The Dallas Stars had some concerning stats during the regular season, and the Minnesota Wild took advantage of them. That could lead to bigger conversations for Dallas if the Cup contenders lose in Round 1.
The ongoing playoff battle between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild has lived up to the hype.
While both teams were dominant in the regular season and are filled to the brim with talent, the more experienced group in Dallas has found itself on the brink of elimination in the first round after three consecutive trips to the Western Conference final.
To some fans, the results may come as a surprise.
The underlying numbers, however, suggest the Stars' issues in the first five games of the series might be a continuation of concerning trends that were building throughout the regular season.
5-On-5 Struggles
The glaring issue for the Stars in this series has been their inability to score at even strength.
Dallas hasn't scored a 5-on-5 goal since the first period of Game 1 and has been outscored 11-3 at full strength in the series.
While this may seem like a blip, the Stars' over-reliance on their special teams stretches beyond this series and was a reasonable concern for them heading into the playoffs.
Dallas scored the most power-play goals in the regular season but ranked 16th in total goals at 5-on-5.
In their last 15 games of the regular season, they were tied for the fourth-fewest goals at 5-on-5 despite putting together an 8-5-2 record in that span.
These numbers are shocking considering the star talent they possess and the depth they've been praised for throughout the regular season.
But these issues have caught up to them, and there's no room for error anymore.
Oettinger Underperforming
Then there's Jake Oettinger, who's losing the goaltending battle against a younger, inexperienced Jesper Wallstedt. The latter has emerged as one of the most promising netminders in the NHL this year.
Oettinger's .899 save percentage and 2.78 goals-against average are uninspiring but don't entirely illustrate the concerns about his play.
He has minus-2.22 goals saved above expected, according to hockeystats.com. He ranks 13th out of 17 playoff goaltenders who have played at least three games in that category.
Additionally, Oettinger's expected save percentage, which measures the save percentage a goalie should have achieved based on the quality of shots faced, is .913 in the series — significantly higher than what he's actually put together.
Stats courtesy of hockeystats.com. Click on the image for the source data.The way Wallstedt and Oettinger have responded to high-danger scoring chances tells a huge story in this goaltending duel.
High-danger save percentage aims to indicate a goalie's effectiveness in critical scoring situations, and Wallstedt has simply been better in that area.
The Stars have given up fewer high-danger chances than the Wild at 5-on-5, according to naturalstattrick.com. But Wallstedt has stopped nearly 95 percent of those chances, while Oettinger has stopped just over 79 percent.
While the Stars' offense has yet to make a true statement in support of their goaltender, Oettinger hasn't held up his end of the bargain either.
If they can't find a way to crawl out with a series victory, a greater conversation around Oettinger's status as a playoff performer will be warranted.
Wild Rising To The Occasion
All of these statistics suggest the Stars have underperformed, but that shouldn't take away from how well the Wild have played.
Wallstedt's impact cannot be understated. He's got a .926 save percentage and 2.05 goals-against average through the first five playoff games of his career. He's risen to the occasion.
On top of that, Quinn Hughes and Brock Faber have been the most dominant defensive pair in the playoffs, playing more than any duo while not being on the ice for a single 5-on-5 goal against. That's all while being significant offensive contributors, producing five points each.
Hughes and Faber are constantly putting the Stars defenders on their heels with their ability to activate in the rush.
The Wild have put the Stars in uncomfortable positions throughout the entire series, and Dallas has failed to make the adjustments that the playoffs demand.
With the Wild taking control in a way that is more conducive to playoff success, this series could represent a changing of the guard in the Western Conference if things don't change quickly.
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