By retaining their star center at a record-breaking $18 million salary, Anaheim faces a sudden cap crunch that reshapes their roster strategy and long-term financial flexibility.
The Leo Carlsson offer sheet saga is over. The Anaheim Ducks announced on Thursday morning that they had matched the offer sheet Carlsson signed with the Philadelphia Flyers on Friday, July 3.
Carlsson (21) will remain a member of the Anaheim Ducks on a contract that will span the course of the next five years and carry with it an AAV of $18 million, rendering him the highest-paid player in the NHL for the upcoming 2026-27 season.
The ramifications of this contract will be felt league-wide in short order and have already been felt within the framework of the Ducks’ salary cap structure, as (seemingly) the threat of an offer sheet forced the Ducks’ hand and led them to sign defenseman Pavel Mintyukov (22) to a five-year, $7.2 million AAV contract.
In an offseason that was shaping up for the Ducks to be able to acquire a significant roster piece or two, given their cap space on June 30 and coming off their most successful season in nearly a decade, they will now be paying their core pieces considerably more than they likely anticipated or were projected.
“As you saw, there was plenty of cap space. We were prepared to accept offer sheets with all the cap space that we had. From that particular time, we had to deal with what we were going to have,” Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek said in his opening statement during Thursday’s press conference. “Now, did we expect the offer sheet to be this high? No. We did not see that one coming, but we're very confident in the sense that with the cap going up and with the ability of Leo to make great strides of improvement and become an elite player, we feel confident that this contract will be a good one in the end.”
Evolving Hockey had Carlsson’s contract projected at eight years and $10.6 million AAV, Mintyukov’s at two years and $3.5 million AAV, and Cutter Gauthier’s at eight years and $9.6 million AAV. AFP Analytics projections had Carlsson at eight years and $11.4 million AAV, Mintyukov at six years and $6 million AAV, and Gauthier at seven years and $8.8 million AAV.
From the end of the 2025-26 season until two weeks ago, the combined AAV of the Ducks’ three highest-profile RFAs could have been conservatively projected at around $26-30 million, but could now cost them closer to $40 million.
So, with this rare order of business out of the way, the burning question for the Ducks becomes, “Now what?”
According to Puckpedia, the Ducks currently have a projected $9 million in remaining cap space and Gauthier as their only current NHL RFA without a contract. Puckpedia’s projection includes Troy Terry’s entire $7 million AAV (he’ll likely start the season on LTIR, resulting in cap relief around the $3.5-4 million range), three goaltenders (one will likely be sent to the AHL), and waiver-exempt players like Nathan Gaucher and Tim Washe.
“Well, the intention is to get Cutter signed. I think that whatever Cutter comes in (at), I'm going to have some work to do to make sure that we can fit everyone in,” Verbeek said when asked about Gauthier’s upcoming deal and subsequent moves. “So I've got two and a half months to figure that out, and we'll go through that process for the rest of the summer.”
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn ImagesAssuming Gauthier’s new-market number comes in the $12-14 million AAV range, there is a world where the Ducks don’t necessarily need to move money out before the start of the NHL regular season. However, barring another devastating injury, further cap gymnastics will be required before Terry’s eventual return to the lineup, and that will likely come in the form of a trade involving money going the other way.
The most likely candidates for the Ducks to move on from appear to be Chris Kreider (35) and Alex Killorn (36). Kreider has one year left on his contract at a $6.5 million AAV, while Killorn has one year left at $6.25 million. They each have 15-team no-trade clauses for the 2026-27 season, but both players will likely have some value league-wide.
Beyond Kreider and Killorn, the only significant money remaining the Ducks could look to move off of comes in the form of forwards Mikael Granlund (two years, $7 million AAV remaining) and Frank Vatrano (two years, $4.57 million AAV remaining). Granlund (34) is now the Ducks’ projected clear-cut second-line center coming off a successful first season and playoff run with the team.
The contract the Ducks are likely the most willing to move on from is Vatrano’s. He had a difficult season in 2025-26, scoring just nine points (5-4=9) in 50 games and never meshed with head coach Joel Quenneville’s system or roster construction. Unfortunately, the Ducks missed their buyout window for Vatrano (32), which would have brought his AAV for the upcoming season down to $571k, resulting in $4 million of cap relief. They’ll now likely have to attach a pick (potentially a high one) to move on from his salary, as opposing teams are educated on the dire situation the Ducks are in, cap-wise.
Regardless of what money goes out, how much Gauthier ultimately signs for, and when Terry returns to the lineup, it’s becoming clearer that the 2026-27 season will most likely be a step back from 2025-26, which saw the Ducks qualify for the playoffs and advance to the second round.
“The part that I think everybody's nervous about, we have players underneath that are pushing to get a chance,” Verbeek said when asked about his team’s depth. “And so, we feel comfortable with the players that we have waiting in the wings to get their opportunity to play for the Ducks.”
Sophomore Beckett Sennecke, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe, and especially Leo Carlsson are solidified as the Ducks’ core moving forward and are expected to continue taking significant steps in their development toward stardom in 2026-27 and beyond. However, the amalgamation of the remaining 14 skaters in their nightly lineup is far thinner, less experienced, and less talented than their Game 6 lineup in the second round of the 2026 playoffs.
Unlike the previous few seasons, the Ducks will be relying heavily on youth to round out their depth chart this season. Forwards like Sam Colangelo (24), Nikita Nesterenko (24), and Nathan Gaucher (22) will likely receive extended looks up and down the lineup, with the potential of Anton Wahlberg (21) and Roger McQueen (19) getting some opportunities as well.
The blueline was the Ducks’ biggest question mark a week and a half ago, and that sentiment remains unchanged today. With Jackson LaCombe (25) as the unmistakable No. 1 defenseman and Nick Jensen (35) as the elder statesman and only player older than 30, the rest of the d-corps will likely consist of Drew Helleson (25), Ian Moore (24), Tyson Hinds (23), Pavel Mintyukov (22) and Tristan Luneau (22).
With a new, handsome contract in hand, Mintyukov will assume No. 2 defenseman duties. Helleson, Hinds, and Moore all have degrees of professional hockey experience and now NHL playoff experience under their belts. Luneau will be the Ducks’ wild card on the back end. If everything breaks right, he has the opportunity to shoot up the depth chart and the talent to become a breakout candidate this season.
Following the twists and turns of late June and into early July, the landscape of the NHL, and the Anaheim Ducks’ place within it, has become clearer and will continue to do so as the dust eventually settles.
For better or worse, the Ducks’ lineup will remain relatively as is for the upcoming season. They’d have a vastly difficult time adding a player or players of substance before late Sept.
The Ducks’ youthful core will be relied on even more heavily if they’re to remain in the playoff conversation in Spring 2027. Veterans will have to hold off Father Time for one more year as even more youth will be leaned on to provide depth to the lineup.
This offseason was always destined to be franchise-altering for the Anaheim Ducks and this was certainly an unexpected pothole, but this is when the true talent of a front office is revealed. Organizationally, the Ducks took a hit. Now they’ll be forced to learn, grow, and respond.
