2023-24 Fantasy Hockey Preview: Winnipeg Jets

The Jets fly into the unknown with only a few remnants of the core that led them to the conference final in 2018. Who's left?

Last season:
46-33-3, 4th Central, 14th overall. Eliminated Round 1 by Vegas, 4-1.
3.00 GF/GP (21st), 2.73 GA/GP (10th), 19.3 PP% (23rd), 82.4 PK% (7th)
51.57 5v5 CF% (11th), 51.80 5v5 GF% (15th), 51.62 5v5 xGF% (13th)

Since the inception of Jets 2.0, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s approach has always been slow and methodical. He doesn’t take big risks and he only makes moves when every other option has been exhausted. He’s swapped out players here and there, the most notable swapping Patrik Laine for Pierre-Luc Dubois, but the Jets’ core has withered away.

Dustin Byfuglien retired and Jacob Trouba signed with the Rangers. Blake Wheeler gave up the captaincy and was eventually bought out. Dubois was shipped to the Kings. Paul Maurice resigned after eight-and-half seasons.

The haul from the Kings – Alex Iafallo, Gabriel Vilardi and Rasmus Kupari – signaled a huge pivot, but is it enough for Cheveldayoff to stay the course? With Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck’s contracts expiring this coming summer, the Jets are flying without a compass.

Their uncertain trajectory means the Jets are full of fantasy pitfalls. Asides from Connor, Scheifele and Hellebuyck, it’s difficult to know what to expect.

Nikolaj Ehlers is a trap pick because Rick Bowness doesn’t play him, and we can point out all the fancy stats until we’re red in the face, but the fact of the matter is, Ehlers doesn’t get enough ice time to produce points.

Iafallo will turn 30 and he’s a role player without a ton of offensive upside, and Vilardi, who was brought in to replace some of Dubois’ offense – who will he play with? There is no Kevin Fiala on the Jets roster to feed off of, but a bunch of players who really have to dig hard for their goals: Nino Niederreiter, Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry and Vladislav Namestnikov. Does Vilardi succeed in this scenario?

Kyle Connor – Mark Scheifele – Nino Niederreiter
Alex Iafallo – Gabriel Vilardi – Nikolaj Ehlers
Morgan Barron – Adam Lowry – Mason Appleton
Vladislav Namestnikov – Rasmus Kupari – Cole Perfetti

Josh Morrissey – Dylan DeMelo
Brenden Dillon – Neal Pionk
Dylan Samberg – Nate Schmidt

Connor Hellebuyck – Laurent Brossoit

PP1
Connor – Scheifele – Ehlers – Niederreiter – Morrissey
PP2
Iafallo – Vilardi – Perfetti – Namestnikov – Pionk

The Hockey News Fantasy Guide Top 3 Point Projections:
Kyle Connor, 82 points
Mark Scheifele, 75 points
Josh Morrissey, 60 points

(Purchase your copy of the NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24 to see all player projections)

Top 300 Ranked Jets (Full List, including write-ups):
21. Connor Hellebuyck, G
22. Kyle Connor, LW
68. Mark Scheifele, C
83. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW
135. Josh Morrissey, D
174. Gabriel Vilardi, C
227. Cole Perfetti, C
248. Nino Niederreiter, RW
274. Alex Iafallo, LW

Top 300 Ranked Jets (Banger League) (Full List):
24. Kyle Connor, LW
36. Connor Hellebuyck, G
73. Mark Scheifele, C
92. Josh Morrissey, D
104. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW
205. Gabriel Vilardi, C
209. Nino Niederreiter, RW
211. Neal Pionk, D
275. Adam Lowry, C
286. Alex Iafallo, LW

Certainly, the most obvious candidate is Cole Perfetti, selected 10th overall in 2020 and the Jets’ highest draft pick since 2016 (Patrik Laine, 2nd overall). Limited to 51 games last season due to injury, Perfetti finished 11th in Calder Trophy voting with 8 goals and 22 assists. He started hot with 14 points in 21 games to start the season, faded in December but picked it up in January before being placed on injured reserve on Feb. 21.

Perfetti’s advanced stats indicate he’s an above-average scorer who has the potential to carry a scoring line by himself at 5-on-5. His 8.9 shooting percentage last season is a disservice to his revered shooting ability, and he scored seven of his eight goals at even strength last season.

Perfetti enters the season on the final year of his entry-level contract with a chance to eclipse the 50-point mark this season. He’s projected to play top-six minutes and on the second power play unit, and will likely offer dual-position eligibility at both C and RW.

Josh Morrissey had such a fantastic season last year, it feels like the only direction left to go is down. He rode a career-high 9.3 shooting percentage to set career highs in goals (16) and points (76), and took advantage of a significant spike in power-play ice time (3:42 PP TOI/GP from 2:33 PP TOI/GP) to set a career high in power-play assists (26).

The numbers are so out of line with Morrissey’s production in past seasons – an average of 27.6 points over six seasons – that it’s literally screaming “outlier!” off the page. Note in Morrissey’s final 17 games of the season, he went 10 games without a point. He should not be one of the top 10 defensemen off the board in your draft.

The Jets brought back Laurent Brossoit as their backup after he spent the past two seasons with the Knights, but make no mistake, Connor Hellebuyck is going to be their workhorse. Over the past three seasons, no goalie has started more games or faced more shots than Hellebuyck. He remains an elite fantasy goalie and easily ranks in the top-five in any format.