JJ Peterka thrives alongside David Pastrnak while Bowen Byram’s heavy usage yields zero production.
The weekend is coming. Who’s hot, who’s not, and who’s ready to make noise? The Friday Fantasy Notebook recaps the week’s biggest developments and sets the stage for the weekend’s must-watch players, matchups and storylines.
Boston Bruins
If you bought low on JJ Peterka, congratulations. He’s got the coveted L1 and PP1 role with Pastrnak, and scored a great goal against the Rangers. Though he registered just one shot on goal, he had five shot attempts. The Bruins’ top line was very effective against the Rangers, controlling 56.52 percent of shot attempts generated the most expected goals at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick. That’s very encouraging.
The underlying numbers for Peterka were good last season – close to career bests, actually – and increased TOI and better linemates should boost his fantasy value greatly. He’s rostered in only 56 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Chicago Blackhawks
Bowen Byram’s first two games as a Hawk: 24:59 TOI/GP, zero shots, zero hits, three blocks, minus-4 rating. I was as shocked as anybody when he got that massive contract without proving a whole lot except having some good underlying numbers, and this is just more of the same: lots of ice time, skates well, carries the puck well, but does nothing with it. Former colleague Michael Amato likes to call these cardio games, and there’s no better way to describe the lack of production despite substantial usage.
Let’s be clear, though; the Blackhawks have stunk. They’re getting buried and I’m not sure even the return of Bedard can fix this. That puts a huge damper on Byram’s fantasy value, who was slated to post career highs across the board this season if only because he’s getting all the minutes he wasn’t getting in Colorado and Buffalo. But, if he doesn’t shoot the puck and he’s stuck scrambling all the time, how’s he going to put up numbers? It’s early in the season and Byram should be rostered, but just don’t expect much until the Hawks figure it out. In my pre-season power rankings:
“The worst thing the Blackhawks can do is become stagnant, and there’s a slight danger it will happen this season.”
Columbus Blue Jackets
Pretty impressive win against the Sabres with Matthew Knies (2-1-3, 4 shots) making a strong debut and Charlie Coyle (3 assists, 2 hits) continuing where he left off last season. The Jackets have a pretty balanced offense but Werenski is their only elite play driver, so don’t be surprised if he leads the team in scoring and they have a smattering of 50-point players like they did last season. Maybe Knies changes that, but I’m not convinced yet.
One player really worth noting: Denton Mateychuk played 27:28 (!) and finished with one assist and two shots, and this might be a huge breakout season for the 12th overall pick from 2022. Should the Jackets and Werenski part ways, I believe Mateychuk is the defenseman they’ll try to build around. Mateychuk is rostered in eight percent of Yahoo leagues and I think he could be a strong depth option with 40-plus points, 100-plus blocks and close to 150 shots.
Edmonton Oilers
It took one game to break Mike Babcock. “That was ridiculous,” he said after their first game, and nearly blew an 8-2 lead last night against the Canucks.
I think it’s hilarious that Babcock, with his winning pedigree and all, took a hard look after the first game and still decided playing 29 and 97 together was his best option. He can only do so much with this roster, and so much for not wanting to rely on Draisaitl (20:47 TOI/GP) and McDavid (22:27 TOI/GP) so much this season. They could barely beat the Canucks like this and, I mean, just look at this roster:
Tristan Jarry and Devon Levi are streaming options despite playing on a strong team, and it’s anybody’s guess what kind of performance you’ll get each night. Remember Adin Hill (10-9-6, .870 SP, 3.04 GAA) last season with the winning record but ugly numbers? I think that’ll be the case here until they tighten things up or Frederik Andersen (21% rostered) returns, who’s worth a stash because he’s clearly their best option right now and he hasn’t played a single minute.
One positive: the fantasy hype with Vasily Podkolzin is real. He’s a tools-y player without an elite skill, but he’s a bulldog and isn’t afraid to get into the dirty areas. His game is simple, and on a line with 29 and 97, he’s going to be a huge beneficiary. Only 46 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues with four points, including three on the power play, seven hits and 11 shots. He should be picked up right now.
Florida Panthers
What a massive, massive blow to lose Aleksander Barkov. I took him in the early rounds in one of my leagues and you’re hoping he doesn’t miss significant time. He suffered an apparent non-contact injury to his left leg against the Sharks and immediately left the game.
Barkov hurt his right knee last season, but it’s not uncommon to hurt the other leg because of overcompensation. The Panthers were lost without him last season and their Cup chances significantly diminish without him; he’s irreplaceable in fantasy with his point-per-game potential and faceoff wins, and everyone's fantasy value on the Panthers will dip because of it.
