When projecting how everything would look one month into the 2025-26 NHL season, most people didn't have the Pittsburgh Penguins as one of the league's top teams.
Yet, here we are on Nov. 2, and the Penguins sit pretty at third in the Eastern Conference standings and fifth in the league standings at 8-3-2 with 18 points. The only team in the NHL with more points than the Penguins are the Colorado Avalanche with 19.
Pittsburgh's early-season success has been a result of many factors, several of which may or may not be sustainable. Yes, the Penguins are getting generally lucky and sport the sixth-highest PDO - or personal discouragement outcomes - at five-on-five in the league (101.86), but their process also seems to be much-improved from last season.
Yes, they have their stinker games, such as the one against the New York Rangers on Oct. 11 or against the Philadelphia Flyers on Oct. 28, when they still managed a point. Yes, they're getting goaltending that's a little too good to be true. But, even in their 5-2 loss to one of the league's best in the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday, they answered a poor start in the first 10 minutes of the game with a relatively good performance through the rest of it.
They aren't bleeding odd-man rushes like they have in previous seasons. Their penalty kill is 15 of its last 16 and has seen some of the NHL's best power plays against Winnipeg and the Minnesota Wild. And they're locking down in third periods, where they have yet to blow a lead and have outscored the opposition, 20-9.
Nov 1, 2025; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Winnipeg Jets center Mark Scheifele (55) celebrates a goal against the Winnipeg Jets in the third period at Canada Life Centre. Mandatory Credit: James Carey Lauder-Imagn ImagesAll in all, there's a little bit of everything. And, even if this team regresses to the mean at some point, there is still a decent chance that their hot start could end up making a world of difference for them at season's end - especially in a less-than-inspiring Metropolitan Division.
Right now, the Penguins are tied with the New Jersey Devils atop the Metro with 18 points, but the Devils have the edge with one more win. Below them, though?
There are three teams with 14 points - the Carolina Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Rangers - and three teams with 13 points - the Flyers, New York Islanders, and Washington Capitals.
Right now, everything is close. Those six teams, so far, aren't really pulling ahead and have their own issues to worry about:
- Carolina needs help on the back end. They are relying on a rookie in Alexander Nikishin - a very good rookie, in all fairness - to fill the left side on their top pairing alongside Sean Walker, who probably wouldn't be a top-pair defenseman on most contenders. Beyond that, they have guys in Jalen Chatfield, Joel Nystrom, Mike Reilly, and Charles-Alexis Legault who are fine, but they definitely need more top-four talent, especially on the right side. And they really need a bus driver for their power play, which is dead last in the league.
- Columbus - like Pittsburgh - is probably getting unsustainable levels of goaltending, and they could also use more talent as far as the center depth on their roster. While their forward group is pretty formidable in general - albeit very young - they need an upgrade down the middle in their top-six, as Sean Monahan isn't the ideal first-line center on a contender, and Adam Fantilli isn't quite ready for that role, either. And they can't seem to stop too many teams on the penalty kill and don't score much on the power play, so their special teams are bringing them down.
- The Rangers lack scoring depth - and depth in a general sense - and rely too much on their goaltending to win them hockey games. They are 25th in the league in goals for with 31 in 13 games, and if you look at their bottom-six and bottom-four, this isn't particularly surprising. And it gets even worse when you see that no one in their top-six has more than eight points (hello, J.T. Miller), even if star defenseman Adam Fox has 11 and third-liner Taylor Raddysh leads the team in goals with five.
- The Flyers - even if they have a little bit of talent sprinkled in on the forward front and some veteran reliability on the back end - do not have the goaltending to sustain themselves. The recently injured Samuel Ersson has an .876 save percentage, 28-year-old Dan Vladar is currently sporting a save percentage (.924) far above his career number (.897) and has never had this kind of workload, and the youngster Aleksei Kolosov - although promising in his first two appearances - does not have a track record of sustained success in professional hockey.
- The Islanders are not only old, they're also generally unspectacular at every position. Their goaltending is 25th in the league in save percentage, and that starts with Ilya Sorokin, who has had a disastrous start that includes an .877 save percentage and 3.40 goals-against average in eight games. To be fair, their top-nine is producing at a pretty even distribution, and that group is definitely the strongest on the team. Bo Horvat has has a good start, too. But the only "spectacular" Isles player has been rookie sensation Matthew Schaefer, who is carrying this team's defensive corps on his back with 10 points and a league-leading (among defensemen) five goals.
