The Stanley Cup final is here, and the Vegas Golden Knights face their toughest test yet in a dominant Carolina Hurricanes squad. Fresh off a near-perfect post-season run, the Hurricanes’ stifling defense faces a battle-tested Golden Knights roster. Which team will win it all?
The 2025-26 Stanley Cup final has arrived, as the Western Conference champion Vegas Golden Knights will be facing the Eastern Conference champion Carolina Hurricanes in a battle for what would be the second championship in each franchise’s history.
After going 7-5 in our predictions through two rounds, we went 1-1 in the conference final, picking Carolina to beat the Montreal Canadiens while picking the Colorado Avalanche to beat Vegas. So we’re now 8-6 with this year’s picks. Could be better, could be worse.
The roads Vegas and Carolina took to the Cup final were significantly different. The Hurricanes have lost only one game in this current post-season – a loss to the Habs in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final – and they’ve swept the Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers.
Meanwhile, the Golden Knights needed six games to beat the Utah Mammoth and Anaheim Ducks in the opening two rounds, and four games to beat Colorado in the third round. Thus, there’s more wear-and-tear on Vegas than there is on Carolina.
The Golden Knights will face their biggest challenge in the Canes, and we’d be shocked if this Stanley Cup final was a short series.
Both sides will look good at times, but in the end, one side will minimize mistakes and make the most of their scoring chances, and that will decide which team hoists the Cup.
With that said, here’s our pick for the final. Remember, these predictions are educated guesses, so don’t knock yourself out in a rage if we don’t get this right.
Carolina Hurricanes (M1) Vs. Vegas Golden Knights (P1)
Season series: Golden Knights 2-0
Why Carolina will win: The Hurricanes had one hiccup game against Montreal. Other than that, they’ve been perfect, and although they lost their two regular-season games against the Golden Knights, both games were played before November. And the Carolina team Vegas didn’t see is the one that went 25-7-3 in their final 35 regular-season games.
Carolina has the seventh-best offense in these playoffs, averaging 3.23 goals per game. But it’s their defense that’s most impressive, as they have the league’s best goals-against average of 1.62.
Vegas has the third-best GAA, but they’re averaging 2.38 goals-against per game, 0.76 more than the Hurricanes.
Some of that can be chalked up to the stellar play of Hurricanes goalie Frederik Andersen. He’s gone 12-1, while posting a .931 save percentage and a 1.41 GAA along with three shutouts.
He’s fortunate to be playing behind a mobile, savvy defense corps and a responsible group of forwards. And Andersen has the full confidence of coach Rod Brind’Amour, one of the game’s best coaches.
All-in-all, the Hurricanes deserve to be the favorite in this series, even if only a slight favorite. At their best, they’ve sliced-and-diced opponents who thought they could hang with them, and Carolina has a terrific balance of young players on the rise and experienced veterans stepping up with solid performances.
The Golden Knights deserve their respect, but the Canes have the talent, the coaching and the goaltending to outlast Vegas and get into the winner’s circle.
Why Vegas will win: The Golden Knights have gotten great goaltending from Carter Hart (.924 SP, 2.22 GAA), and star right winger Mitch Marner has been arguably the best player in the post-season, with 21 points in 16 games.
They’ve also got excellent contributions from Jack Eichel (18 points), Pavel Dorofeyev (10 goals), Brett Howden (10 goals) and Ivan Barbashev (12 points).
There’s an amazing balance here, and you have to give coach John Tortorella credit for pressing all the right buttons with this Golden Knights team. And Hart has provided the stability in net that wasn’t there all season long for Vegas.
They have all the pieces in place to succeed, and GM Kelly McCrimmon deserves his flowers for once again constructing a winner.
From this organization’s first days, they’ve made it clear – they’re in it to win it, and Vegas has the depth, veteran know-how, and netminding to push the Hurricanes to their limit.
Ultimately, we’re picking Carolina to win this series. But Vegas’ talent and determination mean this isn’t going to be a short series. There isn’t much separating the Hurricanes and Golden Knights on paper, and we believe the Canes will be only marginally better than Vegas.
Carolina isn’t flawless, but they make up for their few issues by dominating in many other areas. And that’s why the Hurricanes are our pick to win it all.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six games
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