It's baby steps toward the future for the Habs... leaving few options in fantasy for 2023-24.

Updated 9/20/23 to include the trade for Tanner Pearson.

Outlook

Last season:
31-45-6, 8th Atlantic, 28th overall.
2.77 GF/GP (26th), 3.72 GA/GP (29th), 16.1 PP% (29th), 72.7 PK% (29th)
45.51 5v5 CF% (28th), 44.75 5v5 GF% (27th), 43.59 5v5 xGF% (30th)

As they say, the night is darkest just before the dawn. There’s some light and hope on the horizon, but the Habs are a long way from the top. They’re still in the process of figuring out who’s part of the core and, for the second straight season, identified a young player in need of a change of scenery in Alex Newhook, following the acquisition of Kirby Dach last season. These are positive moves, but not the big splash that can jumpstart a franchise.

This is still Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield’s team, but they’re in desperate need of help. It’s very much a roster still in the midst of a re-build, with a few legacy contracts – among them, Josh Anderson and Brendan Gallagher – and a big group of young players still making their way up the depth chart, from 19-year-old Juraj Slafkovsky to 24-year-old Rafaël Harvey-Pinard.

It’s unlikely the Habs will improve much from last season. The fantasy rankings reflect as much; Caufield and Suzuki are the only players ranked within the top 100, and neither of them will surpass 65 points, according to The Hockey News Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Sure, there’s some room for surprise with Dach, Alex Newhook and Sean Monahan, or even Slafkovksy, Harvey-Pinard and Jesse Ylönen. But these are spray-and-pray fantasy options, the type of low-risk, mid-ceiling players you draft late in the hopes of finding a surprise gem or satisfying your Habs fandom. The Habs have much more value in dynasty leagues, with Caufield and Suzuki ranked in the top 35 and Newhook and Dach ranked 106th and 119th, respectively, though it excludes Slafkovsky, who needs to show a lot more offense to make the list.

Asides from Mike Matheson, who might end up as their top fantasy player thanks to massive amounts of ice time, especially on the power play, their defense is also filled with mid-ceiling options. Arber Xhekaj has value in banger leagues, but even their best value options are mid-ceiling types: Kaiden Guhle, a smooth-skating defenseman without an elite offensive skill; and Justin Barron, who possesses the most offensive upside but played in 39 games last season and is not included in the projected lineup.

The best-case scenario for the Habs would be for them to significantly improve under Martin St-Louis’ continued tutelage. Caufield was noticeably better and Suzuki scored 66 points without much support. From a fantasy perspective, however, the ceiling just isn’t high enough to warrant taking any Habs in the early rounds.

Projected Lineup

Cole Caufield – Nick Suzuki – Kirby Dach
Alex Newhook – Sean Monahan – Josh Anderson
Tanner Pearson – Christian Dvorak – Brendan Gallagher
Juraj Slafkovsky – Jake Evans – Joel Armia

Mike Matheson – Johnathan Kovacevic
Kaiden Guhle – David Savard
Arber Xhekaj – Jordan Harris

Jake Allen – Samuel Montembeault

PP1
Caufield – Suzuki – Dach – Monahan – Matheson
PP2
Newhook – Dvorak – Gallagher – Anderson – Guhle

Player Rankings

The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Nick Suzuki, 65 points
Cole Caufield, 63 points
Kirby Dach, 50 points

(The NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 is free if you subscribe today! Click the image below and click 'Add to Cart')

Top 300 Ranked Canadiens (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
92. Cole Caufield, RW
97. Nick Suzuki, C
232. Kirby Dach, C
247. Alex Newhook, C
252. Mike Matheson, D
286. Jake Allen, G

Top 300 Ranked Canadiens (Banger League) (Full List):
88. Nick Suzuki, C
120. Cole Caufield, RW
230. Mike Matheson, D
239. Kirby Dach, C
261. Josh Anderson, RW
268. Arber Xhekaj, D
289. Alex Newhook, C

All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.

Breakout Star

You hope it’s Juraj Slafkovsky, but unless he shows more offensive flair, it’s unlikely he’ll get top-six minutes. Don’t rule out an assignment to AHL Laval, where he should get plenty of minutes and time to develop. Instead, look to Alex Newhook, who was not developing as quickly as the Avs would’ve liked and buried on the depth chart. In a top-six role, Newhook should set career highs across the board. His upside is immense, which is why he’s the fourth and last forward among the Habs to be ranked, though the talent surrounding him isn’t elite, putting his ceiling at 50-something points.

Kirby Dach is the other option, ranked after Caufield and Suzuki but well below them at 232nd. The Blackhawks castaway showed considerable promise in his rookie season with 23 points in 64 games, but his development has since stalled. He’s a playmaker, which means he won’t provide goals or shots in fantasy, but scoring at a 50-point pace gives him some fantasy value in deeper leagues. His shooting percentage spiked to 13.1 percent last season, but that’s closer to what his efficiency should be; his sub-8.0 shooting percentage through his first three seasons is akin to a fourth-line, replacement-level player, and Dach is undoubtedly more talented than that.

Regression Candidate

It’s easy to look at Rafaël Harvey-Pinard’s 48-point pace, his excellent production at the AHL level and his pedigree of winning – he captained Rouyn-Noranda to the QMJHL league title and a Memorial Cup win – and get sucked into the narrative that he’s an overlooked player worth drafting in the late rounds.

Not so fast, if you consider his otherworldly shooting percentage at 24.1 percent – he’s no Andrei Kuzmenko – and the 17 minutes per game he’s unlikely to get this coming season. The Habs were decimated by various injuries and roster movements, which allowed Harvey-Pinard to get more ice time than he would’ve otherwise received. Harvey-Pinard also spent most of the season playing next to Suzuki, who will likely be flanked by Caufield and one of either Dach or Josh Anderson.

EDIT: Harvey-Pinard was removed from the projected lineup following the trade for Tanner Pearson. 

Goalies

Even if Samuel Montembeault takes over the starting job, both him and Jake Allen are goalies you leave on the waiver wire unless desperate times calls for desperate measures. Montembeault has the higher ceiling – he’s seven years younger and outperformed Allen last season – but Allen’s the incumbent and it’s shaping up to be another timeshare.

Keep in mind they acquired Casey DeSmith from the Penguins to facilitate the Erik Karlsson trade, and he’ll either factor into the rotation, which hurts both Montembeault and Allen’s fantasy values, or get re-assigned to the minors. At some point, the Habs will have to address their logjam in the crease – Cayden Primeau included – and if one of them is moved to a (presumably) better team, that’s when they might carry a little more fantasy value.