign before the regular season begins. Maybe even before training camp. There is no way on earth that a guy who hates talking about himself in public will want to trudge through the season with that question hanging out there night after night. Not chance. Not even a little one."
At this point, anything being reported is speculation. However, the consensus prediction seems to be a four-year extension worth around $16.5 million per season.
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A Discount in the Short Term
On the surface, if these estimates are accurate, it looks like a team-friendly deal that buys Edmonton some flexibility under the salary cap. That's the good news.
For McDavid, now 28 and entering what most consider the prime years of his career, a $16.5 million AAV represents a sizable discount. It's far less than what the NHL allows, which is as much as 20 percent of the cap for any single player. For McDavid, that would be just over $19 million per season.
At $16.5 million, it's a $2.5 million per season savings per season. The Oilers can use that money to add to their roster.
To hear McDavid might be considering this won't really shock anyone. He has already taken a discount and taken slightly less than he was worth to allow the team to build around him. This new deal, in theory, fits that mold. The Oilers get to keep their best player without committing cap suicide, and McDavid gets another chance at a Stanley Cup run while he’s still at the height of his production.
The Hidden Catch in the Deal
But if you look beyond the short-term positive headlines, the long-term picture might not be as rosy as it appears.
The problem solved in the short term becomes a potentially bigger issue in the long term. What happens after this four-year pact ends?
By the summer of 2029, McDavid will be 33 years old. That’s still plenty young to be effective, but most statistical models suggest his peak will be behind him. If McDavid chooses to cash in then -- having either won a Stanley Cup or not -- he could be looking at 20 percent of a salary cap projected to rise to $120 million, maybe more. That would put his annual ask at around $24 million—a staggering number for a player likely no longer producing 120-130 point seasons.
The Oilers, meanwhile, would be caught between loyalty to their captain and the cold realities of cap management.
In other words, Edmonton may be saving money today only to face a crippling financial and emotional decision tomorrow.
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Some critics argue that the Oilers should be pushing hard for a longer deal now, even if it means paying closer to the $19 million maximum. Locking McDavid in through his mid-30s at a fixed rate could actually protect the team from the ballooning cap environment.
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The average annual salary works out roughly the same. Say McDavid takes $19 million for eight years this week. That's $152 million. If he takes $16.5 million by four years now, and $24 million by four years later ($162 million), that's an average of $20.25 million over all eight seasons. The cap hit, while an extra $1.25 million stretched out is not the problem. The problem becomes paying far more for McDavid when he's not as likely to provide the same kind of value.
This is the trade-off with long-term deals. The back half is not as wonderful as the front half. And, frankly, if the Oilers win a Cup or two in the next four years, no one will care.
If they don't, it may be hard to convince management or the fan base to commit that kind of scratch to a player that can't take his team all the way. It's asking all parties, including the paying public, to be good with a monster deal knowing that the odds of it paying off are lower.
The emotional pull to keep McDavid in Edmonton his entire career is what makes this such a tough decision. Teams often overpay stars in the twilight of their careers, valuing loyalty over results. McDavid’s case could be the most extreme example the NHL has ever seen.
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The idea that he would sign a four-year deal at a discount price, then ask to be compensated later seems fair. It's the rest of the baggage that comes with what should be an easy decision that makes it not so easy.
Ultimately, the two sides will find an extension that both parties publicly say they're comfortable with. Once that happens, the focus will shift to trying to win a Stanley Cup, and then another, and another in the time McDavid gives Edmonton.
Eventually, the conversation will shift. When it does, let's hope everyone is ready for the potentiall fallout.
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