There were surely a lot of items on NHL bingo cards heading into the 2025-26 season.
And the start the Pittsburgh Penguins are enjoying probably wasn't one of them.
Through 11 games, the Penguins are 7-2-2 and are tied with the New Jersey Devils, Montreal Canadiens, Utah Mammoth, and Colorado Avalanche atop the league standings with 16 points. They have exceeded most expectations up to this point, even if there is still a lot of season left for things to go the other way.
There are plenty of reasons to think that what they're doing is not sustainable. Among them:
- The Penguins' five-on-five PDO - their shooting percentage plus save percentage - is at 103.31, according to Moneypuck. That's the second-highest in the league behind the Chicago Blackhawks, and a PDO over 100 generally means that a team is getting lucky and should regress to the mean at some point.
- Their goaltending, while solid so far this season, has also been above expectation. Tristan Jarry's save percentage of .916 is exceeding his career save percentage of .910, and he has a history of shaky second halves. Arturs Silovs's save percentage is at .919, but he lacks much NHL experience, and it's hard to say whether or not he can sustain his level of play.
- Players like Justin Brazeau and Anthony Mantha are riding shooting percentages at 28.6 and 23.8 percent, respectively. Even Sidney Crosby is at 36.4 percent, and his career shooting percentage is 14.6. Those numbers - and their goal production - likely isn't sustainable, and the Penguins are tied for second in the league in goals-for with 40.
Surging Penguins Are The 'Wheeze Kids' Of The NHL
With "legends of the game" resurging on offense and young players exceeding expectations, these Pittsburgh Penguins have had their best October in years.
Those are just a few of the reasons why what this team is doing may not last very long - or, at least, last long enough for them to make the playoffs. But that doesn't mean there aren't reasons for optimism, either.
In fact, there are multiple reasons to suggest that the Penguins might be for real, even if they can't sustain this high a level of play.
1. The Erik Karlsson effect
When the Penguins acquired Erik Karlsson during the summer of 2023 - right off the back of their first playoff miss in 17 years - the future Hall-of-Fame defenseman was coming off an historic 25-goal, 101-point, Norris Trophy-winning campaign with the San Jose Sharks.
For the first two seasons of his Penguins' tenure, Karlsson - even if he wasn't terrible by any stretch - certainly underperformed expectations. This season is a different story.
In 11 games so far, he has nine points and is a plus-8, which is a drastic change from his minus-24 last season. He's also playing far less high-risk - especially in his own zone and in the neutral zone - and has a defensive partner in Parker Wotherspoon who seems to be a perfect complement.
Karlsson playing at this high a level - as well as Wotherspoon - changes the entire complexion of the Penguins' defensive corps, which was assumed to be a major weakness this season. The Penguins tend to ride Karlsson's highs and lows as a team.
There is still some room for improvement on the back end, but Karlsson playing at the level he has makes things much easier for the rest of the unit and, quite frankly, changes everything.
2. Teams that start out this well typically make the playoffs
Pensburgh's Adam Gretz wrote a piece prior to the Penguins' shootout loss to Philadelphia Tuesday that highlighted some interesting statistics from salary cap-era teams that got off to 7-2-1 start.
Of the 30 teams that put up that record through 10 games, 24 made the playoffs, and only one team had a losing record at the end of the season.
Of course, anything can happen. But the Metropolitan Division - as well as the Eastern Conference as a whole - has kind of been a bit of a mess over the last few seasons. There are a ton of teams in the mushy middle, and it might just open the door for a team like the Penguins to simply play better than some of the other mediocre competition.
The West is a different animal and has been extremely top-heavy in terms of its playoff teams. The East pretty much figures to be in a blender this season, especially with the Florida Panthers so injury-depleted.
So, why not the Penguins?
3. Evgeni Malkin has a better pool of linemates this season
Is 39-year-old Evgeni Malkin nearly pacing the NHL in scoring sustainable throughout the entire 2025-26 season?
No, probably not.
But that doesn't mean he can't be quite a bit better and more productive than he was last season. And it starts with the guys around him.
Sure, we mentioned how Brazeau and Mantha - Malkin's linemates so far this season - are unlikely to sustain their high shooting percentages, even if Pittsburgh's "mutant line" of 6-foot-5-plus humans have found a high degree of chemistry. But, even if that's true, one big difference from last season is that Malkin will have a better pool of linemates to play with regardless.
Penguins Earn Exciting 6-3 Win On Milestone Night For Crosby
It wasn't always pretty, and it wasn't always clean.