- The Capitals are a bit of a conundrum, and they should gain some ground as the season goes on. Goaltender Logan Thompson has been spectacular so far, as his .935 save percentage (eight games played) is fourth in the league among qualified netminders - but Charlie Lindgren has been the opposite, as he's sporting an .880 save percentage through four starts. They're struggling on both special teams units, and - beyond their top line and second-line center Dylan Strome - they're not getting much production from their forward unit. It's fair to wonder whether the Capitals were playing a bit above what they actually are last season while riding the high of the Gr8 Chase.
Then, there is the Penguins. Of course, the Penguins aren't without their issues as well, which is what makes this an interesting thought exercise.
- They are riding a combined save percentage of .918, which is third in the NHL - and those numbers probably aren't sustainable through an entire season for both Tristan Jarry (.923 save percentage, career save percentage at .910) or the inexperienced Arturs Silovs (.913, .890). More than likely, their goaltending is due for a regression at some point, even if they have some formidable help waiting in the wings in the AHL with Sergei Murashov and Filip Larsson.
- Their team shooting percentage is also third in the league at 13.3, which - given the fact that Justin Brazeau (27.3 percent) and Anthony Mantha (25 percent) are both well above career averages, and Sidney Crosby is shooting at 33.3 percent (unsustainable, no matter how great he is) - is also due for a regression.
- The left side of their blue line has been outplaying expectations. Parker Wotherspoon looks like a perfect defensive partner for Erik Karlsson on the top pairing, but he's never played more than 55 games in an NHL season and has never played top-pairing minutes. Ryan Shea has been spectacular in his age 28 season - already tying his career-high in goals (2) and surpassing his career high in points (7) - but it's fair to wonder if his level of play is sustainable. And the Penguins do not seem to have a current solution for the bottom-pairing on their left side.
- Crosby, 38, is scoring at a 57-goal, 101-point pace, and Evgeni Malkin, 39, is scoring at a 114-point pace. Crosby's might be somewhat sustainable, at least in the points department. Malkin's - as great as he is - not so much.
But, there are some counterpoints to consider:
- Five of the current top-six teams in team save percentage are in the Metro, with Winnipeg at the top of the league (Rangers, Penguins, Blue Jackets, Capitals, and Flyers to follow). It's fair to say that all of those teams - except, perhaps, the Rangers, who have arguably the best goaltender on the planet - are due for a goaltending regression.
- New Jersey is fourth in the league in shooting percentage right behind the Penguins at 13.1 percent - suggesting they could also be due for a regression there. In addition, the Rangers, Flyers, and Capitals are bottom-six in goals-for - which goes beyond strictly shooting percentage, especially in Philadelphia's case, as they are middle-of-the-pack (16th) in shooting percentage. In addition, the Penguins are second in the league in expected goals for (31.48) and 10th in expected goals per 60 (2.84), indicating that they're generating a lot offensively.
- There is a good possibility that the Penguins' left side is outplaying expectations - and that Karlsson is playing miles better this season - simply because the new coaching staff is getting more out of the Penguins' defensive corps. Several defensemen, including Shea and Karlsson, have sung high praise for the work that head coach Dan Muse and defensive coach Mike Stothers have done for the unit - and for the new system the team is deploying, which plays to their strengths and emphasizes forward coverage.
- It's never wise to bet against two surefire Hall-of-Fame centers who are desperate to bring this team back to contention - especially in what could be Malkin's final NHL season.
Last season, the final playoff spot in the East - and in the Metro - had 91 points. The Penguins have 69 games remaining to amass 73 more points and tie that 91-point mark, which amounts to 37 more wins. And 37 wins in 69 games probably isn't even required because it doesn't account for overtime and shootout loss points.
All in all, there are reasons suggesting that what the Penguins are doing may not quite be sustainable. But - given the shortcomings of other teams in their own division - they may not have to sustain this high a level anyway to end up a playoff team when the 2025-26 regular season concludes in April.
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