So many options... but are any of them good? Beyond Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat, the Red Wings offer a mishmash of fantasy options as they figure out the next stage of the Yzerplan.
Outlook
Last season:
35-37-10, 7th Atlantic, 24th overall.
2.89 GF/GP (24th), 3.35 GA/GP (22nd), 21.1 PP% (17th), 78.3 PK% (18th)
46.03 5v5 CF% (26th), 44.38 5v5 GF% (28th), 46.09 5v5 xGF% (26th)
We enter the fifth year of the Yzerplan with a more talented roster, but are the Red Wings really getting any better? They have not qualified for the playoffs in seven straight seasons, and they’ve won somewhere between 30 to 35 games in five of those seasons.
It was rather odd to see the Wings sell at the deadline, only to turn around and trade for Alex DeBrincat and splurge in free agency on J.T. Compher, Christian Fischer, Daniel Sprong, Justin Holl and Shayne Gostisbehere. It’s true that players such as DeBrincat aren’t available often, but some of the moves reeked of desperation or being overly sentimental to players with ties to Michigan (the school and state).
Dylan Larkin is at the top of that list, though he’s turned into a very fine fantasy player scoring at a point-per-game pace with good shot volume and excellent power-play production last season. He’s never had an elite winger like DeBrincat to play with, and you hope that they can form a bond that pushes DeBrincat back into 40-goal territory and Larkin beyond a point-per-game pace. They are the only two Wings ranked in the top 50 in the fantasy rankings.
It would help if Lucas Raymond can take the next step, who regressed last season no thanks to a curiously low shooting pace. We hope that Robby Fabbri, who can score at a 50-point pace, can stay healthy. We hope Andrew Copp isn’t snakebit and finishes with 15 to 20 goals, as opposed to just nine. We hope Compher and Fischer can produce more like second-line players than third-line players, and that Sprong was not just another flash in the pan.
But that’s kind of the story with the Wings in fantasy – a bunch of hopefuls and what-ifs. It’s the hallmark of a young team, but given the veterans the Wings just added, it’s also pushing out some of the younger players with more upside.
There is some logic to this; the Wings can be more competitive right now with their new additions, while young players such as Jonatan Berggren, Elmer Soderblom and Simon Edvinsson – pushed out of the projected lineup below – can be shuffled to the minors without any fear of getting poached by another team since they’re all exempt from waivers.
But the Wings are still an unreliable bunch with so many new faces, which is why outside of Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond and the ever-dependable David Perron, everyone else ranks well outside the top 200. Draft at your own peril because there are just too many question marks, from playing time on a crowded roster to individual production.
Even the defense is a little difficult to figure out. Seider, Gostisbehere and possibly Jeff Petry are vying for power play minutes, and Edvinson and Olli Maatta are currently on the outside looking in even though both players can make positive contributions.
Projected Lineup
Alex DeBrincat – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond
Robby Fabbri – Andrew Copp – David Perron
Michael Rasmussen – J.T. Compher – Christian Fischer
Klim Kostin – Joe Veleno – Daniel Sprong
Moritz Seider – Jake Walman
Shayne Gostisbehere – Jeff Petry
Ben Chiarot – Justin Holl
Ville Husso – James Reimer
PP1
DeBrincat – Larkin – Raymond – Perron – Seider
PP2
Fabbri – Compher – Copp – Sprong – Gostisbehere
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Dylan Larkin, 86 points
Alex DeBrincat, 68 points
Lucas Raymond, 67 points
(Point projections for all players are available in The Hockey News NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Get the Fantasy Guide for FREE when you subscribe today.)
Top 300 Ranked Red Wings (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
38. Dylan Larkin, C
42. Alex DeBrincat, RW
136. Lucas Raymond, LW
167. David Perron, LW
184. Moritz Seider, D
191. Ville Husso, G
243. Andrew Copp, C
256. Shayne Gostisbehere, D
267. J.T. Compher, C
Top 300 Ranked Red Wings (Banger League) (Full List):
30. Alex DeBrincat, RW
35. Dylan Larkin, C
65. Moritz Seider, D
152. David Perron, LW
164. Lucas Raymond, LW
235. Jeff Petry, D
252. Shayne Gostisbehere, D
279. Andrew Copp, C
280. J.T. Compher, C
285. Ville Husso, G
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
It’s hard to pick one with so many players and moving parts to the roster. But if Lucas Raymond stays with Larkin and DeBrincat plays on the opposite wing, Raymond’s being set up for a potential 30-goal season. However, Larkin and DeBrincat take a lot of shots, and you wonder if there’s enough for Raymond. Maybe it doesn’t matter because Raymond will rack up the assists instead, and he certainly has been particularly effective on the power play with 27 assists over the past two seasons. Breakout campaigns depend heavily on a player’s minutes and usage, and no other prospect is assured of top-six minutes.
Regression Candidate
I just don’t see Daniel Sprong as a reliable scorer. His 26-goal pace was really surprising and his Individual Point Percentage skewed very high for the second straight season. IPP is the percentage of goals for that player's team while that player is on the ice that the player earned a point on, with the league average hovering around 70 percent. Sprong was at 80 percent, according to naturalstattrick.com, which hinted he was among the league’s elite in driving play and generating offense, and he is obviously not that kind of player.
It’s not unheard of for a player to move around a little bit before figuring it out – former Kraken teammate Jared McCann also suddenly scored at a much higher pace last season – but it always raises a few eyebrows when it happens out of the blue.
Sprong has averaged just 12 minutes per game in his career, by the way, and he faces a lot of competition for a top-six role. This was a low-risk signing by the Wings on a one-year deal, but it just begs the question of what exactly is the Yzerplan in its current iteration because it all feels like a shotgun approach. As far as high-upside options go, there are surer bets than Sprong.
Goalies
Ville Husso is the starter but he’s a scary pick. The early-season returns were great: 12-6-5 through the first three months, and his record could’ve been even better had their defense been better. But it was pretty much a disaster from there, and Husso finished the season with a .896 SP and 3.11 GAA, ranked 11th in both categories out of 13 goalies with at least 50 starts.
Husso is lucky he even got to start over 50 games since he had no competition in the crease with Alex Nedeljkovic’s .895 SP and Magnus Hellberg’s .885 SP. I fail to see how James Reimer will push Husso, considering his .890 SP was just as poor, and he’s proven through 476 career games that he’s never been starting material.
Husso is the 26th-ranked goalie in the fantasy rankings, just behind Phillip Grubauer, who might actually be the worst starter in the league, and ahead of Adin Hill, who might have the shakiest hold on a starting job in the league. The range of outcomes for Husso is vast, and that’s only good if you’re really gambling on upside at the most volatile position in fantasy hockey.
