A desperate surge and improbable losses are the Islanders' slim playoff hopes. Can they defy the odds?
The New York Islanders entered Saturday with a roughly 35-40% chance to make the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. New York sat in 10th place in the Eastern Conference.
They trailed the Philadelphia Flyers by just one point for third in the Metropolitan Division and the Ottawa Senators by three points for the final wild-card spot.
24 hours later, the Islanders sit 12th in the conference, trail Philadelphia by three points, and the Senators have an "x" next to their name, signifying they're clinched for the playoffs.
The rough odds to make the playoffs sits below 5%.
Officially, the season's not over. But, it'd take a lot for the Islanders to break into the playoffs now.
First, the Islanders would have to sweep the Montreal Canadiens and the Carolina Hurricanes to gain all four necessary points.
Then, the Philadelphia Flyers would need to lose both of their games to the Canadiens and Hurricanes, with at least one loss coming in regulation, to pass them.
But wait, there's more.
The Islanders would need the Columbus Blue Jackets to lose to the Boston Bruins on Sunday night, OR the Washington Capitals to lose to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday afternoon.
If both Columbus and Washington win on Sunday, the Islanders are eliminated from playoff contention no matter what happens.
This is because the Blue Jackets hold 92 points to the Islanders' 91, while the Capitals also have 91, but have clinched the regular-season tiebreaker over the Islanders.
Columbus and Washington square off on Tuesday night, and if both sides win on Sunday to move to 94 and 93 points respectively, the Islanders are mathematically eliminated, no matter what happens with Philadelphia or themselves.
One of the two is guaranteed two additional points, thus eliminating the Islanders.
So, to make the playoffs, the exact scenario is one of two paths:
1. The Islanders sweep the Canadiens and Hurricanes, one of which in regulation to clinch the tiebreaker against Columbus.
2. The Philadelphia Flyers gain no more than 1 total point from their remaining two games (Monday v CAR, Tuesday v MTL)
3. The Blue Jackets win against the Boston Bruins on Sunday, while the Capitals must lose to the Pittsburgh Penguins in any fashion. Then, the Capitals must defeat the Blue Jackets in any fashion.
OR
3. The Capitals win against the Penguins in any fashion on Sunday, while the Blue Jackets lose in any fashion to the Bruins. Then, the Blue Jackets must defeat the Capitals in any fashion on Tuesday night.
The second clear path begins the same way.
1. The Islanders go 1-0-1 against the Canadiens and Hurricanes, picking up exactly three points in the standings.
2. The Philadelphia Flyers must gain zero total points (0-2-0) from their remaining two games (Monday v CAR, Tuesday v MTL).
3. The Blue Jackets AND Capitals lose on Sunday, with at least one of the two teams losing in regulation. Then, whoever loses in regulation on Sunday MUST win on Tuesday against the other.
To make that clearer, let's say Columbus loses to Boston on Sunday in regulation, while the Capitals lose in overtime to Pittsburgh. Then, Columbus must defeat the Capitals on Tuesday in any fashion.
OR
If the Capitals lose in regulation on Sunday, while the Blue Jackets lose in overtime/shootout, then the Capitals must beat Columbus in regulation Tuesday night for the Islanders to get in
OR
If the Capitals lose in regulation on Sunday while the Blue Jackets defeat the Boston Bruins in any fashion, then the Capitals must beat Columbus in regulation on Tuesday night for the Islanders to get in.
These are the only remaining paths for the Islanders into the playoffs. Mathematically, it's not impossible. But, as the odds will tell you, it's exceedingly unlikely.