Senators–Hurricanes Series Preview: Ready for the Storm?

Taylor Hall was right.

“That's a playoff team,” Hall clairvoyantly stated, speaking after the Carolina Hurricanes' 6-3 loss to the Ottawa Senators on April 5th.

“I don't know if they're going to make the playoffs, but that's a team that plays playoff hockey. So, it's a good test for what we're going to see. They have that desperation, and we're going to have to match that in a couple of weeks.”

Not only are the Ottawa Senators a playoff team, but they are also the Hurricanes’ first round playoff opponent.

The Hurricanes represent a formidable challenge.

Finishing atop the Eastern Conference standings with 113 points this season, the Hurricanes have developed into a model of consistency over the years. They have reached the postseason for an eighth consecutive season, and in seven of them, the Hurricanes have advanced past the first round. The last time the Hurricanes failed to advance past the first round was 2020. They have also reached the Eastern Conference final on three occasions: 2019, 2023, and 2025.

Their roster has always been littered with excellent two-way players who play with speed, and it is reflected in the team’s analytics.

The Carolina Hurricanes were one of the most dominant five-on-five teams in the league. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Hurricanes generated:

- 59.87 percent of the shots (CF%, 1st);
- 57.66 percent of the shots on goal (SF%, 1st);
- 53.49 percent of the total goals (GF%, 8th);
- and 55.89 percent of the expected goals (xGF%, 1st)

NHL Edge data indicates that the Hurricanes spend the least time in the defensive zone (35.5%) and the most time in the offensive zone (45.5%). No team in the league has a shot on goal differential per game greater than Carolina.

To advance, the Senators will have to navigate a narrow path, but they have played very well against the Hurricanes this season, which works in their favour.

Although the Senators only won one of their three matchups against the Hurricanes, they held their own against the league’s best five-on-five team. In fact, the Senators generated:

- 50.76 percent of the shots (CF%);
- 55.12 percent of the shots on goal (SF%);
- and 61.60 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).

If not for the Senators’ goaltenders stopping only 83 percent of the shots on goal in the series, the Senators would have had a chance to win the games.

Head coach Travis Green downplayed the small sample size of success, noting that the organization has developed confidence throughout the season, irrespective of the opponent.

“We've had three good games against them,” Green acknowledged. “We played well in a lot of games this year. I don't worry about confidence within our group. We've learned a lot over the last two years about ourselves, about our game, and how we need to play to have success, regardless of who we're playing.

“They're going to have a lot of confidence, too. They've been there a lot. They know they're a good team. They've had a fantastic year. Both teams are going to have belief in themselves.”

For some of the players, at least, that confidence from

“We're really confident,” Jordan Spence emphatically stated. “Obviously, we're not going into the series thinking that we're going to lose at all. It's the complete opposite. If we play our game, we're really confident with our game and how we can play. We can beat any team in the league.

“For us, we just have to come prepared, but not be too confident in how we have to play. It's a good matchup. We played against them three times, and we lost twice. There were some slip-ups that could have cost us an overtime win in one game. But it just comes to small plays in the playoffs, especially. So we're really looking forward to starting game one.”

The series may ultimately come down to which team forechecks the best, creating havoc and disrupting breakouts and opportunities to transition the puck into the offensive zone - a place where both teams like to spend a lot of time.

That style of game suits the Senators. No team in the league had more players who recorded 10-plus goals and 100-plus hits this season. The Senators had six: Drake Batherson; Tim Stutzle; Brady Tkachuk; Michael Amadio; Fabian Zetterlund; and Dylan Cozens.

An aggressive and fast Carolina forecheck will be one of the biggest challenges the Senators will have to face, but in speaking to their defencemen, they are up for it.

“It's like that every game that you play now because every team is fast nowadays,” Thomas Chabot explained. “There are not many teams out there that you know you're gonna have a lot of time and space.

“Especially in that building in Carolina, they play the rim game a lot, and that's something that we got to be ready for. It's simplifying your game, moving the puck fast and but know that it works. It is our style of play. That's what we've been doing all year. We play as a fast team. We don't slow down the game. We like to (push the pace) and actually make it fast. It's going to be a lot of fun to get it going.”

Jake Sanderson echoed Chabot’s comments.

