Behind Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, the Panthers aren't a one-hit wonder. In fact, they offer one of the impressive group of forwards in fantasy.
Behind Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, the Panthers aren't a one-hit wonder. In fact, they offer one of the impressive group of forwards in fantasy.
Outlook
Last season:
42-32-8, 4th Atlantic, 17th overall. Eliminated in Stanley Cup Finals by Vegas, 4-1.
3.51 GF/GP (6th), 3.32 GA/GP (21st), 22.8 PP% (10th), 76.0 PK% (23rd)
54.33 5v5 CF% (3rd), 54.57 5v5 GF% (8th), 53.73 5v5 xGF% (5th)
The story of Cinderella teams doesn’t tend to end well. The Panthers snuck into the playoffs as the second wild card, beating the Penguins and Sabres by one point en route to an improbable berth in the Stanley Cup final. From the ’82 Canucks to the ’06 Oilers, history is replete with teams that burned too bright, too quickly. The Panthers know from their own experience, too, in 1996.
The question is: Are the Panthers actually good enough to do it again? The answer should be, unequivocally, yes. Kudos to the teams that punched above their own weight, but Paul Maurice’s Panthers is replete with star players those teams didn’t have, starting with Matthew Tkachuk, a fantasy gem and the only player not named Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl to score at least 200 points over the past two seasons.
Tack on Aleksander Barkov, who scored at a 94-point pace last season, Carter Verhaeghe, who should come close to scoring 40 goals, and the two Sam’s – Reinhart and Bennett – and you have a pretty solid roster. Even the depth moves were good, signing Evan Rodrigues, an underrated 20-goal threat and high-volume shooter who’s too good for a bottom-six role and has the ability to play higher in the lineup if needed. The Panthers have eight (!) forwards ranked in the fantasy rankings.
Where the Panthers will experience a regression is on the back end with Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour both injured and unlikely to return before November. They were both utilized on the top power play unit – a rare occurrence these days – but when Montour can play as a roving defenseman, he essentially becomes the fourth forward.
The projected lineup below assumes Ekblad and Montour are healthy. If not, expect the physical Niko Mikkola (106 blocks, 151 hits last season), former NoDak standout Matt Kiersted (20 NHL GP last season) and veteran Mike Reilly (339 career NHL GP) to fill in the holes for the time being. Mikkola, in particular, has some value in banger league rankings who can easily go 100-100 in blocks and hits.
Note Ekblad and Montour’s absence gives a huge fantasy boost to Gustav Forsling, who will likely end up as PP1 QB. Ranked 269th in the fantasy rankings, Forsling has a chance to finish inside the top 150 after tying for 30th in scoring among defensemen with 41 points last season. Depending on the timing of Ekblad and Montour’s return, Forsling may end up leading all Panthers defensemen in scoring. Forsling’s an excellent value pick on a team full of elite options.
Projected Lineup
Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Sam Reinhart
Evan Rodrigues – Sam Bennett – Kevin Stenlund
Ryan Lomberg – Steven Lorentz – Nick Cousins
Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad
Dmitry Kulikov – Brandon Montour
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Josh Mahura
Sergei Bobrovsky – Spencer Knight
PP1
Tkachuk – Barkov – Reinhart – Montour – Ekblad
PP2
Verhaeghe – Bennett – Rodrigues – Lundell – Forsling
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Matthew Tkachuk, 109 points
Aleksander Barkov, 81 points
Sam Reinhart, 73 points
(The NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 is FREE if you subscribe today! Click the image below.)
Top 300 Ranked Panthers (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
8. Matthew Tkachuk, LW
31. Aleksander Barkov, C
60. Sam Reinhart, C
67. Carter Verhaeghe, C
112. Sergei Bobrovsky, G
140. Brandon Montour, D
168. Anton Lundell, C
170. Sam Bennett, C
209. Evan Rodrigues, C
217. Aaron Ekblad, D
269. Gustav Forsling, D
276. Eetu Luostarinen, C
Top 300 Ranked Panthers (Banger League) (Full List):
5. Matthew Tkachuk, LW
29. Aleksander Barkov, C
67. Sam Reinhart, C
82. Carter Verhaeghe, C
96. Brandon Montour, D
104. Sam Bennett, C
178. Aaron Ekblad, D
185. Sergei Bobrovsky, G
187. Anton Lundell, C
240. Evan Rodrigues, C
243. Gustav Forsling, D
274. Eetu Luostarinen, C
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
The Panthers lineup is pretty established so it’s hard to pick a younger player to break out, but how about a re-breakout season from Anton Lundell? Ranked 168th in the fantasy rankings, that sounds quite generous for a player who scored just 12 goals and 33 points last season, but I’m factoring in a bounce-back season following an impressive rookie season when he received votes for the Selke.
On a scoring line with Reinhart, Lundell’s shooting percentage will certainly revert back to the mean after a surprisingly low 7.9 percent last season. Like a mini-Barkov, Lundell plays in all situations and he’s very dependable at both ends of the ice. He may not have Barkov’s offensive upside, but Lundell's a 20-goal, 50-point threat in a good season.
Regression Candidate
Ekblad and Montour are the obvious candidates, but that’s due to injury and not production. And with no clear candidate for a regression, it's one reason why the Panthers are expected to be a playoff team once again.
No player’s production stands out as particularly egregious; though Verhaeghe may be a popular pick, having scored 42 goals out of seemingly nowhere, note his 275 shots ranked 16th in the league. He’s always been a pretty good finisher, and adding extreme high-volume shooting should help him sustain his goal-scoring pace.
Goalies
This is where the Panthers might run into trouble. Spencer Knight is expected to be ready to start the season, and while we were bullish on his prospects of unseating Sergei Bobrovsky for the starting job just a season ago, I'm only cautiously optimistic now. That means Bob is back on the case, facing a workload with 50-something starts for yet another season.
Bobrovsky has won 360 games – 23rd all-time and third among active goalies behind Marc-André Fleury (544) and Jonathan Quick (375) – but no longer the Vezina-winning goalie he was with the Jackets. In four seasons with the Panthers, his .905 SP ranks 26th out of 37 goalies with at least 50 wins. He’s a good fantasy goalie – ranked 15th among goalies in my rankings – because he piles up the wins, but he’s in that mushy middle and well outside the top tier due to his liability in other categories.
There are no real signs that Bobrovsky can turn it around. He can be good in spurts –he's generally pretty awful in October and picks it up a month later – and you want workhorses to be reliable every night. (Otherwise, what's the point?) We always hope Bobrovsky returns to his elite form season after season, but no goalie has been as routinely disappointing as him.
Fantasy managers who draft Bobrovsky must consider having a second goalie who’s at least in the same tier. I’m saving you a headache, because Bobrovsky will inevitably get benched at some point, leaving you to scramble to find a replacement.