The Avalanche are contenders with elite fantasy options. But can they stay healthy? And who steps up in the meantime?
Outlook
Last season:
51-24-7, 1st Central, 7th overall. Eliminated Round 1 by Seattle, 4-3.
3.34 GF/GP (11th), 2.72 GA/GP (9th), 24.5 PP% (6th), 79.0 PK% (17th)
52.19 5v5 CF% (8th), 54.55 5v5 GF% (9th), 51.55 5v5 xGF% (14th)
As long as everyone stays healthy, the Avalanche will be one of the league’s elite teams. Their title defense last season fell short, but the injury bug bit them hard. Captain Gabriel Landeskog missed the entire season and he’ll miss this season as well, and it’s really difficult to replace him.
The Avs have three elite, top-20 fantasy options in Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar. The top of the lineup is very strong, including Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen and Devon Toews, all of whom rank in the top 200. I think Ryan Johansen – also ranked in the top 200 – was an excellent pickup and provides fantastic value in the middle rounds for 40-assist, 60-point potential, and Ross Colton should set new career highs with a much bigger role than he had in Tampa Bay. Bowen Byram (more below) is a great sleeper pick, and again, he needs to stay healthy.
The problem arises when one of the Avs’ top-six or top-four players gets hurt. Past history has shown that this is pretty likely. Normally, that means a bottom-six player gets moved up, along with a boost in fantasy value, but the depth is pretty thin. The projected lineup below includes Jean-Luc Foudy and Ben Meyers in the bottom six, and it’s debatable if they’ll even make the lineup on opening night. Fredrik Olofsson, acquired from the Stars, and prospect Oskar Olausson will also be battling for a spot, as will training camp invitees Joel Kiviranta and Peter Holland. I suspect the Avs will sign at least one more depth player before the season starts when they sort out their LTIR situation.
The one player who may really surprise is Jonathan Drouin, MacKinnon’s running mate in the QMJHL. Lehkonen played plenty with Nichushkin last season, and Drouin could move up to MacKinnon’s line. That will provide a huge boost to Drouin’s fantasy value, who snuck in as the last player in the top 300 due to this particular circumstance. Drouin and MacKinnon last played together in 2016 at the World Cup of Hockey, and their divergent career paths might affect their chemistry.
UPDATE 9/14/23:
As I had expected, the Avs bolstered their forwards corps by signing veteran Tomas Tatar to a one-year deal. Despite a productive 20-goal, 48-point season, Tatar found a new home just a little more than a week before the Avs' training camp begins on Sept. 21. He's a smart, playmaking winger who can play on the top three lines and provides some insurance to a lineup that had been very thin.
On a high-scoring team, Tatar's production should be similar to what he accomplished with the Devils last season. It makes him a fringe fantasy asset, but if he can find his way onto MacKinnon's line, his scoring rate will surely go up, just as it did for Lehkonen and Nichushkin.
In the updated projected lineup below, I have replaced Foudy on the third line and Drouin on PP2 with Tatar.
Projected Lineup
Artturi Lehkonen – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
Jonathan Drouin – Ryan Johansen – Valeri Nichushkin
Miles Wood – Ross Colton – Tomas Tatar
Andrew Cogliano – Ben Meyers – Logan O’Connor
Devon Toews – Cale Makar
Samuel Girard – Bowen Byram
Jack Johnson – Josh Manson
Alexandar Georgiev – Pavel Francouz
PP1
Lehnkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen – Nichushkin – Makar
PP2
Tatar – Johansen – Colton – Toews – Byram
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Nathan MacKinnon, 116 points
Mikko Rantanen, 102 points
Cale Makar, 85 points
(Point projections for all players are available in The Hockey News NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24. Get the Fantasy Guide for FREE when you subscribe today.)
Top 300 Ranked Avalanche (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
2. Nathan MacKinnon, C
10. Mikko Rantanen, RW
17. Cale Makar, D
29. Alexandar Georgiev, G
120. Valeri Nichushkin, LW
179. Artturi Lehkonen, LW
183. Devon Toews, D
188. Ryan Johansen, C
296. Ross Colton, C
298. Bowen Byram, D
300. Jonathan Drouin, LW
Top 300 Ranked Avalanche (Banger League) (Full List):
2. Nathan MacKinnon, C
8. Mikko Rantanen, RW
15. Cale Makar, D
54. Alexandar Georgiev, G
125. Devon Toews, D
137. Valeri Nichushin, LW
165. Artturi Lehkonen, LW
200. Ryan Johansen, C
236. Bowen Byram, D
245. Ross Colton, C
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
The Avs are a veteran team in win-now mode. They know their Stanley Cup window probably won’t last for very long – it never does – and we just saw them deal Alex Newhook to the Habs because he wasn’t ready for the role they wanted him to play. Newhook would’ve been a strong candidate for a breakout, and he was my pick in the Habs preview.
That leaves Bowen Byram, the talented 22-year-old roving defenseman who’s had very poor luck with injuries and across three seasons has appeared in just 91 games. Those appearances, however, have been mighty impressive, scoring 15 goals and 43 points, and does not include 12 assists in 27 playoff games. The Avs have arguably the league’s best defense, and a healthy Byram can also take some pressure off Makar. With a full season, 40 to 50 points is a fair expectation for Byram, who may accomplish this even without playing PP1. Byram’s ranked 298th out of 300 in the fantasy rankings, but he can easily move up into the top 200 if he can stay healthy and increase his shot volume.
Regression Candidate
I say this cautiously, but Mikko Rantanen feels like he could regress a little bit. His play at even strength was outstanding with 42 goals, trailing only David Pastrnak (43), and it’s just the fifth time in the cap era a player has scored at least 40 goals at even strength. Maybe this is the new norm in a much more wide-open league, but the rarity of the occurrence suggests that it’s not easily repeatable.
A healthy roster also means the offense won’t only have to run through Rantanen, which it did at times last season. A 50-goal season from Rantanen is surely plausible, but an improvement from last season into 60-goal territory is unlikely. Nonetheless, Rantanen ranks 10th in my fantasy rankings.
Goalies
For just $5.4 million, the Avs have one of the best value tandems in the league. It was a little surprising to see Alexandar Georgiev get handed the reins so quickly after the Avs acquired him, considering Pavel Francouz looked pretty good. Regardless, Georgiev proved he has the chops with 62 games and 40 wins, and he enters the fantasy season as one of the league’s top goalies with the benefit of playing behind a really good defense. He’s ranked sixth in my fantasy rankings with a chance to move into the top five if he can repeat what he did last season.
