The Vancouver Canucks have defied expectations all season long, but doubters remain for their Cup chances in a dangerous Western Conference. It's time they deserve credit.
As we enter the last calendar month of the 2023-24 NHL regular season, the Vancouver Canucks are looking to prove that they’re no April Fool.
On Saturday, they qualified for the post-season for the first time in four seasons. On Sunday, they hit the 100-point mark for the 10th time in franchise history.
The Canucks are 13-9-3 since the all-star break. That's respectable, but it has been enough of a dip from the first half of the season to cause some nerves among the fan base, which hasn't seen a home playoff game since 2015 or a series win since the euphoric and heartbreaking run to the Stanley Cup final in 2011.
With playoff tickets now available for purchase, the mood around Vancouver seems to be shifting toward cautious excitement — even if the Canucks still aren’t getting much respect from NHL observers.
The Western Conference is deep and dangerous.
You’ve got the defending champs from Vegas, which are 8-2-1 since the NHL trade deadline. You’ve got the 2022 Cup winners in Colorado, looking as opportunistic as ever, and you’ve got McDavid and Draisaitl dragging the Oilers from the depths of the standings all the way back into a home-ice advantage position.
Then there’s Dallas, winners of seven straight and currently tops in the conference, and Nashville, coming off a 16-0-2 point streak and now within four points of catching Winnipeg.
Add in the Canucks, and you’ve got six teams looking to make meaningful runs. And the math is simple: at least two won’t get out of the first round.
But is it so cut-and-dry that the Canucks will be one of the teams on the golf course by May?
The skepticism was understandable when they demolished Edmonton 8-4 in their season opener and even when they blasted their way to a 10-2-1 first-month record. Critics pointed to their PDO rating of 1.092, built off a team save percentage of 95.12 and a shooting percentage of 14.12 percent at 5-on-5, which were both tops in the league.
Since PDO is meant to represent puck luck and the randomness that’s a natural part of hockey, the Canucks were expected to regress. And they have.
But after beating the Anaheim Ducks 3-2 on Sunday, Vancouver goes into its final eight games of the regular season still ranked first but now with a PDO of 1.033, according to naturalstattrick.com.
Even without injured Thatcher Demko for the last eight games, their team save percentage is fourth at 5-on-5 at 92.42. And their team shooting percentage of 10.87 is still the best in the NHL.
Brock Boeser is an important contributor to that number — converting on an even 20 percent of his shots this season.
When he scored four times against Edmonton on opening night, he laid the table for his best season yet. On Sunday, he tallied his career-high 38th, so he's now tracking to be the first Canuck to hit 40 since Ryan Kesler and Daniel Sedin both scored 41 goals in 2010-11.
If Boeser doesn’t keep his foot on the gas, he could get passed by J.T. Miller, who’s at 35 goals, or Elias Pettersson, who has 33.
In his fifth year in Vancouver, Miller has flipped the narrative about his hot-headedness upside down, becoming a fan favorite with his passionate, no-bull approach to the game.
And while Pettersson might not match his 102-point campaign from last year, he’s playing with a clear head now that his eight-year contract extension is signed, sealed and delivered.
On the back end, Quinn Hughes has embraced the challenge of being an NHL captain in a Canadian market — staying even-keeled and accountable while rewriting the franchise record books nearly every time he steps on the ice. He’s backed up by a blueline that has been re-made in the image of the Golden Knights — big and fast, with players like Nikita Zadorov, Noah Juulsen and Tyler Myers providing plenty of snarl.
The Canucks have gone 4-3-1 since Thatcher Demko pulled himself out of a shutout-in-progress against the Winnipeg Jets on March 9 with what has now been identified with a knee injury. He’s eligible to come off long-term injured reserve on April 6, and the team has given every indication that he’ll be ready to get some game action before the playoffs begin.
Demko is 34-13-2 this season. His 20.4 goals saved above expected are second only to Connor Hellebuyck, according to moneypuck.com. And if you wonder whether he has the mental toughness to excel in the post-season, think back to the 2020 playoffs and the introduction of ‘Bubble Demko’ — 128 saves on 130 shots over four games against Vegas for a GAA of 0.64 and a save percentage of .985.
Only a select few got to witness it live, but nearly all the Canucks players from the Edmonton bubble who remain on the roster punched well above their weight.
There was Demko. Miller and Pettersson led the team in scoring, each with 18 points in 17 games. Hughes had 16, and Boeser had 11, while injuries limited Myers to just 10 games.
Those players, with very limited playoff experience, won two rounds in extremely difficult circumstances and came within a game of upsetting Vegas.
Now, the Canucks have added Ian Cole’s two Cups in Pittsburgh, which came on a team where Rick Tocchet served as assistant coach and Jim Rutherford was running the front office, with Patrik Allvin as part of his staff.
With the luxury of a healthy blueline, the Canucks have already started resting their defensemen. Zadorov sat out against the Ducks, while Juulsen and Cole have also been scratched.
After a nine-game homestand that Tocchet said left his team "stale," eight games remain for Vancouver. All eight are against Western Conference teams, five are on the road and five are against teams in playoff position — Vegas (twice), Los Angeles, Edmonton and Winnipeg.
Those games could offer a bit of a window into the Canucks' playoff prospects. But at this stage, wins and losses won't tell the whole story of what lies ahead for a team — and a fan base — that has waited since 2015 for proper post-season excitement back in Vancouver.
The Canucks have surprised all year. They've done enough to earn the benefit of the doubt in playoff time.