So... where do you draft Connor Bedard?!
Outlook
Last season:
26-49-7, 8th Central, 30th overall.
2.46 GF/GP (32nd), 3.65 GA/GP (29th), 16.4 PP% (28th), 76.2 PK% (22nd)
43.90 5v5 CF% (31st), 39.36 5v5 GF% (30th), 42.49 5v5 xGF% (31st)
Let’s get the big question out of the way: Where do you draft Connor Bedard?
In my version 1.0 of my rankings, I have Bedard ranked 63rd, meaning that in a 12-team league, he goes somewhere late in the fourth round or early in the sixth round. Even for a transformational and dynamic talent such as Bedard, it’s going to be really tough to be one of the league’s top scorers on a bad team.
The closest recent comparable is Connor McDavid, who scored at an 87-point pace in his rookie season. But that Oilers team wasn’t nearly as bad as the Blackhawks, and they already had Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom. This past season, 87 points would’ve meant a tie for 20th in the league, and I expect Bedard to come in a little lower than that.
Bedard’s best seasons will be years from now, which is why he is ranked higher at No. 18 in the dynasty rankings and at No. 13 in the dynasty rankings for players under 27 years old. The dynasty rankings project forward three years and Bedard likely doesn’t hit his peak until around 2030. Using a first or second-round pick in re-draft leagues for Bedard is a big reach, considering how much high-end talent there. It’s around pick 50 where Bedard should deserve serious consideration.
In banger leagues, Adam Fantilli might have an edge over Bedard due to his size and physical play, but based on what we saw from Bedard in major junior, he certainly doesn’t shy away from the physical game. McDavid and Sidney Crosby have hovered around a hit per game at various points in their careers, so it’s not implausible for Bedard or Fantilli to do so.
The rest of the roster is not exciting. The only other notables are Hall and prospect Lukas Reichel. They’re the only three Blackhawks ranked inside the top 200, the fewest of any team, and Reichel’s ranking is generous.
Hall is a frustrating fantasy player and always has been. Except for the one MVP-winning season, he’s never been able to reach 30 goals, and most recently with the Bruins had accepted his role as a role player. Hall and McDavid didn’t play together much with the Oilers – 75:58 TOI at 5-on-5, per naturalstattrick.com – but it was promising with a 56.85 CF% and 3.31 expected goals per 60 minutes. For comparison’s sake, McDavid with Zach Hyman was at 55.27 CF% and 3.81 expected goals per 60 minutes. There’s potential, but I still think the ceiling for Hall is around 30-30, which makes him a viable mid-round pick but certainly not a player you reach for.
Projected Lineup
Taylor Hall – Connor Bedard – Taylor Raddysh
Philipp Kurashev – Lukas Reichel – Andreas Athanasiou
Ryan Donato – Jason Dickinson – Tyler Johnson
Nick Foligno – Cole Guttman – Corey Perry
Alex Vlasic – Seth Jones
Jarred Tinordi – Connor Murphy
Filip Roos – Nikita Zaitsev
Petr Mrazek – Arvid Soderblom
PP1
Hall – Bedard – Raddysh – Johnson – Jones
PP2
Kurashev – Reichel – Athanasiou – Donato – Roos
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Connor Bedard, 74 points
Taylor Hall, 58 points
Seth Jones, 52 points
(Point projections for all players are available in The Hockey News NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Get the Fantasy Guide for FREE when you subscribe today.)
Top 300 Ranked Blackhawks (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
63. Connor Bedard, C
145. Taylor Hall, LW
151. Lukas Reichel, C
231. Andreas Athanasiou, C
239. Seth Jones, D
Top 300 Ranked Blackhawks (Banger League) (Full List):
90. Connor Bedard, C
159. Taylor Hall, LW
161. Seth Jones, D
169. Lukas Reichel, C
266. Andreas Athanasiou, C
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
Let’s put aside the Bedard talk for a second, because Lukas Reichel deserves a mention. The 21-year-old was drafted 17th overall in 2020 and in 23 games last season scored 15 points while averaging over 16 minutes per game. Originally drafted as a left winger, Reichel was pencilled in as Bedard’s linemate until Hall was acquired, but Reichel remains in a top-six role as the No. 2 center. With enough playing time, Reichel has a chance to finish top three in scoring on the Blackhawks.
Regression Candidate
Last season’s top goal scorer, Taylor Raddysh, is not ranked, and while the Hawks are very short on right wing, he definitely won’t be the focus of the offense this season. The former second-round pick enjoyed a career season because he got oodles of playing time, but he’s not a high-volume shooter and 17 of his 37 points came on the power play. There’s no reason to draft him in any league, even if he has the top-line assignment next to Bedard.
Goalies
There’s no sugar coating anything; the Blackhawks might have the worst tandem in the league. Even when healthy, Petr Mrazek is a liability most nights. His save percentage has been sub-.900 for two straight seasons and his GAA north of 3.00. Arvid Soderblom didn’t fare much better last season.
Even with added goal support thanks to Bedard, the Blackhawks are not expected to win many games. The ceiling for Mrazek and Soderblom is low – it’d be a miracle if either of them won 20 games – and neither are worth rostering or streaming in any format.
