2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Florida Panthers
The defending champs have brought back their core forwards. Will Sam Reinhart score 50 goals again? Unlikely, but they have other elite players who can pick up the slack and lead them (and your fantasy team) to glory again.
Florida Panthers
52-24-6, 110 Pts. 1st Atlantic, 5th Overall
3.23 GF/GP (11th), 2.41 GA/GP (1st), 23.5 PP% (8th), 82.5 PK% (6th)
Top scorer: Sam Reinhart. 82 GP, 57-37-94, plus-29, 27 PPG, 233 Shots, 20:18 TOI/GP
2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:
Opening: +900
Current: +900 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 4.2%. Handle: 5.1% (as of August 22, 2024)
2023-24 Fantasy Recap
What more can you say about the Stanley Cup champions? Everyone acknowledged the Panthers were a good team, but most picked the Rangers or the Hurricanes to come out of the East, and the Panthers did stumble across the finishing line, going 12-8-2 to close out the final month-and-half of the season.
It was kind of a shocking season in some ways, starting with Sam Reinhart's ridiculous 57-goal campaign in a contract year. His efficiency was simply absurd; he scored on one-quarter of his shots, came close to setting a record in the cap era with 27 power-play goals, and finished second in total goals even though he was tied-19th in even-strength goals and tied-41st in shots. Even those betting on a contract year couldn't have expected Reinhart to surpass his previous career high by 24 goals.
There was also Sergei Bobrovsky, who bounced back from a disappointing season and led the league with six shutouts, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, a highly successful reclamation project following a buyout from the Canucks. Both were vital to their Cup run.
The key to the Panthers' successful season and a big reason they offered solid options in fantasy was because there were no significant negative surprises. Brandon Montour was a risky pick in fantasy to begin with due to his off-season injury rehab, and there was little chance he could've replicated his 73-point season. Other than a few injuries here and there, and a rotating cast of fourth-line players, the Panthers were excellent as a group, especially defensively with a league-low 2.41 GA/GP.
2024-25 Fantasy Outlook
As with any previous Cup-winning team, the Panthers return to defend their title with a weaker roster on paper. They couldn't afford to keep everyone under the cap, including Ekman-Larsson, who joined the Leafs, and veteran Vladimir Tarasenko, who joined the Red Wings.
The Panthers have the second-best Cup odds as of Aug. 22, 2024, trailing only the Oilers (+850), but repeats are difficult, which explains why there's been so little action (both handle % and ticket %) on the Panthers.
The obvious takeaway is that Reinhart is not going to score 57 goals again. The conditions have to be right for him to do so, and it won't be nearly the same even though the Panthers' core has managed to stay intact. To be clear, Reinhart is not a first-round pick in standard leagues but will likely finish the season in the 35-goal, 80-point range.
That's still an excellent result, but I would still pick Matthew Tkachuk, especially in banger leagues, and captain Aleksander Barkov, who has more offensive upside, over Reinhart. Tkachuk and Barkov are excellent fantasy options and it would not be surprising if one or both of them led the team in scoring, as they've done in the past. I don't even think the fantasy value between Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe is way off, either, considering he has slightly better shot volume and also a 40-goal threat.
"Reinhart should be in the 40-goal range. His 57-goal breakout last season was amazing to watch, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue getting the puck to the net. Reinhart has shown an ability to score regardless of which line he’s on, whether on the first line with Sasha Barkov or on the third line with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. If he leads the NHL in power play goals again, another 50-goal season might be in the cards."
- THN Florida editor David Dwork on Reinhart
The one question I do have is Gustav Forsling. He's an excellent two-way defenseman, and seems to have leapfrogged Aaron Ekblad as their preferred No. 1. Forsling's very good at moving the puck, but I don't see the dynamic offense that can put him in the upper echelon of fantasy defensemen, and he's not guaranteed to play PP1, either. Forsling's a safe pick, scoring around 30-40 points and adding 100 blocks and 100 hits. Despite his usage and role on a Cup-winning squad, Forsling is not remotely close to being in the same tier as the Panthers' core forwards.
The lack of quality depth on 'D' means the Panthers might have a hard time becoming the league's toughest defensive team again. There will be no plus-56 from Forsling, but it could also mean the Panthers sacrifice a little bit more on offense to play better defense, and it could also make Bobrovsky's job a little harder.
