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    Jason Chen
    Jason Chen
    Jul 31, 2023, 14:00

    Matty Beniers made headlines last season, but which second-year players will become relevant in fantasy in 2023-24?

    Matty Beniers made headlines last season, but which second-year players will become relevant in fantasy in 2023-24?

    David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports - Top 10 Sophomores for 2023-24

    The 2022-23 rookie class proved to be impressive. Owen Power, Matty Beniers and Mason McTavish, the top three overall picks in 2021, all stepped in and contributed right away. Rookies don’t tend to have much impact in fantasy, unless they’re a generational talent such as Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid or the incoming Connor Bedard and the 2023-24 class.

    Young players tend to fare much better in their second seasons when they’ve gotten stronger and accumulated some experience. On this list, the three Calder finalists – Beniers, Power and Stuart Skinner – are excluded, and so are the four others who gained at least 100 points in Calder voting: Matias Maccelli, Wyatt Johnston, Jake Sanderson and McTavish. They’re obvious draft targets for the 2023-24 fantasy season already.

    Here's a look at 10 lesser-known sophomores, ranked by potential upside, who are expected to make a significant leap in their production following their rookie seasons.

    1. Cole Perfetti, C, Jets (Potential role: L2/L3, PP2)

    The most encouraging stat in Perfetti’s rookie season was scoring over 80 percent of his points at even strength. He is the Jets’ most NHL-ready prospect and seen as a core player in the post-Blake Wheeler era, and he finished third in points per game (0.59 P/GP, min. 25 GP) among rookies behind Maccelli and Beniers.

    The additions of Alex Iafallo and Gabe Vilardi, both of whom have more experience than Perfetti, makes the competition for ice time much stiffer, but it also potentially provides Perfetti with more quality linemates. Perfetti will be a popular late-round pick in most drafts to his upside and potential top-six role. Look for Perfetti to gain dual-position eligibility as a winger early in the season as well for added flexibility in fantasy lineups.

    2. Calen Addison, D, Wild (5D/6D, PP1)

    Addison has a lot of sneaky fantasy value. He’ll play sheltered minutes at even strength because Dean Evason doesn’t seem to trust him very much in his own end, but what Addison lacks on defense, he will make up on offense. He steps in as their top power-play quarterback and shares the ice with an elite scorer in Kirill Kaprizov.

    Among the offensive specialists at a thin position in fantasy, Addison’s upside is substantial, and he’s a far better value pick than, say, John Klingberg on the Leafs. Last season, among defensemen who logged at least 200 minutes on the power play, Addison ranked first in CF% at 5-on-5 (92.29%), slightly higher than Adam Fox and Quinn Hughes, and generated the sixth-best expected goals per 60 minutes. The sample size isn’t huge, but it suggests Addison has the potential to be an elite point producer from the blue line.

    3. Logan Thompson, G, Golden Knights (1A/1B starter)

    Adin Hill is pencilled in as the starter but it would be surprising if he stayed in that spot all season. The truth is, Hill has never played more than 27 games in the NHL – which he accomplished last season – and his track record hasn’t always been good. Last season, Thompson ranked 21st out of 77 goalies in goals saved above average per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (min. 500 TOI), while Hill ranked 33rd.

    All bets are off if Robin Lehner returns, but look for Thompson and Hill to operate some sort of time share. As the reigning Cup champions, there’s a ton of upside, especially since Bruce Cassidy’s system limits shots to the outside and makes stopping pucks a little easier. Goalies are always a thin position in fantasy, and Thompson is an erstwhile gamble in the middle to late rounds in most fantasy drafts.

    4. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G, Sabres (Starter)

    Luukonen was one of three goalies to start at least 30 games and win 10 of them, a good start to a promising career. Entering the 2023-24 season, he has a good chance to win the starting job for the upstart Sabres. He certainly has the ability after an impressive six-game winning streak last season, but consistency is always an issue with young goalies.

    His competition in camp will be Eric Comrie, who is coming off an injury-riddled season and in a contract year, and top prospect Devon Levi, who is one of the top rookie goalies to watch this season. Luukkonen’s edge over Comrie is his age and potential, and his edge over Levi are CBA rules; Levi can be assigned to the AHL without going through waivers, unlike Luukkonen, who will surely be claimed. If Luukkonen can win the starting job, he’ll be a serviceable depth goalie in fantasy with a chance to win at least 20 games.

    5. Kirill Marchenko, RW, Blue Jackets (L1/L2/L3, PP2)

    Marchenko had one of the best Cy Young stat lines in the league last season with 21 goals and just four assists in 59 games. If it isn’t abundantly obvious, Marchenko is a high-end goal scorer, scoring seven of his goals on the power play and averaging more than two shots per game. He’ll need a playmaker to help set him up – and that could be Johnny Gaudreau, whom Marchenko spent the most time with at 5-on-5.

    There’s no shortage of young talent on the Jackets, but asides from Adam Fantilli and Patrik Laine, no one else is better at scoring goals. If the Jackets opt to play Marchenko opposite Guadreau again, Marchenko has immense fantasy value with 30-goal potential (but with few assists), and he’ll be readily available in the late rounds in nearly all fantasy drafts.

