A historic revenue surge is reshaping the NHL salary cap, and Edmonton will be caught right in the middle as Connor McDavid’s strategic short-term contract sets him up for an unprecedented payday.
The NHL's financial trajectory just took another leap. As Elliotte Friedman reports, at this week's Board of Governors meeting, the league gave its first formal estimate for the 2028-29 salary cap upper limit: $127.5 million, a 22.6% jump from today's $104 million ceiling. That would be a $14 million increase from the 2027-28 season, roughly 12 percent—the largest year-over-year cap jump in NHL history.
Things are moving quickly. The cap recently sat at $88 million. It's $104 million this year and projected to hit $113.5 million in 2027-28, before this newly floated $127.5 million figure for 2028-29.
What does that mean for some of the league's top players? More specifically, what does it mean for the Edmonton Oilers and Connor McDavid?
Commissioner Gary Bettman projects the league will pull in around $8.1 billion in revenue for the 2026-27 season, which is driving all of this. On the surface, it's great for the NHL. For a team like the Oilers, their captain—who has gone on record saying it's about time the NHL caught up to some of the other big sports leagues—is going to get pricey.
Did McDavid See All Of This Coming?
Back in October 2025, after a summer of will-he-won't-he speculation, McDavid signed a two-year extension worth $25 million, covering the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons. It was seen as one of the more genrous extensions in hockey because his $12.5 million cap hit matched his previous deal — no raise at all, despite being the best player in the world and despite Kirill Kaprizov having just set a new market rate with an eight-year, $136 million deal in Minnesota.
Few people realized until this offseason that McDavid was playing chess while others were playing checkers.
That two-year term wasn't an accident. It expires right as the cap is expected to explode to $127.5 million. In other words, McDavid bet on himself and on Edmonton's Cup window rather than cashing in immediately — and now he's set up to hit unrestricted free agency (or sign his next extension) in the single biggest cap environment the league has ever seen.
Not only did he give the Oilers some time to compete, but he set it up so that he could cash in again, making back far more than he left on the table.
So What Do The Oilers Do?
The good news is they don't have to worry about this right now. Their focus, as is McDavid's, is on winning the Stanley Cup. They've put all their eggs in the Mike Babcock basket, and McDavid played a big role in that decision. No. 97 is invested. As such, there's no worry he's looking to bolt.
Meanwhile, Edmonton gets short-term cap relief exactly when it needs it. With McDavid at $12.5 million against a rising cap for the next two seasons, the Oilers gain more breathing room each year to support him and Leon Draisaitl ($14 million AAV) with a supporting cast. They'll need the help, and it puts them ahead of teams like Anaheim and San Jose, who are spending wild amounts of money right now.
After the 2027-28 season, things get really intriguing. With the cap rising, McDavid has no reason to sign an early extension. In fact, it would hurt him financially to do so. Instead, he'll wait until he can maximize his earnings and potentially take the highest possible percentage of the cap. That doesn't mean McDavid will max out, but it means he could, and his next contract could be enormous.
If he signs his next deal once the $127.5 million ceiling is in effect, the raw dollar figures could dwarf recent record-setters — Kaprizov's $17 million AAV, Leo Carlsson at $18 million, Macklin Celebrini at $18.8 million, or even Cale Makar's new $20.4 million AAV extension with Colorado. A much bigger cap can support a much bigger number.
The Oilers will have to decide if they're willing to give him that number. Much of that will decide on how they perform over the next two years. No Cup? A trade might be on the table. Win the Cup? That changes things.
And, of course, if there's any chance McDavid isn't willing to give Edmonton more than the two years he gave them on his last deal, the organization has to consider what they can get in return in the NHL's biggest blockbuster trade since Wayne Gretzky. Most teams will happily flop $25 million on the table, and the Oilers can't afford to lose him for nothing.
It's a problem for another day, but Friedman's report and the salary cap projections mean teams are already taking a deep breath. No doubt, Edmonton is among them, even if they sort of knew this was coming.
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