
Let's go back to when the Mikko Rantanen trade happened; it was a bombshell report. With conflicting news and rumors about what Rantanen’s potential next contract might look like and how it might affect the Avalanche’s overall roster.
Add that to the “MacKinnon cap hit,” which meant that no one (outside of probably Cale Makar) was going to be paid higher than Nathan MacKinnon's recent $12.6 million cap hit.
In comes Martin Necas, a promising younger player who has shown what he can bring to the team when healthy and clicking, but it would be hard to match what Rantanen has already established. Fifty goal scorer, 100 point scorer, elite on the power-play, yes, Necas in the long run might be cheaper and younger, but it's going to be hard to replace what Rantanen has brought during his time with the team, or is it?
His first portion of the season with the team showed flashes, but just like Brock Nelson’s brief stint after being traded from the New York Islanders, it takes time to acclimate to a new system, line mates, and role, and he's doing exactly that this season.
When traded to the team, it's clear that while his offensive talents are different from Rantanen’s, his speed is what's going to really help change this team's formula, especially when playing with MacKinnon. The Avalanche already has a fast system implemented up and down the lineup, but now pairing Necas as an option to carry the puck up the ice frees guys like MacKinnon and Makar to play more open ice and match the speed of the puck carrier.
In the 30 games he played after being traded, he finished with 11 goals and 17 assists for 29 points. His playmaking and vision were easily the first attributes that contributed to his joining the team and to it continuing into this season as well.
In 61 games, he has 41 assists, 14 of them on the power play, which is a tall tale given how much higher his and his teammates' stats could be if their power play this season were one of the worst in the league, but that's a whole different story.
Whether it be Artturi Lehkonen, Gabriel Landeskog, or even Nazem Kadri now, his pairing with MacKinnon opens up a whole other layer than his time with the Carolina Hurricanes and the system Rob Brind’Amour coaches. Given their success in the regular season and deep playoff runs, a faster-paced offense really allows Necas to create more chances.
Necas has always finished in the 15-25 goal range each season, with his previous career high of 28 goals in the 2022-23 season, when he finished with 240 shots on goal for an 11.7 shooting percentage. Though those numbers started dropping each season, especially when he came to the Avalanche, he finished with only 81 shots on goal and 11 goals, for a 13.6 shooting percentage.
This season, we're seeing what a more comfortable and confident Necas looks like, and it's showing on the stat sheet: he currently has 30 goals on 156 shots, eight on the power play, for a 19.2 shooting percentage.
Its easy to look back in the days when Rantanen was on the team and he would be waiting on the hashmarks waiting for a one-timer from MacKinnon or create these chances that look like he has no angle to shoot anywhere but manages to squeeze some thing in the smallest of gaps, its why he was a 50 goal scorer, but with how many more chances we are seeing Necas take, could 30 be a good base line we expect going forward for him?
We see that the shooting percentage is up, and it's hard to predict how many shots on goal a player might finish the season with, but considering he's only at 150 and we’ve seen him finish with 240 shots during the 2022-23 season, is it wrong to expect a 40-goal-plus season?
What really made me write about Necas was his play before and after the Olympic break. Outside of the tremendous season he and the team are having, and how he might continue to grow as a player with his new contract kicking in next season, the question is just how well he has played recently, which could foreshadow an even better season for Necas in the coming years.
Heading into the break, Necas had 22 goals and 40 assists for 62 points, 11 of those points on the power play and 124 shots on goal. That, on an 82-game pace, would see him finish with roughly 35 goals, 63 assists for 97 points, and 195 shots on goal. A great season that every Avalanche fan would take if he produces at this level.
Taking in the small sample size of nine games he played coming out of the break, Necas has eight goals and nine assists for 17 points, six of those points on the power play, and 32 shots on goal. In a full 82-game pace, he finishes with 72 goals and 82 assists for 155 points and 291 shots.
I know, I know, that level is something we haven't even seen from guys like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews, or even MacKinnon, but we're now looking at him on pace finishing with 40 goals, 65 assists for 105 points, and 209 shots on goal. Which, on this current pace, is doable considering how well the team is playing despite some major injuries and the power play looking much better.
Necas will earn $11.5 million over the next eight seasons. Despite the cap supposed to go up a good amount over those four years, it's still going to be a significant cap hit on the team. Still, with the way he has been playing this season and if he can repeat this level, if not better, the following, the Avalanche are going to be just fine in this championship window of theirs.
