A trade to the Devils gives Jacob Markstrom's fantasy value a huge boost. But by how much?

Look, I know goalies can be a complete crapshoot in fantasy. The zero-G strategy — where goalies are not taken in the early or middle rounds of the draft, if at all — has grown in popularity for this reason. 

Any goalie can look like a world-beater for a month, but almost nobody does over a full season. We just saw how the Cup finalist starters, Sergei Bobrovsky and Stuart Skinner, faltered for stretches, too. 

The other side of the truth, sadly, is that every fantasy team needs a goalie.

As part of their on-going rebuild, the Flames dealt starting goalie Jacob Markstrom to the Devils on June 19, receiving a 2025 first-round pick and towering defenseman Kevin Bahl in return. 

The Devils and Flames consummate a trade that was rumored back at the trade deadline, which reportedly fell through when the two sides couldn't agree on how much salary the Flames should retain. 

This begs the question, spurred by a conversation in the Sleepers and Keepers podcast: Is Jacob Markstrom a top-10 fantasy goalie?

There is no doubt moving to the Devils improves Markstrom's fantasy value. He'll be backstopping a team that provides much better goal support, finishing 12th in GF/GP (3.22) even though Jack Hughes played just 62 games while Dougie Hamilton missed 62. 

It was good for Markstrom to get out; otherwise, he'd be a marginal fantasy asset with the potential for a high volume of saves but poor save percentages and hard-to-get wins. The Devils are on the upswing while the Flames are stuck somewhere between stagnation and decline.

Markstrom is not, by a long shot, a top-10 goalie based on ability. But being a top-10 fantasy goalie requires something different, and it starts with being on a good team.

Sheldon Keefe looks like a great hire. Though he never led the Leafs to glory, Keefe led them to the playoffs for five straight seasons and their young players excelled under his tutelage. With Keefe behind the bench, the Leafs ranked first in GF/GP (3.55), ninth in GA/GP (2.93) and seventh on the PK (83.5%) over his entire stint. 

The Devils ranked in the 65th percentile in high-danger shots on goal last season, compared to the Flames who were below the league average. The Leafs, meanwhile, finished in the 96th percentile in both shots and goals under Keefe. 

High-danger scoring is one area where the Devils may improve significantly. Achieving this will require a healthy Jack Hughes, but Keefe has similar pieces with the Devils as he did with the Leafs: a bona fide offensive center with elite shot volume to build around in Hughes; a reliable second center to take matchups in Nico Hischier; an underrated play-driving winger in Jesper Bratt; and an all-situations defender in Luke Hughes. The Devils are also built to be quick, fast and agile; key ingredients to success in today's NHL.

Defensively, the Devils have a lot of young talent but don't expect them to be among the league's best. They defend just okay, and one of the reasons it may have looked worse than it really was last season was because of their poor goaltending, finishing fifth-last in 5v5 Sv%, and seventh-last in high-danger Sv% despite ranking in the middle of the pack in expected goals against (19th), and allowed a pretty average rate of high-danger chances against (16th), per naturalstattrick.com. 

Imagine how many more games the Devils would've had a chance to win with just slightly better goaltending and a healthy roster, which they certainly achieved with Markstrom in net. 

Last season, Markstrom was the 25th goalie off the board with a Yahoo ADP of 132.6. He didn't provide the worst value — that was either Joonas Korpisalo (ADP: 93.1) or Vitek Vanecek (ADP: 86.3) — but by no means was Markstrom a steal though he finished 19th in the league in both wins (23) and saves (1,248). 

With a better offense supporting Markstrom, we can at least expect him to get a better chance of earning wins. 

Here's the major rub:  

At 34 years old, Markstrom's play is more likely to decline than improve going forward. The quality of his starts with the Flames (.907 Sv%) pale in comparison to his three seasons as the Canucks' starter (.914 Sv%). He was good, and sometimes brilliant, but he could also be very inconsistent and ultimately the team just didn't live up to expectations. Markstrom also has a lengthy injury history, which ex-Devils Cory Schneider, whose own career was hampered by injuries, pointed out:

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TO7cVqP-lxg[/embed]

Which Markstrom are the Devils getting? It certainly felt like a very cheap return for Markstrom, but his recent numbers, injury history and future outlook suggests the Devils may not have made a significant upgrade (nor they did pay much, anyway). 

Markstrom's also not going to be able to command a big workload with Jake Allen as the 1B option, who performed admirably for the Devils down the stretch. He'll demand playing time, too, and Keefe worked a rotation with the Leafs all season.

I think Markstrom will improve from his 2023-24 numbers, but eventually he'll run into injury trouble or a string of poor performances again, forcing the Devils to turn to Allen again, who will become a hot asset for a hot minute on the fantasy waiver wire again.

I would still be very weary of reaching for Markstrom in fantasy drafts, and I can only see top-10 goalie upside if only because the Devils should improve with such a high-ceiling roster. The likelihood of both Markstrom playing well enough to be adjacent to the Vezina conversation (even for a few months), and for the Devils to capture nearly or all of its potential, seems too optimistic to become reality.  

Top 10 fantasy hockey goalies heading into the 2024-25 season:

(Goalies under contract only, so no Jeremy Swayman)

Igor Shesterkin
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Connor Hellebuyck
Jake Oettinger
Thatcher Demko
Sergei Bobrovsky
Alexandar Georgiev
Stuart Skinner
Ilya Sorokin
Juuse Saros

Does Markstrom crack this list?

Click here to join the new THN Fantasy roundtable to discuss!