Credit © Geoff Burke-Imagn ImagesFISH CAMP, CA — The National Hockey League sent its players to the Winter Olympics for the first time since 2014, and the risk seemed varied. For teams and individual players, it presents an opportunity to represent your country and play at a very high level against elite competition. On the flip side, it also means a nice, cut block, two-week-plus break from the grind of the regular season. For the Los Angeles Kings and Kevin Fiala, it spiraled into a worst-case scenario situation.
An injury that put things into perspective.
A hit from Tom Wilson, and the season is officially over for Fiala. That is woeful timing for a team that just made its most significant in-season trade since its championship glory days. The Kings' third-leading scorer (second before the Artemi Panarin deal) hasn't been ruled out for the playoffs, but is shut down for the critical stretch run to qualify for the playoffs. Ironically, the NHL's first involvement in the Olympics since 2014 coincides with the last playoff round the Kings won.
See, since 2014, the organization has won 9 playoff games across 5 appearances. That's right around winning less than two games per playoff appearance. With a Stanley Cup-winning core nearing a single thread in the pending retirement of Anze Kopitar, the team's actual cup contention is trending towards delusion and refinement of previous rhetoric.
Panarin is a big deal, and I do say that with gusto. The loss of Fiala doesn't necessarily bring the Kings back to square one, as Panarin certainly ranks among the top 5-10 wingers in the league, but it does feel like three steps forward, two steps back.
Panarin, even with Fiala healthy in the lineup, wasn't going to elevate this marginal team to the heights of contender legitimacy. The Kings, even before the trade in the aftermath of the Phillip Danault departure, had been involved in numerous discussions about acquiring a center to bolster this lineup, despite a backend that hampers this team. Their defensive core slows their transition game and strains the entire forward group through increased defensive labor due to a lack of overall outlet ability/footspeed in their own zone.
The team is stuck with that; they have to eat this situation on the backend, as fixing it would likely require serious retention and assets going back, which they are already thinning out. That being said, a center is still needed.
That raises questions about their heir apparent, but Quinton Byfield is not out of the equation just yet, as I've covered before. He's undoubtedly under the spotlight now with a legitimate star winger that should be attached to his flank. It's now or never for the young forward, who is getting a better winger than Kopitar ever had, albeit in decline. There is the struggling Byfield, and then there's a massive drop-off in the ability to drive play and handle top six matchups in the stark decline of Kopitar.
Samuel Helenius and Alex Turcotte aren't elevating this team to contention status. The reinforcements from Ontario are more detrimental than helpful. It has to be external.
The hockey world has been brimming with rumors of a potential trade that involves Vancouver's eleven-million-dollar centerman, Elias Pettersson. There's also a growing desire for Robert Thomas from St. Louis. Other names that have been tossed around are centers like Charlie Coyle and Nazem Kadri. The Kings are likely to look at all available options, even though most NHL teams are competitive this season, save for a few souring teams. There's no 2024 White Sox team in the NHL.
Re: Pettersson and Kadri—No movement clauses and modified trade lists come into play, so hoping for a Panarin-type situation asks that lightning strike twice. Panarin held all the cards in his deal, essentially handcuffing Chris Drury to a maddening effect for Ranger fans. Furthermore, I have a hard time putting stock in tagging the Kings to Pettersson solely because of his wife's long-time connection in Los Angeles. I also have a heck of a time thinking a player of this caliber gets swapped in a divisional trade.
That goes for Kadri, too, as the Flames won't be so inclined to do in-division deals, and Kadri has a modified no-movement clause. The aging veteran doesn't exactly thread the needle when considering the seasons in the wake of Kopitar's retirement (Kadri's contract runs through 2028-29). In one season, the team trades away Greentree, then gives up a first-round pick and more for a 35-year-old center with term? That doesn't bode well for the club.
Interestingly, Thomas has a no-trade clause and is locked up with the Blues until 2029-30, with an AAV of 8.125 million. That's gem-worthy on price; he's 26, a righty with 1C capacity. Thomas does sit in that rarified category with Pettersson, but would be extremely pricey if the player were to waive his clause. Should Thomas waive, and unless he demands a trade in the near future, St. Louis can wait out bidders with aplomb, picking apart what would likely be 15+ suitors. Doug Armstrong and Alexander Steen can deal with bids into next season if need be.
Unless there is some wizardry from Ken Holland, I don't see him dipping into the honey pot twice with New York to chase Vincent Trocheck. As mentioned, the Rangers got worked by Panarin's NMC. Trocheck has a 12-team no-trade clause.
There are those clauses again, and the three highest upside names at center (Pettersson, Thomas, Trocheck) all have some clause. Kadri has a clause too.
On the lower end, there's Coyle, who plays for a competitive Columbus team in a similar situation to the Kings (four points out of the Eastern Conference wildcard playoff spot). These situational trades between aspiring playoff teams typically mean assets leaving matches, with the return, if only marginally better, from each team's perspective. Columbus, like the Kings, is looking to upgrade now.
That leaves a more realistic vision for the Kings' trade strategy, but much less on the table regarding the higher-tiered ceiling in the return.
Untested goalie prospects, draft picks, and marginal middle-six pivot prospects to bargain with? Their legitimate blue-chip prospect pantry took a practical knockout blow in the deal to acquire Panarin without shedding a roster player: Liam Greentree. That asset pool has gone from bleak to barren. Solely relying on their plethora of picks might get a conversation with St. Louis or Vancouver going, or entice a fall-from-grace team such as New Jersey or Winnipeg, but it doesn't close the deal.
There is also the absurdity that Byfield would have to go the other way. Swapping him out for another center, even a much better one like Thomas or Pettersson (on the rare, off chance it happens), doesn't fix the center depth weakness. That feeds into a retool, not a rebuild.
There just aren't proper assets to get something substantial in return for the Kings in the wake of the Panarin deal. There aren't a plethora of clear-cut sellers as suitors in the league right now, forcing a perilous waiting game towards the trade deadline. It makes me believe the team needs to retain Warren Foegele, despite a back-down-to-Earth-level of production this season.
Ears are certainly ringing if Foegele, a first-round pick and more, is the mock trade out there for the player who could actually redefine the team's current trajectory down the middle. Those extremely limited players (Pettersson or Thomas) who can actually put the Kings' categorization up a level or two are leaning towards the 'pipe dream'/'fleece' trade categorization. This isn't an Xbox game.
Holland has stated he has no interest in a rebuild. This suggests the Kings are putting all their chips in, especially given Kopitar's final season.
The situation, however, is getting derailed and exposed by an ill-timed injury. Even before that, Holland was working with peanuts to make lemonade, as the former GM, Rob Blake, hamstrung the team across many areas. For Holland, credit where credit is due: the Panarin move was a stroke of beauty, given the assets sent over for the player, largely influenced by Panarin himself. But has Holland played his full hand?
An overpay for a center not expected, or one expected, is assumed to be looming. However, many doors must open for the right moves to be unlocked, leading to better short and long-term outcomes for the club. Landing a player who has to waive some form of trade clause twice in one season seems like a pretense for a not-so-well-thought-out plan. The reality is that the season was always going to be a stretch, and the organization might have just pulled a muscle.
Waiting and hoping for a game-breaking 1C or high-end 2C to be available in free agency is foolhardy roster planning, given their last five years of franchise navigation. It directly ties into the notion of rebuilding this team. That long-term rebuild Holland is publicly deferring away from the organization will resurface in the offseason in a bad way should the Kings falter, yet again.