The Penguins will be an offensive force one again, offering a plethora of options in fantasy.

Outlook

Last season:
40-31-11, 5th Metro, 19th overall.
3.18 GF/GP (16th), 3.21 GA/GP (19th), 21.7 PP% (14th), 79.1 PK% (16th)
52.14 5v5 CF% (9th), 49.41 5v5 GF% (18th), 53.78 5v5 xGF% (4th)

What a shame it was to have both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin play all 82 games only to miss the playoffs. Of course, one can’t complain too much when the Crosby era has already delivered three championship banners, but everyone wants to go out a hero, and what a story it would be if the Pens’ current core could close their chapter with an exclamation point. Minus a few blips, few players can claim to have such a fairy-tale career as Crosby, fulfilling expectations of greatness and scoring one of the biggest goals in Canadian hockey history.

The Pens, of course, are going for it now even if their chances are slim. Though critics will argue that acquiring Erik Karlsson was adding to a strength – offense – and willfully ignoring their long-standing weakness – quality depth – playing offense has always been a part of the Pens’ DNA. 

That’s great for fantasy because it means the Pens are going to score a lot of goals. It’s their surest path to victory, though I’m sure they won’t completely abandon the defensive side of the game. Crosby, Malkin and Karlsson are elite fantasy options, point-per-game players who have defied average aging curves and remain incredibly effective players well into their 30’s. All three players rank in the top 50 in the fantasy rankings.

This is an aging veteran roster, but by no means are any of them washed (except maybe Jeff Carter). Reilly Smith, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust are all capable of scoring at least 25 goals, and Jake Guentzel is still very much in his prime. Guentzel, in fact, may be one of the most underrated players, scoring 159 goals over the past five seasons, tied for 14th in the league and fourth among left wingers behind Alex Ovechkin, Kyle Connor and Chris Kreider. All four wingers rank between 113th and 186th in the fantasy rankings, with room to exceed expectations.

The only player whose fantasy value has really taken a hit is Kris Letang. His production has dipped, but that’s expected for a 36-year-old with a ton of mileage and health issues. Letang’s minutes will surely get cut back, but less is more at this stage of his career. The void Letang creates is expected to be filled – and perhaps more – by Karlsson, who remains a top-tier fantasy defenseman even factoring in a likely regression.

Projected Lineup

Jake Guentzel – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Reilly Smith – Evgeni Malkin – Rickard Rakell
Matt Nieto – Lars Eller – Noel Acciari
Drew O’Connor – Jeff Carter – Alex Nylander

Ryan Graves – Erik Karlsson
Marcus Petttersson – Kris Letang
Pierre-Olivier Joseph – Chad Ruhwedel

Tristan Jarry – Alex Nedeljkovic

PP1
Guentzel – Crosby – Rakell – Malkin – Karlsson
PP2
Smith – Carter – Rust – Acciari – Letang

Player Rankings

The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Sidney Crosby, 86 points
Evgeni Malkin, 81 points
Jake Guentzel, 78 points

(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)

Top 300 Ranked Penguins (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
23. Sidney Crosby, C
46. Evgeni Malkin, C
48. Erik Karlsson, D
76. Tristan Jarry, G
113. Jake Guentzel, LW
118. Rickard Rakell, RW
166. Bryan Rust, RW
186. Reilly Smith, LW
291. Kris Letang, D

Top 300 Ranked Penguins (Banger League) (Full List):
19. Sidney Crosby, C
46. Evgeni Malkin, C
48. Erik Karlsson, D
107. Rickard Rakell, RW
117. Jake Guentzel, LW
123. Tristan Jarry, G
153. Bryan Rust, RW
171. Kris Letang, D
210. Reilly Smith, LW

All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.

Breakout Star

We know what to expect from the Pens and it’s unlikely they offer any real surprises. Ryan Graves, however, is an intriguing banger league asset, who just missed the cut-off in the rankings. He’s averaged around two blocks and a hit per game since entering the league, but has never scored more than 26 points in a season.

Could playing with Karlsson raise that ceiling? Last season, Karlson’s most common defensive partner was Jaycob Megna – over 650 minutes together at 5-on-5 – and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Megna scored at the highest rate of his career, finishing with 12 points in 48 games. In deep banger leagues, Graves is worth the late-round pick just for the multiple-category coverage. If his scoring doesn’t spike, it’s not a big deal to drop him, but if it does, he’s a potential late-round gem. When Graves had his best season in 2019-20 with the Avs, scoring 26 points and led the league with a plus-40 rating in 69 games, guess who his defensive partner was? Why, yes, it was Cale Makar indeed.

Regression Candidate

Picking Karlsson is low-hanging fruit. It’s highly unlikely he scores 100 points, but not completely out of the realm of possibility. A combination of a lower shooting percentage and slightly fewer minutes will ensure that, and with enough quality forwards, the responsibility to generate offense won’t fall entirely on Karlsson’s shoulders. Nonetheless, he remains a top-5 fantasy defenseman.

It’s related, but Kris Letang’s fantasy value is likely to drop by a more significant amount. His minutes and role will be cut back as Karlsson occupies the same right-side defense, and quite frankly, the Pens should keep Letang fresh for the playoffs. I’m expecting a dip in Letang’s numbers across the board, marking the end of Letang’s decade-long status as one of the premier fantasy defensemen.

Goalies

I currently have Tristan Jarry ranked as a borderline top-10 goalie, and that’s not a hot take. When healthy, Jarry has shown he has the chops. Even with an unimpressive .909 SP, he won 24 of his 47 starts and by naturalstatrick.com’s goals saved above average per 60 minutes model, ranked 22nd out of 55 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes played at 5-on-5. I think his lower-body injury bugged him all season and likely wasn’t 100 percent healthy during the final stretch that saw him allow nine goals against the Devils and Bruins.

Perhaps for lack of a better option, the Pens felt similarly, and inked Jarry to a five-year extension. That financial commitment alone ensures Jarry will be a workhorse with at least 50 to 60 starts, depending on how reliable Alex Nedeljkovic can be. The goalies ranked ahead of Jarry in the fantasy rankings are expected to either have bigger workloads or play on better teams, putting Jarry at the lower spectrum of reliable starters, and certainly more valuable than a good goalie on a poor team (John Gibson) or one locked in a timeshare (Filip Gustavsson).

Health is the big question mark, but the same could be same about the entire Pens roster. Given how volatile goalies can be in fantasy, reaching for someone who has a good chance of being a dependable workhorse is an erstwhile gamble.