Jacob Markstrom was supposed to get a difficult test but the Canes might’ve played their worst game of the season (uncharacteristically horrendous 36.36 5v5 CF%) in the home opener following the banner raise, so I don’t think we get much of a read from a 15-save shutout. Akira Schmid (28 saves, 2 EV GA) was fine – I thought he should’ve had Will Smith’s OT winner – but clearly Markstrom’s the No. 1 and should be in line for at least 30 wins. Stick with him but it does sound like the Panthers will give Schmid plenty of starts given Markstrom is 36 years old.
Philadelphia Flyers
Horrendous start to the season. They were shellacked by the rival Pens, 7-0, and outshot 44-25 in an OTL in New Jersey, and it would’ve been another blowout had it not been for Joseph Woll (41 saves, .932 SP, 14% rostered), who totally deserves another start.
Woll could end up having a better season than Dan Vladar (61% rostered), who had a really solid season out of nowhere last year because he had been a below-average goalie every season in Calgary. Is he a one-season wonder? Right now, I’d consider stashing Woll or at least keeping an eye on him as a wait-and-see option.
As a whole, though, the Flyers need to be way better. They’re getting tooled right now, with the league’s worst possession metrics, per NST. Their passing stinks and they’re not playing with a lot of jam.
Tocchet was juggling lines by the second game and Calder candidate and fantasy sleeper Porter Martone was benched in the third period. It’s early, but it’s not looking good. With a Yahoo ADP of 68.5, there's definitely a lot of buyer's remorse early, but a reminder we are only on Game 3 and it's a long, 84-game season. Stick with Martone as it's just too early to give up now.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Arturs Silovs (22% rostered) wasn’t tested much but he looked fine with a 19-save shutout after a bad preseason where it looked like he might lost the starting job. That battle in the crease with Sergei Murashov (31% rostered) is worth tracking if the Pens can keep this up.
That 7-0 shellacking is clearly not going to happen every night, but I thought a lot of the Pens’ depth players were really good. Filip Hallander was a highly-touted prospect, suffered a bunch of injuries, went back to Sweden and dominated, and now could play a big role for them. Another lesson to be patient with prospects.
But the real fantasy impact player is Nick Robertson (6% rostered), who looked quick and dangerous, and is the early-season favourite to be the best sleeper/breakout of the year. If he sticks on L1, I think he can be a really good depth scorer in 12-team leagues.
Vancouver Canucks
Paul Cotter (4% rostered) had an incredible debut and I’ve been a fan since New Jersey. He’s a big, bruising player with good hands who can score goals. He’s not a Kiefer Sherwood, but if you need a streaming option for hits and the potential for goals, he’s your guy. So far: three goals, four points, four shots, seven hits, 12 faceoff wins from LW position.
Elias Pettersson had four points against the Oilers, including two on the power play, 25 faceoff wins (!), eight hits in one game (!) and two blocks. The PPG was encouraging because he had been so reluctant to shoot in the past few seasons. I would like to see him face non-Oilers goalies before we start the comeback-player-of-the-year narrative, though he’s just 51 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues. For a former 102-point player, that percentage is still far too low even if you don’t think he’s never getting back to that level.
One thing about this Canucks team is that they’re playing a lot freer. That’s not good for their defense but good for their offense and building confidence for a team that seemed far too easy to play against and couldn’t get on the same page for most of last season.
Weekend Games
Saturday
Blackhawks (0-2-0) at Sabres (0-1-0), 7 p.m. EDT
Can Byram get a shot on goal? If he does, fantasy managers can panic a little less.
Who starts in net for the Sabres and what impact will it have on their rotation going forward? Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (82% rostered) allowed five goals in the season opener; does Colten Ellis (2% rostered) impress to battle for the job?
Senators (0-0-0) at Maple Leafs (1-1-0), 7 p.m. EDT
Sens’ season opener and their only game this week. They get four games next week, though, so keep an eye on William Eklund (49% rostered), who was brought in to replace Tkachuk.
Hurricanes (0-0-1) at Flyers (0-1-1), 7 p.m. EDT
The Canes should storm into the Flyers’ barn after an embarrassing home opener, but the Flyers should be just as motivated after two really bad games.
The key storyline is who gets the start for the Flyers. I think Woll’s earned it; a win might keep him in net, a loss and the Flyers are back to the rotation.
Sunday
Jets (0-0-0) at Red Wings (0-0-0), 1 p.m. EDT
A game where the most interesting storylines are off the ice with Hellebuyck and Larkin’s trade requests. This will be the Wings’ second game following their season opener on Friday; I’m interested to see how long they stick with Andrew Copp as their 1C.
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