Anaheim faces a franchise-altering crossroads: retain their cornerstone center at a record-shattering price or weaponize four unprotected first-round picks to redefine a roster suddenly flush with cap space.
The Anaheim Ducks and the hockey world were sent into a frenzy on Thursday when Ducks franchise center Leo Carlsson signed a rare and historic offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers in the form of a five-year contract with an $18 million AAV.
If the Ducks should choose to match, Carlsson at that very cap hit and contract structure will remain a member of the Anaheim Ducks. Structurally, his base salary will be league minimum, with the remainder of his money due to come in the form of signing bonuses.
If matched, the Ducks will be unable to trade Carlsson until July 1, 2027. The contract includes a full no-movement clause for the final year of the deal (2030-31), and he will be an unrestricted free agent upon expiry.
If unmatched, the Flyers will send their next four first-round picks to the Ducks, unprotected, as compensation for acquiring Carlsson. The Ducks have until July 10 to exercise their right of first refusal, determining whether or not they’ll match the offer sheet.
Presently, the Ducks have three NHL RFAs on their roster (Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, Tyson Hinds) and a projected $17.1 million in cap space, with Carlsson’s new contract taken into account, and holes on their depth chart, most notably on the right side of their blueline and at center behind Carlsson.
Gauthier is not eligible to sign an offer sheet, but Mintyukov and Hinds are.
Now comes the time to weigh the pros and cons and examine what the Ducks would look like if they decide not to match the Flyers’ offer sheet.
Stay tuned for Derek Lee’s opposing article on what the Ducks will look like if they decide to match
Outlook if the Ducks Do NOT Match
The Flyers and general manager Daniel Briere have put the Ducks and Pat Verbeek into a difficult situation, to put it lightly. The day before this offer sheet was signed, it was reported that the Ducks would match an offer sheet sent Carlsson’s way, and the Flyers called their bluff.
Whatever the outcome, it appears to be a lose-lose from the Ducks’ perspective. However, a decision must be made: lose what was the best prospect in franchise history and a budding superstar, or have an incredibly difficult time navigating and building around the most expensive AAV in the NHL.
If the offer sheet is unmatched, the Ducks’ salary cap space will increase from $17.1 million to $35.1 million. Sizable commitments will likely be on the horizon for Gauthier and Mintyukov. For this exercise (influenced by AFP Analytics), let’s assume they each sign eight-year contracts for a combined $20 million AAV. That would leave the Ducks with roughly $15 million in cap space heading into the 2026-27 season.
Though some useful players remain on the UFA market, it remains bereft of needle-movers. If the Ducks were intent on replicating Carlsson’s production and/or impact, they’d have to look elsewhere for the upcoming season.
With the way the 2026 offseason was shaping up for the Ducks, the 2026-27 season was already trending toward a slight step back. A trio of veteran UFA right-shot defenseman (John Carlson, Jacob Trouba, Radko Gudas) found new homes, two young roster pieces (Mason McTavish, Olen Zellweger) were traded for futures, and Troy Terry is scheduled to miss the first stretch of the season in recovery from offseason hip surgery.
The Ducks acquired forward AJ Greer, defenseman Nick Jensen, and goaltender Laurent Brossoit, but even with Carlsson included, the 2026-27 opening night lineup projects to be far less talented and experienced than the one that was iced in Game 6 of the second round of the 2026 playoffs against the Vegas Golden Knights.
Anaheim’s young pieces up and down the lineup will be forced to play elevated roles. Compounding that with the complementary veterans continuing to age, the Ducks may be staring down the barrel of a return to the bottom of the NHL standings.
Darren Yamashita-Imagn ImagesWhich brings us to the draft picks. The four first-round picks potentially acquired from the Flyers will be their own and will be unprotected. They were a playoff team in 2025-26 and advanced to the second round, so it’s likely those four picks are late first-rounders. However, hockey is unpredictable, so an injury or a poor year could lead to one (or several) of those picks landing at the top of a draft.
Those picks could also be used as trade ammunition. The Ducks would have eight first-round picks in the next four drafts, along with six in the second round.
If utilized effectively, the Ducks’ projected cap space and draft capital could provide ample avenues to continue building a sustainable, contending team for years to come.
This option depends largely on Verbeek’s ability to adequately utilize his new cap space and draft capital to build and better the organization in the present and future, a questionable aspect of his tenure thus far.
From a roster construction standpoint, Verbeek has yet to prove himself capable of adding top talent in their prime. His key acquisitions include high first-round draft picks (Pavel Mintyukov, Leo Carlsson, Beckett Sennecke, Roger McQueen), expensive veterans (Alex Killorn, Chris Kreider, Jacob Trouba, etc.), and Cutter Gauthier, a young star player who, more or less, “fell into his lap.”
Without Carlsson and without a clear path toward replacing him in the immediate future, the Ducks’ depth chart is bleak. Down the middle, they’d feature a potential combination of Mikael Granlund, Ryan Poehling, Tim Washe, Nathan Gaucher, and potentially Roger McQueen, with an outside possibility of Cutter Gauthier shifting to the middle. Whichever way that scenario would play out, that depth at the NHL’s most important position (arguable) is less-than-desirable.
The appetite for a setback will likely be absent, given the team’s recent success, emergence from an extended, painful rebuild, and with a brand new entertainment district (OCVibe) on the near horizon.
As mentioned, this scenario is a lose-lose for the Ducks. Losing Leo Carlsson or paying him double what their current highest-paid player (Jackson LaCombe, $9 million AAV) makes is anything but ideal.
However this ends, the optimistic perspective would hope that the way this saga has played out would alter how the Ducks approach negotiations with their RFAs moving forward, beginning negotiations sooner, and refraining from grinding out talks only to sign market value deals with their most talented and important pieces.
