The New York Islanders woke up Saturday morning sitting one point behind the Philadelphia Flyers for third place in the Metropolitan Division and three points behind the Ottawa Senators for the final wild card spot.
Those are the only two realistic paths remaining for the Islanders into the postseason.
The math alone tells you catching Philadelphia is significantly easier and is preferable to the task of catching Ottawa.
If the Islanders win in regulation on Saturday against the Senators, they'll move one point back of Ottawa.
Still, the Detroit Red Wings could then leapfrog the Islanders again with a regulation win, based on the regulation wins tiebreaker.
The Senators finish the year with games against the New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs.
It's not the most inspiring run of opponents to hope to beat Ottawa to even give the Islanders a chance to pass the Senators.
There's a reason the odds give Ottawa around a 92% chance to make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the odds have the Islanders and Flyers within a few ticks of one another. Not only is this thanks to the Islanders being just one point back, but the Islanders also clinched the tiebreaker over the Flyers.
In the event of a tie in point, the Islanders finish above Philly, no matter what happens.
The Flyers also have a tougher schedule than Ottawa.
The Flyers go on the road Saturday to face the Winnipeg Jets in a game with huge playoff ramifications for both sides.
If Philly wins that, then they finish the year with games against the Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens.
Ironically, that's also how the Islanders finish the year. The Islanders might need to win every game remaining, a very tall task for them and new head coach Peter DeBoer.
The odds of Philadelphia winning out are rather low, and compared to that of Ottawa, the window of opportunity for the Islanders to claim third place in the Metropolitan Division is significantly larger.
With just three games to go, it's almost the only path ahead. All the Islanders can do is win and drive up the pressure on the Flyers.