A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 5-3 win over the Sabres on Tuesday night in Buffalo
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 5-3 win over the Sabres on Tuesday night in Buffalo
On Tuesday night at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, the Detroit Red Wings earned their third consecutive win, beating the Sabres 5-3.
The Red Wings built what seemed an insurmountable 4-0 lead through two-and-a-half periods, only for Buffalo to score three straight, complicating matters before Dylan Larkin eventually iced the game with an empty-netter.
For a better sense of how this game was won, let's take a dive into the underlying numbers from Detroit's victory.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals, the Red Wings edged the Sabres 3.63-2.71.
Detroit dominated from puck drop, building a 2-0 lead on the scoreboard and a 0.971-0.085 advantage in xG through the game's opening 8:12. However, Buffalo flipped the script in the latter half of the period, and, by the end of the frame, the Sabres led 1.216-1.102 by xG (though they still trailed 0-2 on the scoreboard).
The Red Wings re-discovered their game in the second, which was the team's best period of the night. Over the course of period two, Detroit earned a 1.302-0.469 xG advantage, while outscoring their hosts 2-1.
In the third, the Red Wings couldn't be accused of coming out and turtling with a lead. As the below cumulative xG chart shows, Detroit continued to apply pressure for the first half of the period, but the Sabres nabbed a pair of goals.
Then, from roughly ten minutes into the frame through Larkin's empty-net goal with 46 seconds left, the Red Wings generated no attacking threat whatsoever. Nonetheless, thanks to Larkin's clincher, Detroit survived the late scare.
-At five-on-five, the Red Wings were not exactly dominant, but they controlled the slot at either end of the rink well enough to command play overall.
Per Natural Stat Trick, Detroit earned just a 38.46 CorsiFor% and a 47.37% share of scoring chances but a 57.89% share of high-danger scoring chances and a 52.55% share of xG (all numbers five-on-five). According to the site, 11 of the Red Wings' 18 five-on-five scoring chances were of the high-danger variety (i.e. from the slot).
In other words, this was a similar performance to Saturday night's win in Montreal—struggling to control the overall volume of chances but getting the lion's share of the premium chances in the slot.
The below heat map (of five-on-five unblocked shots) shows the way Detroit concentrated almost all of its offensive efforts (and all three five-on-five goals) from the inner slot. The Sabres generated some of those chances, but they also trafficked in a greater percentage of low-danger, perimeter chances.
Individual Impacts
-As has been the case throughout much of the Red Wings' strong post-Sweden form (six wins in seven games), Dylan Larkin set the pace for his team. He scored two goals on a game-high 1.04 individual xG and four shots on goal. He won 11 of the 16 face-offs he took, and he played 16:30 (missing a decent chunk of the third period after absorbing an awkward hit from Tyson Jost).
Larkin's line (with the Detroit captain centering Lucas Raymond and Joe Veleno) was also the Red Wings' best. The trio played 9:53 at five-on-five and dominated. They scored a goal, they didn't concede, and they earned an overwhelming 81.5% share of on-ice xG. Simply put, it was a phenomenal performance from Detroit's captain and top line.
The Red Wings' third line of David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Robby Fabbri was highly effective as well. In 6:19, the line played a low-event game but drove play in the right direction all night—earning a 76.8% share of in-ice xG (0.159-0.048), scoring a goal, and holding the opponent off the board.
The second line of Michael Rasmussen, J.T. Compher, and Alex DeBrincat played a roughly even game in 8:50 at five-on-five, accruing a 47.2% share of on-ice xG with no actual goals in either direction.
Finally, Tuesday represented a rare ineffective night from Detroit's fourth line of Klim Kostin, Christian Fischer, and Daniel Sprong. The trio played just 5:38 together at five-a-side but earned only a 39.1% share of on-ice xG. As we've discussed before, this line's role is more about driving play than actually scoring goals; their objective is to win shifts by extending play in the offensive zone. On Tuesday, they were not able to get that done.
-On the back end, the Jake Walman-Moritz Seider pairing dominated, playing 12:32 at five-on-five and earning an exemplary 73.8% share of on-ice xG in those minutes.
Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry constituted the Red Wings' busiest defense pair—playing 15:14 and earning a 34.1% share of on-ice xG.
While that latter figure isn't flattering, it's worth noting that—not unlike the Copp line—Petry and Chiarot did manage to keep the action down in both directions while they were on the ice. The Sabres owned a 0.53-0.275 edge by xG with that pair on the ice, but those relatively scant totals suggest a job done decently.
Finally, Shayne Gostisbehere and Olli Maatta more or less broke even in 11:22 of work together at five-a-side, posting a 48.6% share of on-ice xG.
-In goal, Tuesday represented Alex Lyon's first negative start by Goals Saved Above Expected in his Red Wings career. Lyon faced 2.712 expected goals and gave up three actual goals for a GSAE of -0.29.
To state the obvious, that's not exactly a disastrous performance and perhaps more a reflection of the perils of single game xG stats than anything else. None of Lyon's three goals against were galling by any means, it's not as though Lyon had an easy workload on the evening, and his negative margin was a slight one.
Maybe this performance represented a slight regression from Lyon (at least by the numbers), but it certainly wasn't a bad one, and, ultimately, it's tough to complain about 29 saves on 32 shots and a victory.
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