A pair of trades and a veteran re-signing have led to an excess of forwards on the Sens' roster, leaving Claude Giroux’s future in Ottawa now very much in doubt.
The Ottawa Senators’ forward ranks are starting to get full, and the ramifications may be unpopular.
After the Senators acquired William Eklund and Andre Burakovsky through two separate trades last week, the organization announced last night that they had re-signed Nick Cousins to a two-year contract carrying an average annual value of $1.875 million.
The stockpiling of bodies and a limited number of spots raised questions about whether there would be room for Claude Giroux.
Now there might not be.
According to TSN's Pierre LeBrun, Giroux will be testing unrestricted free agency today.
Negotiations went down to the wire last year amid fears that Giroux could walk, but he inked a one-year, $2.0 million deal on June 29th. This year, those same fears may be realized.
For an organization that had a tight dressing room and a front office well-regarded for its measured, diligent nature, the last few weeks have been a blow.
Protected by a full no-movement clause that unilaterally allowed him to control the process, captain Brady Tkachuk orchestrated a trade to his brother’s Florida Panthers. Given the circumstances and the lack of leverage, the Senators made out quite well, netting a ninth overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, the 25th pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, a protected 2029 first-round pick and a 2027 second-round pick.
Armed with cap space and draft capital, the possibilities for what the Senators could do were exciting. And ultimately, it led to general manager Steve Staios betting on the possibility that Swedish left winger William Eklund could be a top-six forward with the ability to pop.
That intrigue, coupled with the animosity towards Tkachuk, felt like a galvanizing moment for organizational identity, but subsequent moves have not only shaken confidence in this roster's talent but also in management.
It is a weird turn of events considering the Senators’ season.
Head coach Travis Green helped turn this group into one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Senators finished top-five in important underlying five-on-five metrics, and once the team started getting saves, they began to string wins together.
An ineffective power play and several key injuries to their blue line decimated their chances against the eventual Stanley Cup-winning Carolina Hurricanes, but this was a very strong Senators team. With the right additions and better goaltending during the regular season, there was every reason to believe the team would be right back in the hunt in 2026-27.
The Tkachuk trade request forced a pivot, but the trades involving goaltender Samuel Ersson and Andre Burakovsky left fans questioning the process. And now, if the popular Claude Giroux leaves, it will only raise the temperature in the nation’s capital.
Without a move or two, it is hard to see where there is room for Giroux in the lineup.
Eklund-Stützle-Batherson
Greig-Cozens-Burakovsky
Foegele-Pinto-Amadio
Cousins-Halliday-Zetterlund
Admittedly, there has to be confusion over what the rush to acquire Burakovsky was. Given that a player recorded only one goal and four points in his final 37 games and the opportunity cost of acquiring him, it is fair to assume his market was not robust.
Perhaps his market would have grown, leaving the Senators to compete with other organizations, had Burokovsky been bought out by the end of the NHL’s first buyout period on June 30th. This was the reason the Senators felt comfortable taking on Burakovsky’s full cap hit of $5.5 million with a real salary of $3.75 million.
They wanted the guarantee that they could bring him into the fold, even if it feels like a sad reflection of the organization’s confidence, given the low relative cost of replacing Burakovsky on the ice.
I feel for Burakovsky in a sense, but he will largely bear the scrutiny if the organization fails to re-sign Giroux.
There is still time to work out a contract with Giroux, but inevitably this will be painted as a Burakovsky-versus-Giroux decision if the organization cannot.
Giroux still has a lot of utility as a player.
Of the players who took 50 or more faceoffs this past season, no player had a higher percentage of won draws than Giroux (63.1%). According to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) modelling, only Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson created more value than Giroux on the Senators last season.
Most of that value is driven by Giroux’s two-way play; he competes hard and has maintained his defensive aptitude. His five-on-five production rates and shot rates were better than they were the previous season when the Senators extended him, but his goal and point totals declined for a third consecutive season.
Giroux tallied 14 goals and 49 points, but four of his goals were empty-netters, and only one was scored on the power play. He has always been a pass-first player, but he is simply not the threat to score as he once was.
A function of that may be his speed.
NHL Edge data shows that Giroux has taken a small step back from last year’s metrics, so maybe this is simply a case of a player not getting the time and space they used to.
Burakovsky is unquestionably a more one-dimensional offensive player, but the organization obviously believes in his speed and goal-scoring upside.
A reduced offensive role for Giroux makes a ton of sense. His line, while playing alongside Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio, had a ton of success last season. In 285 minutes together, the Senators generated 54.78 percent of the shots (CF%), 58.27 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 65.54 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 58.21 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
Returning him to that role would be ideal, but after trading a second-round pick for Warren Foegele at the trade deadline, Foegele should be getting more minutes and responsibilities this season.
Despite a strong blue line and a collection of talented young centres, the Senators’ congestion of middle- and bottom-six wingers is redundant. The organization is obviously following the Carolina Hurricanes’ model, building four quality lines that can contribute offensively, but the Senators have used valuable draft capital and cap space over the last two years, adding players in Foegele and Zetterlund who have predominantly slotted onto the team’s fourth line.
And now, it may cost them a popular and local veteran leader in Giroux.
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News
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