The defending Stanley Cup champions do it by committee. How does that affect their players' fantasy value?
Outlook
Last season:
51-22-9, 1st Pacific, 5th overall. Stanley Cup Champion. Defeated Florida, 4-1.
3.26 GF/GP (14th), 2.74 GA/GP (11th), 20.3 PP% (18th), 77.4 PK% (19th)
48.15 5v5 CF% (22nd), 53.78 5v5 GF% (11th), 50.87 5v5 xGF% (16th)
The Golden Knights were an inaugural team just six seasons ago and conducted an expansion draft that was widely panned. They weren’t even analytical darlings this season, and we had plenty of evidence to suggest the eventual Cup winner usually finished at the top of the table in possession metrics and expected goals. They were not supposed to win it all, and so quickly and so soon, too, in a division that many thought was the league’s poorest.
Yet, here we are.
Their nobody-believes-in-us mindset worked to perfection, and, to this day, the Knights are at their best when they embrace their ‘Misfits’ mentality and try to prove everyone wrong. Bruce Cassidy embodied some of that spirit, who was fired on the heels of a 51-win season.
Sure, they boast big names, and they’ve gone after plenty of them, too, but I do not find it a coincidence that their goals record remains William Karlsson’s outlier 43-goal season, or that nobody has scored more than 78 points in a season.
The Knights are good, but they’ve always been better than the sum of their parts. They’re less appealing in fantasy because none of their players project to have elite-level value. Jack Eichel has the pedigree and he’s a legit No. 1 pivot, but he’s yet to show he’s more than just a point-per-game player. Eichel is their only player ranked inside the Top 100 in version 1.0 of my fantasy rankings.
The salary cap has forced the Knights to jettison quality players – even if some of the cap problems were self-perpetuated – and they’ve become increasingly reliant on very good role players. Chandler Stephenson has emerged as one of the league’s best utility players who can put up 60 points even though he doesn’t score a lot of goals or shoot the puck. Ivan Barbashev is pencilled in on the top line but he has a middle-six skillset. The Knights might have the best fourth line in hockey. A shame that none of these things really offer much in terms of fantasy value.
Eichel will be the only name that should be taken off Vegas’ roster in the early rounds, followed by Mark Stone – if managers who don’t mind that he’s unlikely to ever play all 82 games – then some combination of Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo, depending on the categories.
Projected Lineup
Ivan Barbashev – Jack Eichel – Jonathan Marchessault
Brett Howden – Chandler Stephenson – Mark Stone
Paul Cotter – William Karlsson – Michael Amadio
William Carrier – Nicolas Roy – Keegan Kolesar
Alec Martinez – Alex Pietrangelo
Brayden McNabb – Shea Theodore
Nic Hague – Zach Whitecloud
Logan Thompson – Adin Hill
PP1
Marchessault – Eichel – Stone – Stephenson - Theodore
PP2
Barbashev – Roy – Amadio – Karlsson – Pietrangelo
Player Rankings
The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Jack Eichel, 76 points
Chandler Stephenson, 67 points
Jonathan Marchessault, 66 points
(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)
Top 300 Ranked Golden Knights (Full List, including individual player write-ups):
39. Jack Eichel, C
100. Jonathan Marchessault, RW
114. Mark Stone, RW
128. Chandler Stephenson, C
152. Logan Thompson, G
163. Shea Theodore, D
164. Alex Pietrangelo, D
172. Ivan Barbashev, C
194. Adin Hill, G
197. William Karlsson, C
Top 300 Ranked Golden Knights (Banger League) (Full List):
40. Jack Eichel, C
111. Jonathan Marchessault, RW
112. Alex Pietrangelo, D
118. Mark Stone, RW
124. Chandler Stephenson, C
166. Shea Theodore, D
182. Ivan Barbashev, C
214. William Karlsson, C
244. Logan Thompson, G
290. Adin Hill, G
All positions courtesy Yahoo Fantasy.
Breakout Star
There’s no excitement surrounding Brett Howden and Michael Amadio, both relatively high draft picks now in their mid- to late-20’s who score at bottom-six rates. Paul Cotter is somewhat intriguing with 13 goals in 55 games last season, but he’s never been a scorer at any level, though if he ever gets to 20 goals, he could have good banger league value with 200-hit potential. A win-now team that has traded nearly every player they’ve drafted in the first round doesn’t have much notable young talent coming up.
That leaves Ivan Barbashev, who understandably regressed from a 26-goal season to just 16 goals last season, but on a top-line role with the Knights, scored at a 57-point pace following a trade from the Blues. He fits the Knights’ all-round mold; he’s got decent size and decent hands without a real discernible weakness.
Barbashev has a chance to maintain a 20-goal, 50-point pace if he manages to play alongside Eichel. I wouldn’t worry too much about Vegas’ fancy stats; they’re the type of team that doesn’t mind getting outshot as long as they can keep shots to the outside.
Regression Candidate
Skeptics will likely point out Chandler Stephenson, but for two straight seasons he’s been a model of consistency. As long as he gets 19 minutes per game and PP1, he’ll continue to produce 60 points on minimal shooting volume with lots of faceoff wins.
William Carrier’s career high 16 goals is the stat that I’d point to as having the biggest potential for a regression. He’s a physical fourth-line winger who shot a career-high 13.6 percent last season, but he’s barely fantasy-relevant, so picking him isn’t exactly a hot take, which leaves us with…
Goalies
Adin Hill was incredible in the playoffs, but does he sustain it? His career so far doesn’t scream No. 1 starting material, and an injury to Logan Thompson precipitated Hill’s rise. Hill was rewarded handsomely with a two-year extension worth nearly $10 million, but this has all the makings of a timeshare; Hill, as the slightly older, well-travelled veteran finally finding a home, and Thompson as the slightly younger, feel-good story who’s finally been given a real chance.
There is no way Hill sustains his .932 playoff SP into the 2023-24 season, and he’s still yet to play more than 27 games in a regular season. I have Hill ranked slightly lower than Thompson, and at the draft, remember you’re taking a 1B goalie, not the starting goalie on a championship team like an Andrei Vasilevskiy or even a Darcy Kuemper or Jordan Binnington.
The other consideration is Robin Lehner, who’s on-ice and off-ice issues kept him on LTIR for all of the previous season. There’s been no indication that his return is imminent, and re-signing Hill was a further hint, not to mention Lehner’s return would (again) complicate their cap situation. It’s Thompson-Hill going forward.