Don't you, forget about me, as you walk on by... After a longer-than-usual summer, the Lightning return with their usual elite fantasy options.
Outlook
Last season:
46-30-6, 3rd Atlantic, 13th Overall. Eliminated Round 1 by Toronto, 4-2.
3.41 GF/GP (8th), 3.07 GA/GP (14th), 25.4 PP% (3rd), 79.7 PK% (15th)
51.45 5v5 CF% (13th), 51.93 5v5 GF% (13th), 52.04 5v5 xGF% (11th)
Perhaps we’re just not accustomed to seeing teams remain dominant for an extended period of time in the cap era, but there’s a sense that the Lightning are on the downside after two consecutive Cups and three straight Stanley Cup final appearances. Their bid last season came short, and though the series against the Leafs was close, it felt like they had some trouble flipping the switch.
Was it fatigue after the mental and physical strain of long playoff runs, one of which was amidst the pandemic? Was it the erosion of quality roster depth due to cap constraints? It was probably a little bit of everything. The Lightning are were eliminated by the younger Leafs last season, and there are even younger teams coming up in the Sabres and Devils.
Going into the 2023-24 season, the top end talent is still there and that should be enough to make another deep playoff run. Nikita Kucherov is still the best right winger in the league – sorry, David Pastrnak – a top-tier playmaker who trails only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in points per game over the past five seasons. When healthy, Brayden Point is a point-per-game, all-situations center, and captain Steven Stamkos keeps re-inventing himself and silencing doubters. All three are still excellent fantasy players.
The rest of the roster, however, doesn’t create excitement. It’s a mix of very good role players with both brawn and skill, but certainly more of the former than the latter. The total number of goals scored by Anthony Cirelli (11), Tanner Jeannot (6), Conor Sheary (15) and Nick Paul (17) is still two shy (49) of Point’s total (51). They’ll need to count on Mikhail Sergachev to put up another 60-point season and continued support from Victor Hedman to make up the difference. How the bottom of the roster generates offense will be interesting to see.
Note Stamkos, Point and Kucherov all rank within the top-50 in the fantasy player rankings, but only one other (Hagel) ranks inside the top-150 and two others (Paul, Sheary) rank outside the top-250. Cirelli ranks just outside top 300 and could move up, but offense isn’t really his game. There will be occasions where Cirelli, Paul, Sheary or even Michael Eyssimont run hot, but they’re not consistent enough to be rostered all season. Jeannot may be an exception in banger leagues for his hits, but he also needs to start scoring goals again.
Until proven otherwise, the Lightning demand respect in fantasy even if they’re getting older and the roster isn’t nearly as deep as it once was. Stick to the big names and you’ll be fine.
Projected Lineup
Steven Stamkos – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Tanner Jeannot
Conor Sheary – Nick Paul – Michael Eyssimont
Logan Brown – Luke Glendening – Josh Archibald
Victor Hedman – Erik Cernak
Mikhail Sergachev – Nick Perbix
Calvin de Haan – Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy – Jonas Johansson
PP1
Stamkos – Point – Kucherov – Hagel – Sergachev
PP2
Sheary – Paul – Eyssimont – Cirelli – Hedman
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Nikita Kucherov, 115 points
Brayden Point, 96 points
Steven Stamkos, 93 points
(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)
Top 300 Ranked Lightning (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
11. Nikita Kucherov, RW
18. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G
25. Brayden Point, C
33. Steven Stamkos, C
109. Victor Hedman, D
126. Mikhail Sergachev, D
131. Brandon Hagel, LW
275. Nick Paul, C
289. Conor Sheary, LW
Top 300 Ranked Lightning (Banger League) (Full List):
13. Nikita Kucherov, RW
23. Steven Stamkos, C
32. Brayden Point, C
33. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G
66. Mikhail Sergachev, D
70. Victor Hedman, D
121. Brandon Hagel, LW
205. Tanner Jeannot, RW
251. Nick Paul, C
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
It’s hard to pick when the team’s key players are all over 25, but if I had to pick a player who can exceed expectations, how about Michael Eyssimont? A fifth-round pick by the Kings in 2016, Eyssimont is entering just his third NHL season after splitting time with the Jets, Sharks and Lightning last season. He was the Jets’ top-scoring minor leaguer a season ago, and recent Lightning history is replete with hidden gems, from Ondrej Palat to Tyler Johnson to Yanni Gourde, who plied their way from the minors. Perhaps Eyssimont is a late bloomer, and given the lack of scoring depth outside their ‘Big Three,’ they’ll need someone to step up to lessen the load.
I’m not saying Eyssimont’s a deep sleeper in fantasy, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him flirt with 20 goals in a best-case scenario. He shoots at a pretty high rate considering how little ice time he gets. According to moneypuck.com, among forwards with at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5, Eyssimont ranks 29th (!) in the league with 19.59 shot attempts per 60 minutes, trailing Kucherov (19.81) and John Tavares (19.71), and ranks 22nd (!) with 11.24 shots on goal per 60 minutes, ahead of even Kirill Kaprizov (11.07).
If Eyssimont can get closer to 15 minutes per game after averaging 12:15 last season, we might be in for a little surprise. With 107 hits in 54 games last season, he’s also playing his way into banger league consideration as well.
Regression Candidate
Tough for any Lightning to regress after a somewhat surprising first-round ouster. If anything, the Lightning are poised to surprise to the upside with their longer-than-usual summer, and this is group that’s proven they’re still hungry even after multiple Cups.
But I do find it a little hard to believe Brayden Point will score 50 goals again. He’s been an elite-level finisher throughout his career, but his shot volume doesn’t guarantee 50 goals if his shooting percentage dips. He scored 20 of his goals on the power play when Stamkos is usually the preferred shooter, and I’ll take the under. Depending on the categories and positional requirements, Point and Stamkos should be taken around the second or third round in most leagues.
Goalies
Including the regular season and playoffs, no goalie has had a tougher workload than Andrei Vasilevskiy. Over the past five seasons, he’s started nearly twice as many games in the playoffs (81) as Sergei Bobrovsky, who ranks second on the list (46). Vasilevskiy’s the leader in wins (50), shutouts (7), shots against (2,479) and minutes (5123:40), all by a hefty margin. His workload has been immense, and that’s partially the reason why he faltered this past spring, finishing with a .875 SP and 3.56 GAA.
Given the longer layoff, Vasilevskiy should be well-rested going into the season, and the Lightning will be leaning heavily on him, too; Jonas Johansson, on his fifth NHL team in as many seasons with a career .886 SP, is slated to be his backup.
The Lightning zig when everyone zags, but this is an incredibly curious decision. Rather than preserving arguably their most important player for a long playoff run by signing a dependable, veteran backup, the Lightning are rolling the dice with a goalie who ranks 100th out of 105 goalies over the past three seasons in goals saved above average per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (min. 500 TOI), per naturalstattrick.com, and 82nd out of 82 goalies in overall save percentage (min. 25 GP).
While the league shifts towards tandems and limiting starters to 50-something starts, I get the feeling Vasilevskiy is going to take a run at Connor Hellebucyk for the most overused goalie. Of course, that’s great for fantasy, putting Vasilevskiy at the top of the food chain. He’s my second-ranked goalie in version 1.0 of my fantasy rankings, trailing only Ilya Sorokin and just ahead of Jake Oettinger and Hellebuyck.