Can The Jets And Senators Be Successful In Spite Of Their Parting Stars?

A headline few probably expected at any point this season: By points percentage, the Ottawa Senators are tied for first in the Atlantic Division, and the Winnipeg Jets are first in the Central.

But that's why you play the games.

Plus, it's easy to see why anyone would be down on either team given how their summers went. Brady Tkachuk finally, officially asked out and got his wish, moving south but staying in the Atlantic Division after a meek post-season bow-out.

Senators fans are currently calling him James Bond, because he has contributed 0 goals, 0 assists, and 7 penalty minutes to the Panthers' start. And in Winnipeg, well, plenty of digital ink has been spilled on that; Connor Hellebuyck is still at home.

Is this a case of both teams just not needing their star players after all? Well, it's complicated.

For Ottawa, this always felt like addition by subtraction even if everyone acknowledges Tkachuk was a difference-maker for them. But all the off-ice stuff with his podcast and family really did seem to drive a wedge between himself and the team, to the point where it was reported that some in the Ottawa room were happy to see him go.

Tkachuk has missed 10 and 22 games in the last two seasons, respectively, and his TOI was way down last season. He's still a very effective player, but not as effective as he used to be, whether that was just a quirky "that's hockey" thing, because he had a foot out the door, or some other issue, is tough to say.

But within the broader context of how Ottawa played with or without Tkachuk on the ice last season, the structure was greatly improved last season. They were a top-10 offensive team by several metrics, including just total goals for (275, eighth in the league).

Their defensive numbers would have been better if not for the fact that their goaltending was among the worst in the league (they used five guys en route to a team save percentage of .882, not including empty netters). 

With this in mind, the question for Ottawa is simple: Did they do enough to replace Tkachuk's outgoing offense from last season? And within that very good structure, can they expect better goaltending this year? With Tkachuk, the answer is "probably," if only because his nominal replacement (William Eklund) has historically scored at a similar rate.

With the goalies, they need a full season of a healthy Linus Ullmark, because their backup is Samuel Ersson, arguably the worst goalie in the league over the last two seasons (28.2 goals saved below expected). But with a potentially softening Atlantic, maybe there's a little more cushion either way.

The Jets' Hellebuyck problem is harder to predict. They couldn't win with him being slightly above average last season, and given that he's just on the beach right now, neither contributing nor really harming them, it's a tough situation.

Stuart Skinner has been quite good to start the year, but you can ask the Edmonton Oilers how long you should count on him to deliver solid outings before he just goes off on a tangent of putrid performances. He's a perfectly good NHL goalie taken as a whole, but maddeningly inconsistent game-to-game, and when he's bad, he's really bad.

Playing behind a Jets team not historically known for insulating its netminders from risk, that could be a recipe for disaster. The alternative is new backup Clay Stevenson, who was the Washington Capitals' No. 3 goalie until a couple weeks ago.

With just five career NHL games under his belt at age 27, he's tough to project, but he's a big fella (6-foot-4) and carries a career .912 save percentage so they might or might not have something here. Maybe we wait until he hits career start No. 10 sometime this month before we pronounce the problem solved.

Plus, Hellebuyck may soon get traded and with that move GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will no doubt bring in at least a couple of NHL players who can add to the mix. If Stevenson plays well enough, it won't even necessarily need to be a goalie, and adding NHL talent to the middle (or perhaps upper-middle) of the roster would be a big help.

That said, they're also in the highly-competitive Central division. It's a good thing they're getting points now, before Dallas gets its head on straight (or a better coach) because Colorado, Utah, and Minnesota look as good as expected, and wins are going be at a premium basically all year.

Right now, Ottawa feels like a safe bet to at least be around the playoffs, with a higher ceiling than that. Because they mostly carry an "incomplete" grade for now, Winnipeg's hill seems, for now, a bit too steep for this roster to climb over 84 games.

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