Be bold! Going against the grain can be the winning formula in playoff pools.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Why they can pull it off:
Namely, pedigree.
The Lightning had a very slow start to the regular season – who could blame them with Andrei Vasilevskiy sidelined? – but as usual they flipped a switch when it mattered most and since March 1 went 13-5-2, the fourth-best points percentage (.700) in the league.
They entered the season with a healthy amount of skepticism because they had little cap space to add quality depth players, and with back-to-back championships already, it looked like their time was over. But, in a strange turn of events, that the Lightning are this good is actually the bigger surprise, and it's put the league on notice as if to say: "Hey, we're not done yet, fellas."
With arguably the best goalie, the top scorer, the best power play, a top-five penalty kill and plenty of experience and jam, can we really be surprised if the Lightning win?
Why they won't: A first-round matchup against the Panthers is tough, and the Lightning are not good on the road. The Lightning are only a legit contender with a full lineup – you can't escape the cap, unless you're Vegas – and they will be without No. 2 defenseman Mikhail Sergachev for at least part of the opening round.
Vegas Golden Knights
Why they can pull it off:
It feels weird seeing the defending champions as a potential Cinderella, but that's the way randomness in hockey works; one year you can be the best team in the world, and in the next year you could barely make the playoffs.
But look up and down the Knights lineup when they're healthy and you'll quickly realize there are no holes. With Mark Stone potentially playing Game 1, they will have no significant long-term injuries to consider. Add Tomas Hertl into the mix, another big, strong forward that fits Vegas' desire to play a heavy game that's well-suited for the playoffs and you could make the argument that they're even better than last year's version.
(Of course, this is expected when your playoff salary cap is $100 million, but I digress.)
With the ability to hunker down on defense with a very deep and experienced 'D' corps – Noah Hanifin has been a great addition – a fantastic transition game led by top center Jack Eichel and the reigning Conn Smythe winner in clutch scorer Jonathan Marchessault, it's tough to pinpoint exactly how to defeat the Knights.
The Knights are, bar none, the most terrifying low seed in the 2024 playoffs.
Why they won't: Neither Adin Hill nor Logan Thompson can capture the magic from the previous season and their goaltending just isn't as good as it should be despite getting tons of help from their structure and defensive corps.
Vancouver Canucks
Why they can pull it off:
Because nobody thinks they can. There's been talk from (anonymous) sources that the team everyone would like to play against are the Canucks, but you have to be careful what you wish for. The Panthers were an afterthought last season and look where they ended up.
With Thatcher Demko returning just before the end of the season, the Canucks are expected to ice a healthy lineup. Sure, they're not as dominant as they were at the beginning of the season, but this is still a legitimately good team with elite players and a much-improved defensive structure.
Quinn Hughes has been a dominant force from the back end and J.T. Miller is an exciting 100-point player nobody is talking about. Whether it's the no-look, spin-o-rama backhand passes to the opposition or coming down hill on the power play, there's no shortage of ohhs and ahhs and "please, no!" plays from Miller.
The Canucks have elite players at every position and, at the very least, ticks off the boxes of what you'd like to see on an up-and-coming team. Remember, too, that this team nearly caught fire in the bubble playoffs – Miller, Hughes, Demko, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson and others were all on that team – and it could very well happen again.
The Canucks had the third-best goal differential, third-best home record and third-fewest goals against in the West. The top five teams since Jan. 1 at 5-on-5 in controlling shot attempts? Hurricanes, Oilers, Panthers, Stars and Canucks.
Why they won't: Too inexperienced and lacking a top-six winger and a top-four defenseman to truly be competitive, and slumping special teams. They ended the season looking a little out of sync and if Demko is not 100 percent healthy, all hopes are dashed.