“Just being aware of it, we know they're a fast team,” Sanderson added. “We know they have a lot of offensive weapons. For us, it means ‘D-men’ being connected and communicating.”

“We need to play fast too and help each other a lot,” Nik Matinpalo explained. “I think they play a similar style that we played too, so that helps a lot too.”

Playing fast is something the third pairing will have to do. Since taking a puck to his face during the Senators’ game against the Buffalo Sabres on April 2nd and missing the remaining seven games of the regular season, all eyes have been on whether defenceman Tyler Kleven would be available for the postseason.

Kleven participated in his first full practice with the team yesterday, but he brandished a yellow, non-contact jersey while wearing a jaw protector on his helmet.

In Kleven’s absence Dennis Gilbert took line rushes with Nik Matinpalo on the team’s third pairing at practice.

“Obviously, it's a high intensity, high pressure situation (to come into),” Gilbert stated while describing his nerves ahead of what could be his first career playoff game. “But, this is what everybody dreams of doing. That's kind of been my mindset throughout my career is be a good pro, be ready and make sure you're putting the work in so you're ready to jump in whenever.”

Lassi Thomson had been playing regularly with Matinpalo in the last few games of the regular season, so it was slightly surprising to see Gilbert in that spot. Thomson is a more efficient skater and puck-mover than Gilbert, but the latter is a natural left-shot. The coaching staff may prefer that handedness on the third pairing, but it does leave them susceptible to getting trapped in their own end if they cannot deal with Carolina’s forecheck.

Head coach Travis Green did not disclose whether Kleven would be ready for game one, but he expressed a belief this week that Kleven would be available to play at some point during the series. Without Kleven, however, the third pairing represents the Senators’ most obvious weakness.

It speaks to how far the team’s penalty kill and goaltending have improved over the past several months or weeks.

Since January 24th when Green announced that assistant head coach Mike Yeo would be taking over the penalty killing responsibilities from Nolan Baumgartner, the Senators’ penalty kill has been the league’s fifth-most efficient operating at 83.1 percent. Couple that with the league’s eighth-best power play (24.7 percent) over 82 games and the Senators’ special teams have done their job.

Linus Ullmark’s play has also markedly improved since taking a leave of absence through the month of January. In the 20 games following his leave, Ullmark has turned in a 13-4-3 record, a 2.49 goals against average, two shutouts and a .901 save percentage. The Swedish goaltender went from having one of the lowest goals saved above expected (GSAx) in the league, to being a net positive (3.48 GSAx) by the end of the season.

Ullmark has historically struggled in the postseason, compiling a 5-10 record with a 2.85 goals against average and an .885 save percentage in 16 appearances. It is a relatively small sample size of games across four seasons, however.

If the Senators can continue to take away the middle of the ice and suppress the volume of shots given up in high-danger areas, it will help take a lot of the pressure off Ullmark.

Conversely, the Hurricanes’ goaltending situation has become muddied in recent weeks.

Brandon Bussi’s torrid start to the season began to diminish by the end of January. In his last 16 appearances, he had a 12-3-1 record, but the peripherals were ugly. His 2.93 goals against average and .870 save percentage were pedestrian, which doesn’t reflect well on Frederik Andersen. The Danish goaltender finished the season with a 16-14-5 record, a 3.05 goals against average, and an .874 save percentage in 35 appearances.

If the Senators can manage to get inside and capitalize on their early chances, simulataneously wrecking the confidence of the Hurricanes’ goaltenders and putting seeds of doubt in the minds of their teammates, it could create the massive psychological swing that the Senators will need.

For a maturing and confident group, that early success is what they didn’t experience last year in Toronto and it cost them the series.

It remains to be seen what version of the Senators show up this year, but if this is a very confident group that bears stylistic similarities to the Florida Panthers group that knocked the Hurricanes out of the postseason in two of the last three years.

They just have to go out there and execute.

Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News

This article was first published at The Hockey News Ottawa. Check out more great Sens features from The Hockey News at the links below:  

The Farm System Everyone Doubted Helped Save The Senators Season
Rick Bowness Clarifies That Only Some Of His Players "Don't Care"
Rod Brind'Amour Describes Senators As 'A Huge Challenge' In Round One
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Brady Tkachuk Describes Brief Vision Loss During Game As 'Weird And Scary'