The Sharks are going belly-up... are they a carcass or are there some viable fantasy options?
Outlook
Last season:
22-44-16, 7th Pacific, 29th overall.
2.84 GF/GP (25th), 3.84 GA/GP (30th), 18.4 PP% (25th), 82.4 PK% (8th)
48.60 5v5 CF% (21st), 43.30 5v5 GF% (29th), 50.50 5v5 xGF% (17th)
If there was one team that I would completely avoid in fantasy hockey, it’s the Sharks. Asides from Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture, this is a hodgepodge of outcasts and role players whose purpose is to a) rebuild their own value so they can continue their careers elsewhere or b) provide a stopgap solution until the Sharks figure out a clearer long-term plan.
There’s just no upside, and even the most optimistic and ardent supporters of William Eklund and Thomas Bordeleau, two of the Sharks’ top prospects who are expected to play significant roles this season, must admit that the supporting cast just isn’t particularly good. Any of the eight wingers in the projected lineup below could play on the first line or fourth lines, depending on the situation and their recent form. It’s so crowded that Eklund and Bordeleau could begin the season in the AHL, and perhaps it's best to keep them away from a team that’s going to lose a lot of games.
Does Mike Hoffman play top-six minutes all season? Doubtful, and a healthy scratch here and there wouldn’t be surprising. Is Mikael Granlund better on a scoring line or a checking line? We don’t even know what he really has to offer anymore. Can Anthony Duclair or Filip Zadina provide enough scoring, and are they better fits than Alexander Barabanov with Logan Couture? Tough to say. Do Luke Kunin or Fabian Zetterlund still have latent offense that can be developed and nurtured? Maybe just the teensiest bit. Who will be their fourth center? (Shrugs).
The defense is further weighed down by the massive anchor that is Marc-Édouard Vlasic, who costs too much for what he brings to the table, yet the Sharks are so thin that they also can’t really afford to scratch him. It’s been like this for years now, and there’s still no immediate solution.
Keep in mind there’s a chance their only under-23 players – Eklund, Bordeleau and Zadina – may not even be part of their opening lineup. Until Will Smith, the fourth overall pick in 2023, joins the Sharks, they’re highly unlikely to be competitive.
This team is a barren wasteland from a fantasy standpoint. Couture has remained surprisingly consistent and it’s a small wonder he scored 67 points last season, but he’s the type of player you begrudgingly take in the late rounds, or pick off the waiver wire when you realize he’s not bad enough to go undrafted. Hertl has more upside and his reputation precedes him, but 30 goals always seems like a tall order and he’s never been a high-volume shooter. Couture, Hertl and Eklund are the only three Sharks who are ranked in both the top 300 rankings and top 300 banger league rankings, and Eklund is ranked only due to a generous rookie projection that assumes he plays top-six minutes regularly.
Projected Lineup
Mike Hoffman – Tomas Hertl – Kevin Labanc
Anthony Duclair – Logan Couture – Alexander Barabanov
Oskar Lindblom – Nico Sturm – Luke Kunin
Filip Zadina – Mikael Granlund – Fabian Zetterlund
Mario Ferraro – Matt Benning
Marc-Édouard Vlasic – Jan Rutta
Radim Simek – Kyle Burroughs
Mackenzie Blackwood – Kaapo Kahkonen
PP1
Couture – Hertl – Barbanov – Eklund – Benning
PP2
Hoffman – Granlund – Kunin – Duclair – Ferraro
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Logan Couture, 60 points
Tomas Hertl, 58 points
Alexander Barabanov, 51 points
(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)
Top 300 Ranked Sharks (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
96. Tomas Hertl, C
123. Logan Couture, C
185. William Eklund, C
257. Anthony Duclair, LW
263. Mackenzie Blackwood, G
282. Alexander Barabanov, LW
Top 300 Ranked Sharks (Banger League) (Full List):
77. Tomas Hertl, C
109. Logan Couture, C
191. William Eklund, C
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
It has to be William Eklund by process of elimination. He’s their best NHL-ready prospect and possesses a skillset that warrants a top-six spot, meaning he’ll end up with either Couture or Hertl, the only two fantasy players of note on the Sharks. In eight games last season, Eklund averaged 19:50 and more than two shots per game, and also displayed some surprising banger-league attributes with six blocked shots and seven hits. The sample size is tiny but the upside is intriguing. We’ll have to see in training camp how the Sharks plan on using Eklund and what role he may play.
Regression Candidate
How do you regress when you’re closer to rock bottom than ever before? If anything, I expect all Sharks players to regress since they’re no longer sharing the ice with Erik Karlsson, and perhaps no one will be affected more than Alexander Barabanov. The 29-year-old right winger scored at a 56-point pace last season though he has almost zero name recognition, and Karlsson had a hand in 19 of Barbanov’s 47 points. Barabanov is getting top-six minutes he wouldn’t get on any other team, and to his credit, he’s meshed quite well with Couture, spending nearly 700 minutes together at 5-on-5 and posting a respectable 51.07 CF%, according to naturalstattrick.com.
Barbanov isn’t worth drafting unless you’re looking for 50 points late in the draft, and in almost all cases will be available on the waiver wire throughout the season. Hitting the 20-goal mark would be an accomplishment, and keep in mind there’s a lot more competition for ice time on the wings now.
Goalies
The Sharks are only one of two teams – the other being the Blackhawks – who are slated to begin the season with two goalies who both had sub-.900 save percentages last season. The goaltending situation is probably their most dire position, but if the goal is to get a high draft pick, then there’s no better tandem than Mackenzie Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen.
Kahkonen is the incumbent, appearing in 37 games for the Sharks, but he won just nine games last season and based on naturalstattrick.com’s goals saved above average model, ranked third-last out of 107 goalies.
Blackwood possesses far more upside; limited to just 22 games last season due to knee and groin injuries, he at least showed the potential to be a starter a few seasons ago, finishing sixth in Calder voting in 2020. He was, at one point, considered a goalie of the future for the Devils, and will now get a chance to get his career back on track.
We’re looking at a 50-50 timeshare unless one of them stands out, but the prospects just aren’t good when your top pairing is Mario Ferraro and Matt Benning. They’re only viable options if the Sharks are on a hot streak or if they’re playing the Ducks or Flyers, and even then, they’re bottom-of-the-depth options and the type of goalies you stream at your own peril.