If Auston Matthews is willing to stick out a retool, the Toronto Maple Leafs' next GM must get back into the playoffs right away. But if he's uncertain about his future past 2027-28, it's time to clean house.
Before the Toronto Maple Leafs hire a new GM and possibly a new coach — and long before they decide to either blow things up completely or treat this year as an anomaly and try to get back into the playoffs — the franchise must first ask a simple, yet complicated, question: what does Auston Matthews want?
Does the Leafs captain, who has another two years remaining on his contract, want to stick around past 2027-28? Or, like Mitch Marner before him, is he done with all of this?
Either way, you need an answer. And you need it as soon as possible. Because everything the Leafs do from this point forward is predicated on whether Matthews believes he is part of the problem or part of the solution.
He is the compass that dictates whatever direction the Leafs decide to move in.
If Matthews has no intention of re-signing with the Leafs, then you've got to trade him this summer and start the rebuild. But if he's willing to stick it out and be part of a one-year retool, then the next GM has to try and get back to the playoffs as soon as possible.
And if he isn't sure of what he wants, well, then you probably also have your answer.
The worst thing the Leafs could do is move forward without knowing whether Matthews is on board or not. Maybe that's an example of letting the tail wag the dog, but let's face it: Matthews is the one holding all the cards right now.
The challenge for the Leafs is to get him to reveal what hand he is holding.
Not only is Matthews the captain, but he's also the team's highest-paid and most talented player. More importantly, he is Toronto's most valuable asset.
Matthews, who underwent season-ending surgery earlier this month, is only 28 years old. He's still in his prime. While he's had two straight injury-plagued seasons where his offensive production has dropped, he's only two years removed from scoring a league-leading 69 goals. As we saw at the Olympics, where he captained the U.S. to a gold medal in a mostly shutdown role, Matthews can be a difference maker in a variety of ways.
If he wants out, there will be a long list of teams looking for his services. But you can't wait two years before making him available on the open market.
The difference between trading Matthews now or waiting until he heads into free agency on July 1, 2028, is the difference between the impressive haul that Vancouver received (Zeev Buuim, Marco Rossi, a first-round pick) for Quinn Hughes and the pittance that Toronto received (Nicolas Roy) when they finally moved on from pending UFA Marner.
That's why getting an answer out of Matthews has to be the top priority.
If Matthews believes this season was an anomaly and is open to re-signing with the Leafs, then the next move is hiring a GM who can turn this ship around as quickly as possible. Maybe you could try to get Peter DeBoer or Bruce Cassidy as a coach. Maybe you spend aggressively on free agents. Maybe you even trade a veteran like Morgan Rielly if it means you can get something back of equal value.
However, if Matthews isn't sure if he's going to re-sign in Toronto, then it's time to clean house. You not only have to try and find a landing spot for Matthews, but you might as well trade Rielly, William Nylander and whoever else can help you stock the cupboards with picks and prospects. As for the coach, it really doesn't matter whether you keep Craig Berube behind the bench or find a warm body that can steer you to the bottom of the standings.
But it all starts with Matthews. He has to make a decision on his future. And he has to make it now.
The last thing you want to do is go into the summer not knowing whether you’re rebuilding towards a future that includes your best player and No. 1 asset.
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