After putting together the best season in the cap era, will the Bruins be able to repeat despite having only one marquee fantasy player in David Pastrnak?
Outlook
Last season:
65-12-5, 1st Atlantic, 1st overall. Eliminated in Round 1 by Florida, 4-3.
3.67 GF/GP (2nd), 2.12 GA/GP (1st), 22.2 PP% (12th), 87.3 PK% (1st)
51.59 5v5 CF% (15th), 63.58 5v5 GF% (1st), 53.15 5v5 xGF% (8th)
Yikes. This doesn’t even look like a playoff-caliber roster.
There was nothing the Bruins could do to replace Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. But the holes throughout the lineup are compounded by their decision to not re-sign players they had traded for in the hopes of a long playoff run, including Tyler Bertuzzi, Garnet Hathaway and Dmitry Orlov, and then later trading Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno to the Blackhawks.
The Bruins lineup is so thin that even projecting their second power play unit was difficult, and it’s painful to think they will be depending on the likes of Trent Frederic on offense, and lumbering left wingers Milan Lucic and James van Riemsdyk to provide solid minutes. They have close to zero centers, and their projected No. 1 pivot, Pavel Zacha, has played more left wing than center in the pros.
The one true gem remains David Pastrnak, who’s ranked fifth in the fantasy rankings and slated to contend for the Rocket Richard and score over 100 points. I feel that’s optimistic without a playmaking center setting him up, and opposing defenses can key in on Pastrnak without having to worry about the rest. It shouldn’t be surprising to see Pastrnak’s numbers dip a little, but from a fantasy standpoint, he remains a top-tier goal scorer and 400-shot potential puts him well ahead of everyone else.
Brad Marchand is the only other forward ranked in the top 100 at No. 79. That feels generous since Bergeron will not be by his side for the first time in his career, and the general wear and tear of his playing style has certainly forced him to miss time over the past few seasons.
Then it’s Zacha, Charlie Coyle and Jake DeBrusk, and even at their best, they’re capped at around 60 points. The Fantasy Guide is projected no one other than Pastrnak to finish above 61 points, and Charlie McAvoy – still the PP1 QB even though he doesn’t possess the prototypical skillset – as their third-leading scorer.
All this to say that the Bruins are a one-man island in fantasy. There’s almost no room for improvement but a very high chance of a regression (see goalies below) after putting together the best season ever in the cap era.
Projected Lineup
Brad Marchand – Pavel Zacha – David Pastrnak
Trent Frederic – Charlie Coyle – Jake DeBrusk
James van Riemsdyk – Morgan Geekie – Jesper Boqvist
Milan Lucic – Patrick Brown – Oskar Steen
Matt Grzelcyk – Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm – Brandon Carlo
Derek Forbort – Kevin Shattenkirk
Linus Ullmark – Jeremy Swayman
PP1
Marchand – Zacha – Pastrnak – DeBrusk – McAvoy
PP2
van Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic – Lindholm – Shattenkirk
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
David Pastrnak, 105 points
Brad Marchand, 61 points
Charlie McAvoy, 54 points
(Point projections for all players are available in The Hockey News NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Get the Fantasy Guide for FREE when you subscribe today.)
Top 300 Ranked Bruins (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
5. David Pastrnak, RW
79. Brad Marchand, LW
89. Linus Ullmark, G
150. Pavel Zacha, C
157. Charlie McAvoy, D
159. Jeremy Swayman, G
181. Jake DeBrusk, LW
225. Charlie Coyle, C
287. Hampus Lindholm, D
Top 300 Ranked Bruins (Banger League) (Full List):
4. David Pastrnak, RW
61. Brad Marchand, LW
93. Charlie McAvoy, D
140. Linus Ullmark, G
155. Pavel Zacha, C
192. Jake DeBrusk, LW
217. Charlie Coyle, C
242. Hampus Lindholm, D
256. Jeremy Swayman, G
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
Um… how about none of them? If there was a player who had the potential to break out, it’s likely Trent Frederic, who now has a chance to grab a top-six role after scoring 17 goals in 79 games last season despite basically playing fourth-line minutes (11:55 TOI/GP). His ice time will surely increase this season, and if he can reach the 20-goal milestone, combined with his 100-plus hits, he could have some value in banger leagues. However, the 25-year-old former first-round pick has a very low offensive ceiling, and in all likelihood tops out as a very good role player and not a fantasy-relevant asset.
Regression Candidate
It has to be Pavel Zacha, who has never profiled as a scorer. He would be hard-pressed to score 21 goals and 57 points again barring a significant change to his playing style. He barely shoots the puck and he doesn’t offer much in peripherals, so it’s hard to fathom exactly how he’ll generate his points other than passing the puck to Pastrnak a lot. It just doesn’t seem like a very sustainable way of scoring points, and you’re drafting Zacha based entirely on the premise that he’ll be the Bruins’ top center.
Goalies
This is where the real regression begins. Both Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman were fantastic, combining to lose just 12 (!) games in regulation en route to winning the Vezina for Ullmark and the Jennings as a tandem. Ullmark’s numbers were truly extraordinary, putting up the best numbers in the cap era by any goalie (min. 40 GP) since Tim Thomas in their 2010-11 Cup-winning season.
But without the league’s best two-way forward and lacking in quality depth, how can Ullmark and Swayman repeat their historic performances? From a fantasy standpoint, it’s either going to be another 1A-1B situation or another 50-50 timeshare, diminishing their fantasy value compared to workhorse goalies who will start somewhere between 50 to 60 games.
The Bruins’ advanced possession metrics weren’t all that great last season, either. If you believe PDO always reverts closer to 1.000 in the long run, consider that the Bruins had the second-best shooting percentage behind the Kraken (also due for a regression) and the best save percentage to finish at 1.036, per naturalstattrick.com. Meanwhile, the top teams over the past decade usually finished around 1.025.
I’m still skeptical of their ability to win games, and it’s still the safer bet to roster both goalies. Swayman has had excellent numbers throughout his career, and it still wouldn’t be surprising to see him take over as the starter at some point during the season.
