3 tips to help you rebuild your aging keeper team.
Presumably, you’ve been dominant in your keeper league because you’ve managed to draft young players who blossomed into superstars, and kept them through their prime.
But Father Time is undefeated, and there comes a point where an aging player’s production falls off a cliff and they're no longer keeper-level players. If Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin are your keepers right now, surely, you’re thinking… how do I rebuild a keeper team?
The answer’s straightforward but the process is certainly painful. Tough decisions have to be made – we get attached to certain players, I know – and there’s going to be a season or two where you finish at the bottom. Just as in real life, tanking is a legitimate strategy, because it grants you high picks the following season to pick those budding superstars.
Here are three tips to rebuild your aging keeper team:
1. Trade everyone
No player should be off limits, and you should especially trade those players who are still effective but in their 30’s. Based on the aging curves of the average player, point production starts declining once they hit 29 to 30 years old, and it falls off every year after that. There are exceptions, of course, but that’s also the beauty of trading a player like Crosby – you can still get a lot for him.
Depending on how active your league is, teams that bound for the playoffs will want to reinforce their roster, making them prime trade partners. Goalies are a hot commodity entering the fantasy playoffs every season and tend to be easier to trade. In most leagues, draft picks can be traded, and you want to target the picks in the early rounds, obviously.
2. Upside, upside, upside
Whatever you are offered in return for your aging player, a reminder that the most desirable trait is upside. Never mind that he’s a rookie playing bottom-six minutes or a sophomore going through a slump. The focus is on what this player can be two or three seasons from now. Invariably, there will be misses because hunting for upside is naturally a high-risk, high-reward strategy, but if you can get the likes of Mika Zibanejad after his sixth season when he scored just 47 points, or Mikko Rantanen following his ho-hum 38-point rookie season – just prior to their huge breakouts – it’s going to pay huge dividends. Don’t be afraid to make bold moves.
Fantasy teams in the running for a championship will be willing to part with these players because they need players who can make significant contributions right away. It requires you to have a good knowledge of players who are climbing the ranks, but the search is totally worthwhile. The good part is, the league is flush with young talent to comb through.
Make a mental note in April to look out for rookies turning pro, either from the NCAA or the CHL. The NCAA players tend to be older and more polished, and therefore more likely to make an impact right away. Luke Hughes, for example, signed his ELC on April 8, and he would’ve been a great target for a rebuilding keeper league to roster and stash for next season. A fantasy team looking to win the championship most likely has zero room for a rookie defenseman on their roster.
3. Draft well
Drafting well goes without saying, but the key is to not stray from a draft strategy. If you’re rebuilding, avoid picking veteran players. Some will be too good to pass up due to draft value, but the focus should be on collecting young players, especially in the late rounds. Top prospects such as Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli and Logan Cooley can jumpstart your keeper league team, and a rebuilding keeper team should draft these players higher than their draft value, but also know that there are a lot of managers who want them as well.
The middle and late rounds are where you can really take your shots. William Eklund and Matt Coronato are less-heralded prospects who will have a chance to play top-six roles right away. Even those with more experience, such as Dawson Mercer or Seth Jarvis, are great picks because they’re at the point where they are really going to break out and have monster seasons.
To help you along, here are:
- 8 breakout candidates, including: Lukas Reichel, who’s having an awesome camp so far and slated to be the Blackhawks’ No. 2 center; Alex Newhook, who will surely see career-high minutes with the rebuildling Habs; Devils sniper Alexander Holtz, who’s been seen playing on the second line with Nico Hischier and Timo Meier; and Cam York, who could potentially quarterback the Flyers’ top power play.
- 10 sophomores poised for a breakout, including: Cole Perfetti, whom the Jets will give every opportunity to be the No. 2 center; Calen Addison, a candidate to quarterback the Wild’s top power play; and Dylan Guenther, who played on a line with Cooley and Jason Zucker for the Coyotes during their preseason games.
- 10 rookie forwards to target, including: Leafs left winger Matthew Knies, who may open the season with John Tavares; Flames sniper Matt Coronato, who scored a hat trick in his pre-season debut; top-six Preds winger Luke Evangelista; and last year’s playoff hero for the Kraken, Tye Kartye.
- 5 rookie defensemen and 2 rookie goalies to target, including: the Kings’ offensive whiz kid, Brandt Clarke; projected Sabres starter Devon Levi; and Flames third-string Dustin Wolf, who was a two-time goalie of the year in the WHL and AHL.