Canada versus the United States in women's hockey is the best rivalry in sport. The scales have tipped toward the United States, but Canada's veterans will want their final gold before this roster is disbanded.
Canada and the United States are set to face off for gold for the seventh time in eight Olympic Games. The two women's hockey nations are the most decorated in the sport and boast one of the most intense rivalries in all of sport.
USA enters as the heavy favorite having beaten Canada seven straight games in the last year, including a Rivalry Series sweep, a record 10 goal performance, and the biggest goal differential by an American team over Canada at the Olympics in men's or women's hockey history.
Can Canada Stir The Pot Enough?
Canada cannot win a wide open skilled game against Team USA. The Americans are too fast, too skilled, and too physical. What Canada can win is a bogged down, gritty, antagonistic game. Canada needs to harness the cantankerous nature of the rivalry and find a way to slow down the game, and run USA's more hot heated players, goading them into penalties. In particular, Canada should look to get players like Abbey Murphy off her game. We've seen players like Murphy and Britta Curl unravel before, and bench boss John Wroblewski was visibly animated in moments when USA was well in control, prompting moments when his team lost their momentum.
On Canada's side, Marie-Philip Poulin remains injured, and she's at her best when she's irked. The rest of Team Canada needs to find the same passion and intensity of Captain Clutch, and not sit complacent in the knowledge that the vast majority of their roster already has Olympic gold medals.
Canada's power play has been the best in the tournament, so earning opportunities with the player advantage is a must. The only problem for Canada is that USA has killed 100% of their penalties in the tournament.
A Fast Start Is The Key
USA hasn't started well in any of their games at the 2026 Olympics. In each they've taken time to settle into their attack. After scoring 31 goals in the tournament, seven came in the first period. Only three came prior to the 13 minute mark of the first period.
Aside form their four goal first period against Czechia, Canada hasn't been great in the first either. To beat the United States, Canada will need to do something to the United States no other team has, hold a lead. They could hope for a comeback and overtime win where no lead is required, and anything Canada can do to keep it closer longer is a huge benefit.
Sometimes it's first goal wins, and Canada can't afford to try to claw back from behind against the high powered Americans. If Canada is forced to open up the game, it will only benefit Team USA's skill and speed.
USA continued to discuss how they haven't peaked yet as a team. If that peak comes in the gold medal game, it's bad news for Canada.
Will We Finally See A Goaltending Duel?
The last three gold medal games between Canada and USA have been high scoring affairs. Goaltending hasn't decided anything. Those games were 6-3 USA, 6-5 Canada, and 4-3 USA.
It's been Ann-Renee Desbiens against Aerin Frankel in each, and two of the best goaltenders in the world can both be dominant, but the gold medal atmosphere has proven more about scoring than stingy defending and goaltending. Desbiens needs to change that trend. She's the reigning PWHL Goaltender of the Year and Canada's best hope for gold. Good goaltending won't win a gold for Canada, although it might be enough for Frankel and the United States.
Aerin Frankel however, has been better than good this season in the PWHL and internationally. Could we finally see a goaltending duel?
The Last Installment
This will be Hilary Knight's final Olympic game. It could be the final Olympics for Kendall Coyne Schofield as well. On the Canadian side, it's likely the last time Canadians see any of their own legends including Brianne Jenner, Natalie Spooner, Desbiens, Sarah Nurse, Jocelyne Larocque, Erin Ambrose, and perhaps Marie-Philip Poulin.
While gold is on the line, and a ferocious contest is set to ensue, there's more on the line in 2026 as the game will mark an end of an era, whether it comes with gold or silver for Canada, and potentially the beginning of a golden era for the United States as their youth will only get better in the years to come.
The level of emotion tied up in this game for those knowing this is their final Olympic performance should not be overlooked, and could become a scale tipping factor.