Could Marchenko-Knies Swap Prove To Be Costly For The Maple Leafs?

Toronto Maple Leafs GM John Chayka has been the busiest executive since taking over from Brad Treliving.

After turning over more than half of their roster before the start of the season, Chayka made another big shakeup, shipping out Matthew Knies, Emil Andrae, Steven Lorentz and a 2027 second-round pick to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood, and Elvis Merzlikins.

Knies has been the subject of consistent trade rumors over the last year and was reportedly almost dealt by Treliving to the Montreal Canadiens before last March's trade deadline, but the change in management did not seem to silence the speculation.

The timing of the deal just before the season had to do with the Blue Jackets finally coming to an agreement on a long-term deal with RFA center Adam Fantilli, and wanting to resolve the situation with Marchenko, who indicated over the summer that he would not sign an extension to stay in Columbus. 

"(Marchenko) was a player that we deliberately targeted. We just felt like with our group, we needed another player that could dictate play, someone that could transport pucks and be a bit of a dual threat offensively." Chayka said on TSN's 1050’s Overdrive last week.

"As we looked at our forward group, we felt we were one short in terms of ability to do those types of things and do it at the highest level, and Kirill can do that."

The curious part of this deal is that the offensive numbers do not bore out the significant upgrade in production that Chayka is referencing.

The 6-foot-3, 200-pound Marchenko has scored 20 or more goals in each of his four NHL seasons, with a career-high of 31 two years ago, along two straight 40-assist campaigns in 2025 and 2026. After scoring 15 goals as a rookie, Knies has a pair of 20-plus goal seasons, with a career-high 29 two years ago.

The differences seem to be more positional and stylistic, as Marchenko is considered more of a offensive-minded right-shot who can play both wings. Knies has primarily been on the left side, where Toronto has a pair of youngsters in McKenna and second-year pro Easton Cowan, but is more of a prototypical power forward. 

The minimal upgrade has proven to be quite costly on the Toronto side of the ledger. The Maple Leafs had to take on Merzlikins' $5.4 million cap hit, but the goalie had off-season shoulder surgery and may not ever play for the Blue and White.

Wood is signed through 2029 at a $2.5 million AAV, one year longer and nearly twice as much as Lorentz's $1.35 million cap hit. Additionally, Toronto had to include a 2027 second-round pick, obtained from the Seattle Kraken in the Bobby McMann trade last March, but where it is may have the biggest impact will be on the cap going forward.

Knies was entering year two of a six-year contract at $7.75 million per season, while Marchenko agreed to a six-year, $75 million contract extension that will kick in after this season. That represents a $4.75 million bump over Knies.

The criticism of this deal is not whether Marchenko is good; but if he is $4.75 million better than Knies and so much better that he will be the second-highest-paid Maple Leafs player behind Auston Matthews.

The newest Blue Jacket scored two goals and an assist in his first game with Columbus on Oct. 1 and has four points in two games. Marchenko scored his first goal as a Maple Leaf in a 3-2 loss to Ottawa on Saturday and has two points in three games. 

Comparing the wingers numbers over the next few years will be an ongoing story, but the first impression is that the price in assets and salary cap that Chayka paid outweighs the benefits.   

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