Under The Hood: Shot Generation vs. Finishing Woes for The Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews-Kirill Marchenko Duo

The looks have been there. The goals have not followed them in mass quantities, but they still have something.

Through three games, Auston Matthews has one goal on 10 shots. Kirill Marchenko has one goal, a power-play marker against Ottawa, on nine shots. Jim Hiller was asked Monday whether the gap between the shot creation and the finishing is a real problem or three games of noise.

“I think that’s just the way it goes sometimes,” the Toronto Maple Leafs head coach said. “Those are really good looks, and some of them crossbars and posts and stuff on top of that. Those are just really good looks. Those will start to go if you create those types of Grade-A chances. They’re going to go.”

The underlying count supports the patience, at least in a sample this small. Through the first two games, five-on-five numbers had Marchenko leading the Leafs in scoring-chance share at 84.2 percent, second in high-danger chance share at 84.2 percent and second in expected-goals share at 70.4 percent. Matthews sat second in Corsi at 61.4 percent and second in shot share at 72 percent, according to NaturalStatTrick.com.

Saturday offered the cleanest picture of the split. Matthews tied the Senators 33 seconds into the second on a tip of a Morgan Rielly point shot. Marchenko put Toronto ahead at 7:06 of the second, a backhand on the power play off a Darren Raddysh pass. The Leafs hit both posts in the first period, Teddy Blueger and Jack Roslovic, and Matthews rang another one late with the net empty. Ottawa won 3-2. Hiller liked the defensive work outside the third period of that game. The third, he said, was the one he did not like.

The fix he wants is not a new combination. It is support. 

“It’s just a little closer together in the O-zone,” he said. “We’re all winning our battles, having three guys close and bringing some pucks to the dirty areas a little quicker.” 

Monday’s practice was built around that: pucks to the net, traffic, a more direct game. “I think the guys liked it in the end. This is the first time we’ve done that one.”

William Nylander, whose own line is trying to live below the goal line instead of playing one-and-done, described the same problem in different words. 

“We’re trying to establish more of an offensive game down below the goal line and not just be one and done. I think that’s what has happened a few times.” He said the goals against have included some fluky ones through screens, and he still wants the group tight.

Hiller was asked, again, about patience. Previous regimes, he was reminded, would have shuffled by now. 

“I hope it just lets them know that, listen, the record right now is not exactly where we want it to be,” he said. “I think we could have won all three games if things would have went a different way. So let’s just work on our process.” 

He said the early emphasis was without the puck. Monday pushed offense back to the front. 

“You can only be patient for so long, but we’ll stick with it for now.”

Nylander has heard that before, from the other side. His first year they had eight pre-season games as a team, something that gave more time to find chemistry. 

The math Hiller is betting on is simpler than that. Grade-A chances, repeated, stop hitting iron.

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