The Oilers missed their chance to improve between the pipes over the offseason.
The Oilers missed their chance to improve between the pipes over the offseason.
They say you can't win without good goaltending.
This year's Edmonton Oilers are proving it. They're only 2-4, with a -12 goal differential. That's despite posting excellent even-strength numbers. Their expected goals percentage (per MoneyPuck) is 60.34%, the second highest in the league. How come that good process isn't leading to wins? Are the numbers lying to us?
Not exactly. We've already discussed their putrid shooting percentage and their anemic powerplay, but that's not the biggest issue in Edmonton right now. Their problem is a common one: they just can't get a save.
The Oilers' team save percentage through six games is .851. That's somehow not the worst in the league (thank you to Alexandar Georgiev and the Colorado Avalanche, who own a SV% of .832), but it's certainly very bad. Now, obviously, it's not going to stay this bad forever. .851 is unsustainably bad, and that figure will regress upwards at some point.
But it's certainly not something the Oilers can afford to wait around on, and it's uncomfortably similar to last season. Just like this time last year, the team in front of the goalies is playing just a little below expectations and getting no help from the last line of defence.
Two changes turned things around for the Oilers' goaltending last season: replacing Jay Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch, and replacing Jack Campbell with Calvin Pickard. If the goaltending is still a problem by the time the calendar flips to November, what can this year's Oilers do about it?
They're not going to fire the coach. At least, things would have to get much, much worse for that to happen. They brought back Calvin Pickard on a two-year contract over the offseason, making a clear statement about their goaltending: Stuart Skinner is The Guy, and we believe in Cal Pickard as a capable backup.
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Now, I've generally been a staunch Stuart Skinner defender. He might not be in the absolute upper echelon of NHL goalies, but he's certainly at the top of the next tier down. When he's on, he's about as good a big-game goalie as you'll see, something he proved during last season's playoff run.
But there's a reason he's not in that upper tier, and the reason is consistency. Lots of goalies can look really good for a stretch, but only a few can do that over a full 60-game starter's workload. If you don't have one of those guys, you need some help. Not just a backup, but someone to help share the load.
Calvin Pickard performed admirably last season, but he's a pure backup, not a 1B. You probably don't want him shouldering too much of a workload when Skinner is struggling. At any rate, he's been just as bad as Skinner to start the year. If things continue like this, Pickard is the easiest piece to replace.
The best time to address this would've been during the offseason. The goalie carousel was in full swing over the summer, with goalies being traded for a pittance all over the league. The Oilers weren't in the market for a star like Linus Ullmark or Jacob Markstrom, but they absolutely could've swung for someone at the lower end of the market.
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Filip Gustavsson and Mackenzie Blackwood were both rumoured to be on the trading block and could've made good partners for Skinner. Gustavsson is probably safe in Minnesota now that Marc-Andre Fleury has started his retirement tour, Driedger and Blackwood could both be pried out of his current situation.
Blackwood's surface-level numbers last year were nothing special, but he performed admirably behind a truly awful Sharks team. He saved 2.4 goals above expected last season, just slightly more than Stuart Skinner. He's had a roller-coaster career but was once a promising young netminder in New Jersey. With Yaroslav Askarov on the way in San Jose, they could be looking to shop Blackwood. If they are, the Oilers have no reason not to be in on him as a 1B to Skinner's 1A.
If not, they might be in trouble, because most teams' goaltending situations look pretty stable at the moment. Semyon Varlamov has always been good and deserves better than to be Ilya Sorokin's backup on Long Island, but at 36 years old and under contract until 2026-27 he's a very risky bet. Otherwise, the Oilers might have to hope that someone shakes free from a rebuilding team. Laurent Brossoit reunion, anyone?
Ideally, this is a problem that solves itself. The Oilers put faith in this tandem, and can't pull the plug after just six games. Goaltending is weird, and it's entirely possible one of Skinner or Pickard goes on an insane heater for the rest of the year. But early returns have been bad, and the Oilers absolutely cannot afford to let goaltending torpedo their season.
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