The New York Islanders flirted with a playoff spot this year, but a late-season collapse and a coaching change showed how far this franchise must go before they're a legitimate Cup threat.
The New York Islanders had some incredible luck after missing out on the playoffs last year.
Despite having the 10th-best odds of drafting first overall, they won it and selected Matthew Schaefer, who looks like the favorite to win the Calder Trophy.
That sped up a retool, and the Islanders looked for chunks of this season like they'd bounce back and make the playoffs for the third time in four years.
Alas, they didn't. Sunday's loss to the Montreal Canadiens eliminated the Isles from playoff contention.
What Went Wrong For The Islanders?
The Isles lost six of their last seven games in regulation.
During that span, the Islanders fired coach Patrick Roy and brought in veteran bench boss Peter DeBoer with only four games in the season.
The Islanders ran into a buzzsaw of playoff-bound teams, losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, Carolina Hurricanes, Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens. The Isles were outscored 27-11 in those six losses.
In the end, while the Islanders' future with budding star defenseman Schaefer looks promising, their structural deficiencies are still significant enough to keep this team from being a legitimate Cup contender.
The Islanders have scored the eighth-fewest goals per game in the NHL this season, with 2.81. Last year, they were tied for the fifth-fewest goals-for per game, with 2.71, so there's very little improvement when the Isles have the puck.
Thanks in part to a strong season for goaltender Ilya Sorokin, the Islanders' ranking for goals against per game went from 20th last season to sixth this season. It still wasn't enough to carry them past their offensive struggles.
But really, should we have expected any different from the Isles' offense?
This is, after all, a team that has only three players with more than 42 points this year. The top scorer on Long Island – center Mat Barzal – has only 71 points in 80 games. When you compare the Islanders' top offensive players with their rival teams in the Metropolitan Division, you quickly realize there's still work that needs to be done to improve the scoring depth.
What Comes Next For The Islanders?
Now, this isn't to say the Islanders aren't in good hands with GM Mathieu Darche.
He showed this season he was willing to make a playoff push, acquiring center Brayden Schenn from the St. Louis Blues, as well as adding defenseman Carson Soucy from the New York Rangers.
Darche will have $14.3 million in salary cap space to use this summer, but if he intends to re-sign captain and pending UFA Anders Lee, he's going to have to spend a fair amount of that cap space.
That will mean the Islanders won't be big-game hunters in free agency, meaning they'd have to make more trades to seriously upgrade the squad.
In addition to Schaefer, the Islanders' youngsters and prospects include Calum Ritchie, Cole Eiserman, Kashawn Aitcheson, Victor Eklund and Danny Nelson. That will give them a long-term boost.
But if the Islanders want to do some damage in future playoffs, they likely need more help. Since Darche has all three of his first-round draft picks in the next three drafts, you'd ideally like to see him stock the shelves with more picks and prospects.
The Islanders also have one of the NHL's better goaltenders in Sorokin, who's had a .906 save percentage and 2.68 GAA this season. They aren't as strong as his .924 SP and 2.34 GAA, in 2022-23, but he is one of the contenders for the Vezina Trophy this season and should remain their long-term starter.
DeBoer, meanwhile, wasn't hired just to try to get this team in the playoffs this spring. Darche made that clear.
DeBoer will be expected to bring more structure to the Islanders' defense so that Sorokin won't have to carry the squad in the defensive zone. His experience and expertise could be extremely beneficial for Schafer's development as well.
The Isles have some pieces other teams would kill to have. Schaefer will be a huge star in hockey's top league, and he plays a position where most teams don't have elite players.
So Darche must continue going about his business and transitioning his team into an era where the Islanders can go head-to-head with any opponent and expect to win.
One day, the Islanders are going to have a deep, talented and young team. But that day is not today. There will be more growing pains before the Isles rise up the Metro ranks and stay there.
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