Will the Pittsburgh Penguins newest addition see a drop in productivity this season?

It's that time of year. Predictions and projections are running rampant as NHL teams begin their training camps ahead of the 2023-24 season, and newly acquired Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson is a heavy topic of discussion.

The Hockey News conducted a preseason NHL poll ahead of the 2023-24 campaign in which 34 THN staff shared their votes. The Penguins' blue liner took home the "player due for a setback" category, receiving eight of the 34 available votes. 

The next highest vote-getter was Boston Bruins goaltender Linus Ullmark with three.

Statistically, that makes sense. Karlsson scored 101 points (25G - 76A) for the San Jose Sharks last season. He became the first defenseman since Brian Leetch (1991) to eclipse 100 points in one season. The odds are he won't be able to repeat a record performance that went untouched for over 30 years.

Karlsson took home his third Norris Trophy for his efforts last season, an award that has not seen a repeat winner since Nicklas Lidström won it three straight years between 2006 and 2008. 

In a league that boasts tremendous talent from the blue line, it's fair to assume that Karlsson is on the outside looking in at the Norris Trophy picture to begin the season. Not to mention, the only Penguins defender to win the award was Randy Carlyle in 1981.

However, Karlsson joins a revitalized Penguins organization looking to recapture the success of the past. And while he likely won't recreate his historic season, he figures to play a pivotal role in helping the Penguins get back to the postseason.

It shouldn't take long for the 33-year-old blue liner to assimilate into the Penguins' aggressive defensive system. The Penguins value and rely on offensive production from defensemen, and Karlsson will be no exception. 

While the 15-year NHL veteran does need to adjust to new defense partners and a new power play, it would not be surprising to see him finish between 70-80 points again this season and challenge Sidney Crosby for the team lead in points.

Even if he suffers a setback this season, Erik Karlsson will be one of the top point-scoring defensemen in the league once again.

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