The other player of intrigue is Spencer Knight, who is expected to back up Bobrovsky after Anthony Stolarz left for the Leafs. He spent all of last season in the AHL after going through the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program to treat his obsessive-compulsive disorder in February of 2023. Bobrovsky will be 36 years old on Sept. 20, and his workload will certainly be a topic throughout the season. That opens the door for Knight to potentially see significant action, making him at least worth streaming in most standard fantasy leagues.
2024-25 Projected Lineup
(updated Oct. 7, 2024)
Even Strength
Carter Verhaeghe - Aleksander Barkov - Sam Reinhart
Evan Rodrigues - Sam Bennett - Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen - Anton Lundell - Mackie Samoskevich
A.J. Greer - Jesper Boqvist - Jonah Gadjovich
Gustav Forsling - Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola - Dmitry Kulikov
Uvis Balinskis - Adam Boqvist
Sergei Bobrovsky - Chris Driedger
ex: Mackenzie Entwistle, William Lockwood, Nate Schmidt
Injured: Justin Sourdif (undisclosed, week-to-week as of Sept. 26), Tomas Nosek (upper body, no return date set)
Power Play
Verhaeghe - Barkov - Reinhart - Tkachuk - Boqvist
Rodrigues - Bennett - Lundell - Samoskevich - Balinskis
Sleeper: Sam Bennett, C
Bennett's issue is that he's been an injury risk for most of his career. That's just due to his playing style but, when healthy, Bennett is fantastic in banger leagues with 50-point upside, 200-plus shots, 100-plus hits and having the benefit of having Tkachuk on his right wing. He'll center L2 and PP2; make sure he's not being overlooked in your league.
Yahoo's pre-season ranking has ranked him 155th, which means he'll likely get drafted in most leagues, but even at that slot I think you can get good value. Bennett was rostered in just 20 percent of leagues last season even though he scored at a very similar pace as Juraj Slafkovsky (76% rostered) and Elias Lindholm (65% rostered).
Sleeper No. 2: Aaron Ekblad, D
A bonus for you since it's worth noting Ekblad is ranked very far down Yahoo's pre-season list at No. 281. Ekblad has been a very underwhelming player in fantasy throughout his career, save for that 2021-22 season where he scored 57 points in 61 games, including 20 on the power play.
And that's the key here; with Brandon Montour signing with the Kraken, it's opened the door for Ekblad to return to PP1. It's one of the league's most talented power plays and Ekblad's always been pretty good at getting his shots through. If he can up his shooting volume to around 2.5 shots per game, we might see Ekblad hit 50 points. For a late-round flier, I think Ekblad's a great value pick. It doesn't feel like a value trap, at all, since Ekblad is still in his prime entering his age-28 season.
Breakout: Anton Lundell, C
The definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over again and expecting a different result, but in this case I'd rather be called insane than miss out on Lundell's breakout season.
Primarily used as a matchup center, which has in turn freed up Barkov on offense, I firmly believe Lundell will have a breakout 60-point season sooner or later. It's not particularly noteworthy in fantasy, but Lundell goes undrafted in almost all leagues. He'll need to shoot the puck more, get more minutes, especially on the power play, to do so — it's a lot, I know — but he's also vastly underperformed his expected goals over the past two season, per naturalstattrick.com.
His 67.65 IPP at 5-on-5 suggests Lundell is a strong play driver, and that's easy to see with the eyes, but he's also a remarkably unlucky shooter, shooting below eight percent (!) in each of the past two seasons. His on-ice shooting percentage of 7.23 percent at 5-on-5 ranks 315th (!) out of 373 players (min. 1000 TOI), comparable to Casey Cizikas and Radek Faksa, both of whom are capable but low-scoring bottom-six centers.
Either Lundell has one of the worst goal-scoring abilities in the league or he'll end up figuring it out and score more goals. I'm betting on the latter, especially after such a strong playoff run with 17 points in 24 games. He shot 10.3 percent during that span, by the way.
"Lundell is entering his fourth season and will be 23 years old when opening night arrives. He really seemed to turn a corner last season, both with his production and overall ability to positively impact the game on both ends of the ice.
