2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Busts

Busts can take many forms. They can be players who fail to come close to reaching the level of their draft status, or players who had success or coming off a career year but plummetting back to earth

In cases like that, more times than not, those individuals are left on the waiver wire. Regression to the mean is real for many of those listed.

Chandler Stephenson, C, Kraken

Several contracts doled out on the first day of free agency raised eyebrows, possibly none more that Stephenson. Seattle signed Stephenson to a seven-year, $43.75 million contract despite the pivot coming off a drop in production from 64 and 65 points in 2021-22 and 2022-23 to 51 points last season. Stephenson is still a solid center but is he one worth more than $6 million-plus per season? 

Even more importantly, where does Stephenson slot in as the Kraken have a wealth of center depth, including Matty Beniers and Shane Wright. The latter could eventually result in Stephenson slotting on the third line, impacting his offense.

Charlie Coyle, C, Bruins

Coyle took advantage of the opportunity afforded him following the retirement of both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to slot into a top-six role as the second-line center. He set new career highs in 2023-24 with 25 goals and 60 points, including 11 power-play points after finishing the previous campaign without a single point on the man advantage. 

The Bruins signed free agent Elias Lindholm over the off-season to be their top-line pivot, and Matthew Poitras is primed to play a bigger role in his second year, so there's increased competition up the middle. Coyle might shift to the wing to alleviate the logjam, but a decline in production should be expected.

Frank Vatrano, C/LW, Ducks

Vatrano makes this list because he is coming off a career year, recording 37 goals and 60 points to go along with 85 penalty minutes, 78 blocked shots and 156 hits last season. His output was aided by a three-plus minute per game increase in ice time from the previous season, along with a rise in total shots and significant spike in shooting percentage.

Vatrano is in the final year of the three-year, $10.95-million contract he signed with the Ducks in July of 2022, making him a likely trade deadline casualty. Add in the presence of Cutter Gauthier and expected rebound of Trevor Zegras, coupled with a Ducks team looking to the future and Vatrano’s output is likely to suffer.

Lukas Reichel, LW, Blackhawks

Coming into last season, Reichel looked to be in a prime position as many penciled him to skate next to Connor Bedard. Reichel suffered through a brutal 2023-24 season, matching his prior campaign output of 16 points but in 65 games, rather than 23, along with a minus-16 rating. In addition, Reichel spent nearly a month with Rockford of the AHL after being demoted. The 17th pick of the 2020 draft, Reichel certainly has the talent to be a key cog in the Chicago attack, but the additions of Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen could cost the young winger power-play and regular ice time.

Blake Coleman, C/RW, Flames

If you look up pictures of surprising performances in 2023-24, Coleman might be the first one you see. Coleman set career highs in goals (30), assists (24) and points (54) last season despite never scoring more than 40 points in any previous campaigns.

Despite the output, Coleman’s hold on a top-six role is in doubt following the acquisition of Anthony Mantha and the emergence of Connor Zary and Andrei Kuzmenko. A move back to the third line would come with an associated decline in production.

Brandon Saad, LW, Blues

Saad posted 26 goals – his highest output since he notched 31 as a member of the Blue Jackets in 2015-16 – while adding 16 assists last season. He also managed to play all 82 games for this first time since 2017-18 when he was a member of the Blackhawks for the second time. 

Expecting similar output this year, despite his projected second-line placement, may be fool’s gold, as Saad was aided by an 18.1 percent shooting rate, his highest in any season where he skated in more than 44 games. Factor in the depth behind him and Saad could be fighting to keep his role in the Blues' top six.

Mike Matheson, D, Canadiens

Terming Matheson a bust might be a little harsh. He shattered his prior career high of 34 points, tallying 11 goals and 62 points last season. A major driver of that uplift came from the 28 points he tallied on the man-advantage, as he saw 3:41 of ice time on the power play.

Matheson is still the top dog on the Habs' power play, but Lane Hutson is next in line. The Habs are building for the future and a decline in output and ice time should be expected. How much depends on how quickly Hutson is viewed as ready.

Alex Pietrangelo, D, Golden Knights

Pietrangelo saw his output drop 21 points last season even though his ice time, including on the man-advantage, remained in line with the prior campaign. Part of that drop was due to a combination of a non-COVID illness and appendicitis. 

Now fully healthy, the prevailing opinion may be a return to form by Pietrangelo. While we expect a slight rise in production, the concern is the presence of Noah Hanifin for a full season coupled with Shea Theodore could cost Pietrangelo precious power-play minutes, adversely impacting his point total.

Frederik Andersen, G, Hurricanes

The great Dane suffered through another injury-filled campaign, playing in just 16 regular-season games. This comes just after similar reasons resulted in Andersen lining up between the pipes for 34 contests the prior season. Now fully healthy, Andersen could end up on the outside looking in as the team’s top goalie as Pyotr Kochetkov looks ready to ascend to that role. In the final year of the two-year, $4.8-million deal he signed in July 2022 to remain with the Canes, Andersen may slide into the backup role, limiting his win total.

Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Wild

Sooner or later, Father Time catches up to everyone. In the case of Fleury, it’s certainly later rather than sooner, but the sand is ticking through the hourglass. Last season, Fleury saw his goals-against average tick up and save percentage drop again.

He received additional starts in 2023-24 due to the struggles of Filip Gustavsson, and if Gustavsson doesn't bounce back, Fleury, who re-upped for one more season this past April, could share the crease with him again, Prospect Jesper Wallstedt, the future in net for the Wild, could also get the nod in net.

Honorable Mention:

Claude Giroux, C/RW, Ottawa Senators
Mikael Granlund, C/RW, San Jose Sharks
MacKenzie Weegar, D, Calgary Flames

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