Memo To The Maple Leafs: Don't Overthink This

Memo to the Toronto Maple Leafs: Don't overthink this.

Do not trade down for more draft picks. Do not overreach and take a defenseman or a centre. Don't get cute.

Just select Gavin McKenna with the No. 1 overall pick and be happy that you've got someone to pair alongside Auston Matthews who is a left-shooting version of Mitch Marner, albeit much younger and cheaper. From there, throw a ton of money at pending UFAs Darren Raddysh and Alex Tuch, fire coach Craig Berube and replace him with Bruce Cassidy — and just like that, the Leafs could be back in the playoffs and contending for a Stanley Cup by this time next year.

It's really that simple. Or, it should be.

And yet, in a complicated draft class where even The Hockey News' draft experts cannot agree on who should go No. 1 overall — Ryan Kennedy has McKenna, while Tony Ferrari prefers Sweden's Ivar Stenberg — there might be a temptation to galaxy brain this decision and do something silly, especially now that the management group has changed.

What will GM John Chayka's first draft look like in Toronto? Maybe we should ask ChatGPT. 

Whatever you do, don't look at Chayka's past drafts in Arizona.

While he deserves credit for selecting Clayton Keller with the in 2016, he chose Viktor Soderstom (11th overall) over Minnesota's Matt Boldy (12th) and Montreal's Cole Caufield (15th) in 2019. But his biggest miss might have come in 2018, when Chayka had the fifth-overall pick and used it to select Barrett Hayton, mostly because he was the best centre available. In doing so, Chayka passed on taking defensemen such as Quinn Hughes (seventh), Evan Bouchard (10th) and Noah Dobson (12th), who NHL Central Scouting all had ranked higher than Hayton.

This year provides a lot of options. There's a group of defensemen who all have the potential of becoming the best player in the draft. There's a couple of centres who could develop into franchise stars. And there's debate over whether McKenna or Stenberg is the most dynamic winger.

There's a lot to chew on. And a lot to get wrong.

This isn't the same as in 2016, when the Leafs selected Matthews over Patrik Laine. Or even last year, when New York Islanders' Matthew Schaefer went No. 1 overall. None of the players are considered "generational type of talents."

There's confusion at the top. Talk to five different scouts and they'll give you five different top-5 lists. The only consensus is that McKenna is considered the safe pick.

As a December birthday, he's one of the oldest players available in the draft. He's also more polished. The 18-year-old from Whitehorse, YT, who scouts have compared to Patrick Kane, tore up the WHL a year ago with 129 points in 56 games for Medicine Hat. This season, he scored 51 points in 35 games as a freshman with Penn State University. 

Put him on a line with Matthews and we could see the two-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner get back to scoring 69 goals. At the very least, we might see a smile appear on Matthews' face again.

At the same time, Matthews is not the one making the pick — Chayka is. 

If you watch the playoffs, the success of the Colorado, Minnesota, Montreal and Buffalo will tell you that you won't get anywhere without a No. 1 defenseman. The Leafs have not had one of those since Borje Salming came over from Sweden in the early 70s. So there's going to be a temptation to overreach — or trade down — and select one of either Chase Reid, Keaton Verhoff or Carson Carels. 

With John Tavares getting older, there might also be a need for a centre — especially if Matthews decides to leave in a couple of years. That makes someone like Caleb Malhotra or Tynan Lawrence particularly enticing. And maybe if the Leafs had the third-overall pick, you could see them going in this direction.

But this is not a draft to take chances on. You can't get this one wrong. And you can't wait around to be proven correct.

The Leafs, who finished with the fifth-worst record in the NHL this year after qualifying for the post-season in nine consecutive seasons, need to get back to contender status. And they need to do it as quickly as possible. 

That means not only taking the best player, but also the most NHL-ready player. 

McKenna is a year older than Verhoff, Carels, Malhotra and Lawrence. You can plug McKenna into a top-line role next season and expect him to reasonably succeed. After that, the Leafs' summer wish list doesn't look so daunting: just sign a top-4 defenseman and a top-nine forward in free agency, trade one of their goalies for depth, and figure out who's coaching.

It should be really easy. And it could be.

But it all begins by not screwing up the No. 1 pick.