    6. JJ Peterka, RW, Sabres (L2/L3, PP2)

    Peterka was a nice surprise last season, scoring 32 points in 77 games. He can play either wing and will end up on either the second or third line. Jack Quinn is worth mentioning, but Peterka gets the edge on this list with Quinn expected to miss the start of the season due to an Achilles injury.

    That sets the table for Peterka to play more minutes right away, though the Sabres have another wave of rookies coming in, led by Jiri Kulich, Lukas Rousek, Zach Benson and Matthew Savoie. Peterka can be a good source of points over the course of the season as a waiver-wire pick-up.

    7. Noah Cates, LW, Flyers (2C/3C, PP2)

    Sean Couturier is expected to return, which will bump Cates down a little on the depth chart, but the former fifth-round draft pick endeared himself to John Tortorella, which means that his ice time likely won’t diminish a whole lot. Morgan Frost is Cates’ biggest competition for ice time, and Frost will have the edge in most offensive situations.

    Cates profiles as middle-six, two-way center, but one who can potentially score 20 goals with room for improvement playing with the Flyers’ best wingers. Last season, Cates spent most of his even-strength minutes playing with top scorer Travis Konecny, and that pairing may continue if Cam Atkinson or Owen Tippett plays with Sean Couturier. Cates is worth a late-round flyer – excuse the pun – in deep leagues. Cates is listed a LW but will surely gain C eligibility early in the season, and his ability to earn faceoff wins from the LW slot will be valuable.

    8. Dylan Guenther, RW, Coyotes (3RW/4RW, PP2)

    This will be Guenther’s first full season in the pros after splitting the season between the NHL and WHL last season, though he’s no longer considered a rookie after playing 33 games. Like a few other players on this list, Guenther finds himself in a fight for ice time due to the additions made by his team over the summer, including Jason Zucker and Alex Kerfoot, and also top prospect Logan Cooley after they signed him to an entry-level deal.

    Guenther was a prolific scorer in major junior, and quickly proved he can do it in the pros with four power-play goals and 53 shots. If he can secure a middle-six role and some power play time, Guenther has the potential to pot 20 goals while adding some shots and hits for multi-category coverage.

    9. Juuso Parssinen, C, Predators (3C/4C, PP2)

    Parssinen had a great run in January last season, scoring 12 points in 13 games, including a seven-game point streak. It was enough to earn him some attention as a waiver-wire pick-up, and there’s some sneaky upside for the late-blooming seventh-round pick. He turned into a top player for TPS Turku two years after being drafted, and after scoring nine points in 10 games for AHL Milwaukee prior to his call-up, spent nearly his entire rookie season with the Preds. Parssinen finished the season with the highest expected goals percentage among Preds forwards at 5-on-5, just slightly ahead of Filip Forsberg.

    Signing Ryan O’Reilly puts a damper on Parssinen’s bid for a spot in the top six, and he’ll also have to compete with Cody Glass and Tommy Novak, another late bloomer, for ice time. Parssinen’s fantasy value is obviously tied to where he plays in the lineup, and should he win a top-six spot out of camp, he’s worth adding to your watch list to see if he can go on a hot streak like he did last season.

    10. Jonatan Berggren, RW, Red Wings (L3/L4, PP2)

    Berggren is a wizard with the puck, especially on the power play where he scored one-third of his total goals. The 23-year-old right winger doesn’t have much to prove in the AHL after scoring 71 points in 77 games over the past two seasons, but the additions of Alex DeBrincat, Christian Fischer, Klim Kostin and Daniel Sprong will definitely make ice time hard to come by.

    It’s a crowded roster and Berggren will need to win a spot in the middle six and on the second power play unit to be a productive player in fantasy. There’s no need to draft Berggren, but he’s a streaky scorer who will find his way onto a fantasy roster at some point this season.

    Bonus:

    11. Shane Pinto, C, Senators (2C/3C, PP2)

    Pinto ranks outside of the top 10 at the current moment as an unsigned RFA. He spent most of the season as the Sens’ No. 2 center last season, but with Josh Norris returning from injury, Pinto gets knocked back down to the No. 3 spot. Pinto’s a strong two-way player but doesn’t have nearly the same offensive upside as Norris or Tim Stützle. His offensive upside is modest with 25-goal, 50-point potential at the higher end, making him valuable only as a streaming option or in the deepest of leagues.

    Honourable Mention:

    Rafael Harvey-Pinard, LW, Canadiens; Dylan Holloway, LW, Oilers; Jake Neighbours, LW, Blues; Jack McBain, C, Coyotes; Juraj Slafkovsky, RW, Canadiens; Kaiden Guhle, D, Canadiens; Arber Xhekaj, D, Canadiens; Pyotr Kochetkov, G, Hurricanes

    All positions courtesy of Yahoo! Fantasy. All advanced stats courtesy naturalstattrick.com.