If the Pittsburgh Penguins continue to win hockey games and worsen their first-round draft positioning, the team could possibly look to move their 2026 first-rounder for an impact player
The 2026 NHL Draft will, without a doubt, be one of the deeper drafts in recent years, with some big-time talent set to be available in the early selection pool. Names such as Gavin McKenna, Keaton Verhoeff, and Carson Carels figure to headline the lottery range of the draft, and there is still a lot of talent in the slots to follow.
A few months ago, many were under the impression that the Pittsburgh Penguins would be in contention for one of those slots. Even if they weren't going to be a lottery team - especially after electing to keep their best trade chips in Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, and Erik Karlsson - many presumed they'd be selecting in the top half of the draft.
But given the season the Penguins are having, that seems unlikely to be the case.
Right now, Pittsburgh sits second in the Metropolitan Division with 65 points, which is just six behind the Carolina Hurricanes for the division lead and tied with the New York Islanders - sitting in third - yet having two games in hand on them. They've also created some separation between themselves and the Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals, who sit six points back and have played one and three more games than the Penguins, respectively.
If they can continue to string together wins - and their season does produce a playoff result - it may end up making things quite interesting for their 2026 first-round pick.
If the season ended now, the Penguins would be selecting 22nd overall, which is a number that could, potentially, keep hiking up if the Penguins continue to win hockey games. If that pick becomes a late-20s first-rounder, there is not a whole lot of separation between the impact value of that pick versus a low-30s second-round pick.
And that's exactly what the Penguins are, likely, on track to have from the Winnipeg Jets, the reigning President's Trophy winners who currently have the fourth-worst record in the NHL. Pittsburgh owns Winnipeg's second-round pick this season thanks to the trade that sent defenseman Luke Schenn to the Jets just prior to the deadline last season.
According to Jacob Billington of the Hockey Writers, if the Penguins venture into that high-20s range - let's say 26th overall or above - only 12.7 percent of players selected at 26th overall have produced more than 500 NHL points. At 27th, 28th, and 29th, 7.2 percent. At 30th, 5.4 percent. The 31st and 32nd haven't existed long enough for a large sample size.
But venture into the entirety of the second round? 4.7 percent of players have registered 500 or more NHL points. And that's the average for the entirety of the second round, not the upper second-round, where the percentage is skewed a bit higher.
So, in terms of an impact player, they have a nearly equal chance of drafting someone early in the second round that could make a relatively substantial NHL impact as they would drafting late in the first round. And in terms of positional need, the Penguins need defensemen in their system, and there are plenty of defensemen projected to be available in that 25-32 and 33-40 range.
Of course, the more swings you take in this range, the higher likelihood a team has of at least one of those players panning out. Pick quantity is an important part of the drafting, scouting, and development puzzle.
However, if the Penguins do make the playoffs - given the fact that their system is already on the upswing, that they have 15 picks in the first, second, and third rounds for the next three years, and that the 2026 NHl draft class is deep into the second round - would it be a worthwhile gamble to leverage that late first-round pick in a package for a young, impact NHL player this summer?
The unrestricted free agent pool is shaping up to be a bit thin this summer, as many of the bigger names have already signed extensions. However, the restricted free agent pool is a different story, and the Penguins may be able to take advantage of a few teams either looking for that first-round draft capital or open to moves due to their cap situation.
Obviously, the most notable name is Jason Robertson, but the Dallas Stars would be best-served to do anything they possibly can to re-sign him - even if it means jettisoning other contracts. If he does become available, the Penguins should absolutely be willing to pay the price, but there are other intriguing names out there as well.
One is Jets center Cole Perfetti, a 24-year-old who is having a bit of a rough campaign after three promising seasons. With the Jets near the basement while carrying an aging core despite a lot of young talent on the way, Perfetti might be someone who becomes available for the right price.
On the defensive side, a guy like Pavel Mintyukov might be a worthwhile gamble, as he's fallen a bit out of favor with the Anaheim Ducks but might not be worth a first-round pick. Perhaps even Ottawa Senators blueliner Jordan Spence or Los Angeles Kings defenseman Brandt Clarke could be had for the right price.
Adn that's only the RFA trade market. The trade market as a whole will also be open for business, exposing the Penguins to other potential opportunities like St. Louis Blues center Robert Thomas, Vancouver Canucks center Elias Pettersson, Seattle Kraken center Shane Wright, New York Rangers blueliner Braden Schneider, or Jets defenseman Logan Stanley. All of these players could help the Penguins both now and down the line.
Regardless of whether or not the Penguins do end up making the playoffs - and if they do consider dealing their 2026 first-round pick - the fact that this discussion can even be had in a season where most thought the Penguins would be rebuilding speaks volumes. The truth is that the Penguins are a good hockey team, and there looks to be some sustainability for the next few seasons, as there is more talent on the way, and the Penguins have a boatload of cap space and draft capital to work with.
Good teams make the right decisions in these situations. And given Penguins' GM and POHO Kyle Dubas's track record since last summer, it's pretty safe to say that he'll make the right one when the time comes.
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