What Matthews’ Contract Means for Guentzel and Penguins
What will the Pittsburgh Penguin's high-scoring forward demand in his new contract?
While the Pittsburgh Penguins made lots of roster changes this offseason, the team enters the 2023-24 season with one looming player personnel question: what will the team do with Jake Guentzel? Entering the final season of a team friendly, five-year, $30 million deal, the team's highest goal scorer of the past five seasons is due a healthy raise in the near future.
Simultaneously, the contract market has just been shattered with the new extension signed by the Toronto Maple Leafs and Auston Matthews. The-25 year-old is set to become the highest paid player in the league, making $13.4 million annually on his next contract. With the salaries continue to rise and players commanding higher contract values, what the can the Penguins and Guentzel expect in a new deal?
The Stats
Guentzel has consistently been a point producer since his arrival in Pittsburgh. Over the past five seasons alone, he has appeared in 331 games. He's registered 159 goals, 174 assists, and 333 points over that span. Overall, he has two 40-goal seasons, three 30-goal, and six 20-goal seasons in his career. A few months away from his 29th birthday, Guentzel has amassed 453 career games, and is just three tallies shy of 200 career goals. He's a player that is right in his prime, with at least five more years of consistent production ahead of him.
The Similarities
Over the past five seasons, Guentzel is perhaps the most underrated scorer in the league. Of all NHL forwards, 14th in goals and 26th in points scored, despite missing more than 50 games over that span. He's an elite offensive player, and has performed at a first-rate level despite little to no recognition or accolades.
Guentzel has more goals scored (159 to 155) than Matthew Tkachuk since the 2018-2019 season. Tkachuk, about to turn 26, is one season removed from signing an eight-year deal that pays him $9.5 million annually. It was considered a good deal for both sides at the time, but has already evolved into a great one for the Florida Panthers after an MVP level season from their top forward.
Guentzel has also scored more than notable power forward and coveted trade target this past season, Timo Meier. After the New Jersey Devils paid an arm and leg for his service at the deadline, they inked him to an eight-year deal worth $8.8 million annually this offseason. Meier has just one 40-goal season and has 36 fewer goals than Guentzel despite playing in 21 more games.
The Contract
Looking around the league, it's clear that Guentzel is worth way more than the $6 million he currently makes. While he won't and shouldn't touch Matthews' salary, Guentzel could easily justify asking for a $10 million annually. He's still young enough to warrant a long-term deal and he's proven how valuable he is when he's in the lineup. There may be some injury risk to his game, but he's undoubtedly a first-line player and top 10 winger in the game.
What will realistically prohibit Guentzel from making that amount of money is not the Penguins' salary cap situation, but rather the lower cap hits of the team's stars. Erik Karlsson is the team's current highest player, with a cap hit of $10 million (thanks to the San Jose Sharks retaining $1.25 million). After that, Sidney Crosby leads all forwards with an $8.7 million cap hit.
Guentzel's contributions deserve to at least $8 million per year from the Penguins. It remains unclear where the two sides are in terms of an extension, but the recent signing of Matthews is only helping Guentzel's situation. Will the Penguins draw a hard line when negotiating Guentzel's next contract or will they adjust to the league's higher salary demands and make him the team's highest paid forward in 2024?
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