Blake Creamer of the Apples and Ginos Fantasy Hockey Podcast reveals his five sleeper picks for the 2024 NHL Playoffs.
If you’re like me, there is no such thing as too much fantasy hockey.
Even though your partner has endured the constant checking of your phone all season, not to mention the random X (formerly known as Twitter) notifications from NHL beat reporters at all hours of the night.
Even your friends question you: “Are you really in 10 fantasy leagues this season? That is way too much!”
My Aunt Fanny!
No. You want more. As you should.
The 2024 NHL Playoffs are just around the corner and that means your fantasy hockey journey will continue. Whether it’s for the prize money or the prestige, the lure of drafting just one more team is too strong to ignore.
That being said, playoff pools are a different beast in terms of strategy. It’s not as simple as going out and drafting the best players available. We need to look at teams that we think will be there at the end from both conferences, and then prioritize drafting and stacking those players onto our squads.
You'll recognize the players at the top, but what about those third-liners and second-pairing defensemen who are available much later in drafts?
These are the "sleepers" – players who will provide surplus value compared to their draft positions. In no particular order, these five beauties are:
(All advanced stats courtesy naturalstattrick.com)
Conor Garland, RW, Canucks
The diminutive winger has been a Swiss army knife for the Canucks all season. He has been deployed up and down the lineup and lately has found himself on the top power play unit.
In the past five games, Garland has proven his new assignment was no mistake, producing four goals. and five points. He was 10th overall in SOG/60 and 17th overall in iSCF/60; both indicators of an offensive play driver.
His ice time has also increased from his season average of 14:32 to just under 19 minutes. Everything is trending upwards at the right time; that spot on the top power play is his to lose, and while he's there, his floor has been raised significantly. Draft him with confidence in the later rounds in your leagues.
Alexis Lafrenière, LW/RW, Rangers
Has the 22-year-old former first overall pick finally arrived? Maybe.
We might need to temper expectations a little bit, but all indications are that Lafrenière should be a consistent fantasy player moving forward. He finally broke through this season with 56 points (and counting) while skating on a line with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck.
The top power play in N.Y. is ironclad and, unfortunately, Lafrenière isn’t part of it – but that's what makes his output this campaign all the more impressive. He scored just six PPP this season, so almost all of his damage was done at even strength. This appears to be a player who has found another gear and taken a step in his development as evidenced by his shot and chance generation metrics.
At 5-on-5, he upped his SOG/60 from 6.42 last season to 8.57 this season. His chance generation has also increased from 6.98 to 10.28. Obviously, playing with Panarin and Trocheck doesn’t hurt, but this is a player who continues to develop his offensive acumen and found some easy chemistry with these two players. Lafrenière can be drafted at value going into the playoffs. Don’t sleep on this sleeper.
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW/RW, Jets
I receive more questions and concerns about Ehlers than pretty much any other player.
The problem is simple: He’s an amazing player under the hood but he doesn’t get the deployment to really pop for fantasy purposes.
Head coach Rick Bowness has something to do with that. It’s like he has an aversion to putting Ehlers in a position to score points, relegating him to the second power play and limited even strength minutes. Despite the frustrating usage, and against all odds, Ehlers is on pace for 60 points.
I trust the underlying numbers when it comes to Ehlers and, in the playoffs, the top players are matched up pretty tightly. Middle-six players tend to be the difference makers and the Jets have a beauty in Ehlers. On the season, he is 32nd overall in SOG/60 and 10th in iCF/60, and he is clearly chuckin’ pucks with the best of them. If he ever had an opportunity to play 18-20 minutes, we are looking at an 80-point player. He will be a difference maker for your playoff fantasy team.
Wyatt Johnston, C/RW, Stars
The career trajectory of Toronto-born Johnston has ascended sharply and shows no signs of coming down. After leading the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires in 2021-22 with 124 points in 68 games, he made his way up to the big league quickly, and he's put together a terrific season in a middle-six role with the Stars.
The Stars will likely finish the regular season as the top seed in the Western Conference and expectations are high. Johnston will be relied on for secondary scoring and it is something he and his linemates, Jamie Benn and Logan Stankoven, have provided in spades this year. Johnston has scored 32 goals and 33 assists in 81 games, and ranks 25th in the league in iSCF/60, all while skating on the second power play and averaging 16:59 TOI/GP.
Expect him to make an impact in these playoffs. He won’t be a sleeper this time next season. Get in on the ground floor.
Viktor Arvidsson, LW/RW, Kings
If Arvidsson didn’t have bad injury luck, he’d have no luck at all.
The oft-injured Swede is finally back and ready to get down to business. This is a player who shows well in all the metrics that matter for fantasy, and he does so season after season. In 16 games played, he is 15th in SOG/60 and 32nd in iCF/60, but what really stands out is his performance on the power play.
With a 44 percent power play share last season – meaning he played 44 percent of all power play minutes the Kings received – he still cooked up 25 power-play points. This year, he is up to a 66 percent of the power play share and that appears to be his spot to lose.
Playoff hockey is so tight and the difference between a win or a loss is often special teams. Arvidsson will get every opportunity to produce on the power play, and if you look at his conversion rate this season, it is a little low at 7.7 percent. He is a career 10 percent shooter so there is some headroom for him to pot a few more goals. See you at the party!
Blake Creamer is a host of the Apples and Ginos Fantasy Hockey Podcast. You can follow him on X (formerly known as Twitter) @BlakeCreamerAG.