Florida is very deep down the middle, which will keep Lundell likely centering the Panthers third line, but based on his age, his growing skill set and confidence and the talent that he’s surrounded by, we may see Lundell take the next step many of us have been waiting for."
- THN Florida editor David Dwork on Lundell's potential breakout this season
Bounce-back: Spencer Knight, G
There's still a strong belief Knight is the Panthers' goalie of the future. If Knight is the backup over Chris Driedger, and in all likelihood he will be, it'll be Knight's first minute of NHL action since February 2023. The 23-year-old is in the second year of a three-year contract, and it's a pivotal moment of his young career so far.
That Knight is making a return to the NHL is already quite the accomplishment. Last season, Knight played in 45 games in the AHL, compiling a 25-14-5 record with a 2.41 GAA and .905 SP. Depending on how well Knight plays, he should be a popular streaming option for the 2024-25 season. It's unlikely Bobrovsky will cede the starting job barring an injury or disastrous play, so there's little upside in stashing Knight. Just stream and move on, and repeat.
Bust: Gustav Forsling, D
Ekblad was a sleeper so it infers that I don't think too highly of Forsling this season — and I don't. As I wrote in the outlook, Forsling's a safe pick but he's also ranked in Yahoo's top 100, and I can't help but feel there's a lot of recency bias. I raised both eyebrows when Forsling was ranked as the No. 6 defenseman in the league, ahead of Adam Fox and Charlie Coyle. Forsling had an excellent playoff, but he's never really been an offensive defenseman, which is primarily what you're looking for in fantasy.
Without an assured spot on PP1 and with no real pedigree of scoring points at the same rate as Fox or Coyle, Forsling doesn't quite have the ability or the opportunity to be a top-tier fantasy defenseman. Just as Ekblad feels like a good value pick in the later rounds, Forsling feels like a poor value pick in the early rounds. If Forsling falls in the draft, it's okay to draft him, but there's no sense reaching for him when so many are better then him. There were 35 defensemen who scored more points than Forsling last season.
"Ekblad has always shown more on the offensive side of things, but he also has received much more time on the power play than Forsling. If Forsling receives regular PP time this season, that would be the thing that could really boost his scoring."
- THN Florida editor David Dwork on Ekblad vs. Forsling
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yrVLqzEwpw[/embed]
Goalies
Bobrovsky's age basically mandates that he can't be a workhorse, but it's highly likely he'll still get his 50 games. The blue line is a little weaker but the Panthers play such a strong team game that as long as their structure holds and their top players play at both ends, as they usually do, then Bobrovsky will stop a lot of pucks and win a lot of games. He can still be incredibly streaky, as any manager who's rostered Bobrovsky before understands that you need to ride the waves. Overall, he remains a top-10 goalie, but definitely closer to 10 than top-five.
That means Knight will likely see 25-30 games, a workload comparable to his excellent rookie season where he was 19-9-3 and forcing the Panthers to wonder if Knight had really arrived so much sooner than expected. I think Knight will be a strong streaming option all season.
Jason’s Top 5 Point Projections
Matthew Tkachuk, RW - 38-56-94
Aleksander Barkov, C - 28-59-87
Carter Verhaeghe, LW - 36-41-77
Sam Reinhart, RW - 34-40-74
Sam Bennett, C - 27-25-52
Yahoo Pre-season Rankings
12. Matthew Tkachuk, LW/RW
16. Sam Reinhart, C/RW
37. Aleksander Barkov, C
43. Carter Verhaeghe, C/LW
50. Sergei Bobrovsky, G
93. Gustav Forsling, D
155. Sam Bennett, C
235. Evan Rodrigues, C/LW
249. Anton Lundell, C/RW
280. Eetu Luostarinen, C
281. Aaron Ekblad, D
397. Spencer Knight, G
739. Adam Boqvist, D
905. Justin Sourdif, RW
919. Mackie Samoskevich, RW
Remember to bookmark The Hockey News Fantasy site for stats, news, analysis, rankings, projections and more, including the Sleepers and Keepers fantasy hockey podcast!
Related:
Click the image below to receive your free issue of the 2024-25 THN Poolbook.