Last season, he was playing with the likes of Philip Tomasino, Michael Bunting, and Anthony Beauvillier. With no disrespect to those players, all of Brazeau, Mantha, Ville Koivunen, Ben Kindel, Rutger McGroarty, Filip Hallander, and Tommy Novak are upgrades. And those are the guys who he would, most likely, be seeing the ice with, especially once Rickard Rakell returns from injury and rejoins the top line with Crosby and Bryan Rust.
Pittsburgh is much deeper at the forward position this season. And Malkin should, theoretically, reap the benefits of that.
4. The energy from the youth movement and coaching change is a real thing
Sometimes, a team getting over the hump and out of a malaise is as simple as a change behind the bench. Penguins fans - better than anyone - should know this, as it led them to Stanley Cup championships twice (2009 and 2016) in the cap era.
It's clear to see that there is a newfound and revitalized energy with first-year head coach Dan Muse behind the bench - and a lot of it has to do with Muse's focus on development and his inclination to play the kids.
The Penguins are already much different from last season in that they're not afraid to part with or bench underperforming veterans. Struggling defenseman Ryan Graves was waived out of training camp and is playing in the AHL despite his large contract. Defensemen Matt Dumba and Connor Clifton have received very sparse playing time in the earlygoing in favor of 19-year-old rookie Harrison Brunicke and recently recalled 21-year-old prospect Owen Pickering.
'I Believe In Communication And Us All Working Together': Mutual Trust A Defining Aspect Of 2025-26 Penguins
When speaking with <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/pittsburgh-penguins">Pittsburgh Penguins</a>' defenseman Ryan Shea last week, he discussed how some tweaks to the Penguins' system have allowed him to unlock the more offensive side of this game.
On the forward front, 18-year-old Ben Kindel has thoroughly impressed and - having nine games under his belt - may force the Penguins' hand Thursday to keep him and activate his entry-level contract. Koivunen was sent back to the AHL after struggling in his first three games to start the NHL season, and he's back after registering 11 points in 6 AHL games. Hallander is currently replacing Rakell on the first line and being rewarded for his good play.
As mentioned last week, there is a mutual trust between the players and coaching staff that has bred positivity and confidence in this locker room. And if Muse and company continue to communicate and reward players for things that they've earned, that's only going to keep building.
5. They're better structurally... and they're also banking points even when they shouldn't be
Perhaps the most drastic difference between this season and last is the manner in which the Penguins have been playing - especially when they play with a lead.
For starters, there is far less risk in their game. They aren't bleeding odd-man rushes anymore, sans a few bad games against the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday and the New York Rangers in a 6-1 loss on Oct. 11. They're mostly limiting high-danger chances and are playing a more stifling brand of hockey than we've seen from them in recent year. And there is also a high degree of communication and harmony between the forward unit and defensive unit in terms of pinching and positioning so they're not left vulnerable.
They've largely shut the door and taken over in third periods, where they're outscoring the opposition, 16-8. They have yet to blow a third-period lead. They're, simply put, very hard to play against when they're playing ahead, and that couples well with their quick-strike offense.
Late Push, Goaltending Help Penguins Earn Point In Shootout Loss
After the first 40 minutes of play on Tuesday against the <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/philadelphia-flyers">Philadelphia Flyers</a>, the <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/pittsburgh-penguins">Pittsburgh Penguins</a> had no business trailing only 2-1 heading into the final frame.
But here's the biggest thing of all.
Even when they shouldn't be banking points, they are banking points.
How many times in the last handful of seasons have the Penguins walked away from a game feeling as though they deserved a better outcome? Lost games they should have won? Surrendered points because of blown leads and game mismanagement and poor goaltending?
It's bound to happen at some point this season. Those things happen to every team. But the fact that the Penguins are largely doing the opposite this season and earning points even in games where they're outplayed - such as both shootout losses to the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Flyers - says a lot about the level of fight and resilience in this group.
They're playing like a team with nothing to lose and everything to prove. There's not necessarily a stat that can properly quantify that. But this team certainly feels different. And a lot of that is simply because they're finding ways to win - not lose - hockey games.
Breaking: Crosby Records 1,700th Career Point
<a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/pittsburgh-penguins">Pittsburgh Penguins</a>' captain Sidney Crosby is seemingly hitting milestones on a nightly basis.
And, last I checked, teams that win a lot of hockey games are usually just good hockey teams - and wins are always rewarded at the end of the regular season.
We'll see how the rest of this season plays out for the Penguins. But, regardless, the future looks a whole lot brighter than it did a year ago - and that's what happens when a team outshines its own expectations.
Bookmark THN - Pittsburgh Penguins on your Google News tab to follow the latest Penguins news, roster moves, player features, and more!